ORAWEK Digest - Daily Brief
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ — The Morning Brief ON - Business . Economy . AI
📌 Reading today against yesterday — Wednesday's edition led on inflation easing and a banking-sector cleanup; Thursday's leads with the reminder that macro relief doesn't reach the factory floor on its own. The same week Dhaka cheers an 8-month-low inflation print, a lathe-shop owner in Pabna is paying wages from savings because the grid can't keep his machines running. Energy security, not headline inflation, may be the more binding constraint on small-business output right now — worth watching whether the government's "strategy from this evening" (per the state minister for power) actually holds through the week.
📌 A note on today's figures — USD/BDT and Yuan/BDT below are Bangladesh Bank's 12 August readings, the latest available as of this morning. DSEX for 12 August is taken from BSS's confirmed close (5,897, down 6.3 points from 5,903.53) rather than a conflicting internal figure that didn't reconcile against the prior day's close — flagging this so the correction is visible. Forex reserves have been updated to Bangladesh Bank's 12 August print, released after last night's edition closed. Oil is live-checked against oilprice.com as of 8 AM Dhaka time.
| Hormuz Traffic Sinks to Weekly Low as Trump Claims "Total Control," Iran Holds Firm — Brent Near $88.50 OilPrice.com · 13 Aug 2026 | Brent ~$88.47 (-0.49%) · WTI ~$82.89 (-0.37%) — President Trump said the US has "total control over the Strait of Hormuz" even as negotiations over the waterway remain deadlocked; ship traffic through Hormuz fell to a weekly low, and tanker-tracking data reportedly contradicts US claims that Middle East oil flows have normalised. Pakistan's defence minister maintains the US and Iran are "close to some sort of arrangement," while separate reports say Iran-Oman talks have advanced further. EIA data showed US crude inventories rose 17.4 million barrels last week, the biggest weekly build since early 2023. BD implication: Brent has held a roughly $87-90 range through the week despite conflicting signals — a persistent, unresolved input into BPC's fuel-import costs just as the domestic gas shortage compounds the pressure. |
| US Inflation Eases to 3.4%, Wall Street Edges Toward Record Highs CNBC / Washington Post · 12 Aug 2026 | July US CPI came in at 3.4% y/y (down from 3.5%), with core CPI at 2.5% y/y, the lowest since February 2026 — squarely matching forecasts. S&P 500 ▲ +0.26% to 7,748.50 · Nasdaq ▲ +0.54% to 26,588.49 · Dow ▼ -0.04% (-21.58) to 53,770.27 — Wednesday's close, the most recent session, with the S&P notching its first gain since Friday's record high as AI-linked stocks (Nebius, CoreWeave, SMCI) led. Money markets now price under a 50% chance of a September Fed hike. BD implication: a softer US inflation print eases some pressure on the dollar, a modest positive for remittance-driven forex flows even as oil-driven imported inflation risk persists. |
| Lebanon-Israel Talks Stall in Rome; LAF Says Israeli Strikes Undermining Disarmament Process L'Orient Today / Al Jazeera · 12 Aug 2026 | The seventh round of US-mediated Israel-Lebanon talks in Rome ended with few resolutions; the eighth round is set for early September, also in Rome, with the US saying it "feels good about