ORAWEK
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THURSDAY, 30 APRIL 2026
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Bangladesh Business & Economy
Brent hits $118. Trump says the blockade runs until Iran accepts a nuclear deal. Bangladesh's May cargo is now a prayer.
On Wednesday, President Trump told Axios directly: "The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing. They are choking like a stuffed pig." He confirmed the US naval blockade of Iranian ports will continue indefinitely — until Iran agrees to a nuclear deal, not merely a Hormuz reopening. Brent crude surged 6% to $118.03/bbl — its highest close since June 2022. WTI crossed $100 for the first time in four years, closing at $106.88/bbl. For Bangladesh: the Saudi crude cargo expected at Chattogram by May 2–3 is now navigating rerouted shipping through Yanbu (Red Sea). ADNOC has formally told customers they can receive UAE crude loaded outside the Gulf in June. These are not workarounds — they are confirmations that the Hormuz closure is being treated as semi-permanent by the producers themselves. Bangladesh's diesel stock remains critically low at ~10 days. If the May cargo is delayed further, load-shedding and fuel rationing return before mid-May.
UAE exits OPEC after nearly 60 years — OPEC's structural authority effectively ends
The UAE announced on Tuesday its departure from OPEC and OPEC+, effective May 1, 2026 — tomorrow. Abu Dhabi joined in 1967 and has been one of the cartel's most consequential members. The exit allows the UAE to pursue its own production timeline — targeting 5 million bpd by 2027 (up from ~3.4M now) — unconstrained by OPEC quotas. In the short term, with Hormuz closed and Fujairah repeatedly attacked, UAE production gains cannot reach markets anyway. But the structural signal is clear: the era of coordinated OPEC production management is fracturing under the pressure of the war. For Bangladesh's energy planners, this means the post-war supply recovery will likely be faster and more competitive, but the path there is still entirely dependent on when Hormuz reopens.
IMF World Economic Outlook released today — global growth slows to 3.1% under war shadow
The IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook — its flagship global report — publishes its full version today. The headline: global growth projected at 3.1% in 2026, down from recent outcomes, under the assumption of a limited conflict. The IMF warns that a prolonged war, deeper geopolitical fragmentation, or AI productivity disappointment could weaken growth further and "destabilize financial markets." Pressures are concentrated in emerging market and developing economies — commodity importers with existing vulnerabilities. Bangladesh is explicitly in that category: high import dependence, low reserves, and a banking sector under stress.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.725 ৳
XE.com mid-market · Apr 28, 21:22 UTC (last close)
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
17.95 ৳
XE.com mid-market · Apr 30, 01:40 UTC · live
DSEX (Apr 29, 2:30 PM)
5,317 pts
▲ +8.47 pts · +0.160% · 4th session in war-era range
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪২,৪৯৫ ৳
▼ −Tk 4,432 · 59th revision 2026 · Eff. Apr 29
Inflation Rate (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Down from 9.13% (Feb) · Q3 FY26 avg: 8.8% (BB)
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
36%
▲ 9 NBFIs in liquidation · Aviva admin active
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
✔ DATA CORRECTION: US Fed Rate has been 3.50–3.75% since December 2025 (three 25bp cuts in Sep/Oct/Dec 2025). Previous ORAWEK issues incorrectly cited 4.25–4.50%, which was the pre-cut rate. Corrected as of today. Source: CNBC, CNN, Fox Business — Apr 29, 2026 Fed decision confirmation.
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (Apr 29 close) $118 | $118.03/bbl ▲ +6.1% · Highest since June 2022 · Trump confirmed extended indefinite blockade · 9th straight session gain |
| WTI Crude (Apr 29 close) | $106.88/bbl ▲ +7% · Above $100 for first time this cycle · JPMorgan: $150+ if Hormuz stays closed to mid-May |
| Strait of Hormuz | Effectively closed · Trump: blockade until nuclear deal, not just Hormuz reopening · ceasefire holding but negotiations structurally collapsed · ADNOC offering out-of-Gulf loadings for June — first formal acknowledgment of semi-permanence |
| Iran War — Status | 10th week of war · Trump: "they are choking like a stuffed pig" · Iran has offered Hormuz reopening but refuses nuclear talks · US Navy blockade of Iranian ports continues · no ceasefire breakthrough in sight |
| UAE Exits OPEC TODAY | Effective May 1 (tomorrow) · 59-year membership ends · UAE targets 5M bpd by 2027 unconstrained · short-term irrelevant while Hormuz closed · long-term: post-war supply recovery faster and more competitive · OPEC's structural authority fracturing |
| Wall St (Apr 29 close) | S&P 7,135.95 (−0.04%) · Nasdaq 24,673.24 (+0.04%) · Dow 48,861.81 (−0.57%) · 5th straight losing day for Dow · After-hours: Alphabet +6%, Amazon +3%, Meta −6%, Microsoft ~flat |
| Big Tech Results OVERNIGHT | Alphabet: Google Cloud $20B (+63% YoY) — beat · AI enterprise demand confirmed · capex raised · Amazon: AWS $37.59B (+28%) — beat · Microsoft: Azure +40%, Intelligent Cloud $34.68B — beat · Meta: revenue +33% YoY BUT capex raised $10B more → shares −6% after-hours · AI spending verdict: real revenue confirmed, but Meta's cost escalation spooked investors |
| Apple — Reports Tonight | Apple reports Q1 FY26 after close today (Thu) · last of the Magnificent 7 this cycle · stock down ~1.3% this week · watch for iPhone demand, Services revenue, AI product commentary |
| US Fed Rate CORRECTED | 3.50–3.75% · Held unanimously · Powell's final meeting as Chair · 4 dissents (first since Oct 1992) · 3 Fed presidents opposed "easing bias" language · Kevin Warsh cleared Senate Banking Committee · Powell stays on as Governor |
| IMF WEO April 2026 TODAY | Full report published Apr 30 · global growth 3.1% (2026) under limited-conflict assumption · global inflation ticks up 2026 then declines 2027 · "risks decisively on downside" · commodity importers most vulnerable — Bangladesh explicitly in risk category |
| US–China Trade | ~45% tariffs on China hold · US sanctioning Chinese refiners buying Iranian crude · adds pressure on energy market · BD–US tariff: 19% — deal intact |
| Goldman Sachs / JPMorgan | Goldman: Q4 2026 Brent $90 avg (but current pace exceeds this) · JPMorgan: $150+ if Hormuz stays closed to mid-May · IEA: "largest energy security threat in history" |
| Saudi Arabia / BD Energy | Saudi crude rerouted via Yanbu (Red Sea) to bypass Hormuz · BD cargo due Chattogram May 2–3 · higher logistics cost and delay risk · diesel stock critical |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
The Big Tech AI verdict is in — and it is more nuanced than the market expected. Alphabet won the night: Google Cloud hit $20 billion in revenue, up 63% year-on-year — enterprise AI demand is real and accelerating. AWS grew 28%, Azure 40%. The AI infrastructure spending is generating real revenue. But Meta's shares fell 6% after-hours because it raised its 2026 capex by an additional $10 billion — investors who wanted proof of returns are now staring at another spending increase. The practical lesson for Dhaka professionals: the companies closest to enterprise customers (Google Cloud, AWS, Azure) are winning; the companies spending most on consumer AI infrastructure (Meta) are being punished for it in the short term. For anyone building with AI tools: Google, Amazon, and Microsoft products are likely to become more capable, faster — their AI businesses are growing into their investment. Apple reports tonight and may reset the consumer AI narrative entirely.
CNBC · NBC News · Yahoo Finance · April 29–30, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
April ends this morning and I want to be honest about what this month has looked like from Dhaka. We entered April with cautious optimism — a new government, a US trade deal, inflation easing slightly. We are closing it with Brent at $118, the UAE leaving OPEC, the IMF withholding its tranche, nine NBFIs in liquidation, and Trump telling the world he will blockade Iran until they surrender their nuclear programme. The Saudi cargo that is supposed to arrive in Chattogram in three days — the one that is supposed to keep our generators and vehicles running — is being routed through the Red Sea on higher-cost logistics because the normal passage does not exist anymore. I keep thinking about the gap between the economic decisions made in Washington and Geneva, and the practical consequences in Dhaka. Jerome Powell stepped down yesterday as Fed Chair. The IMF publishes its World Economic Outlook today. Nobody in those institutions is thinking primarily about a country where diesel is running out in ten days. We are.
— Founder · Thursday morning · Dhaka · End of April 2026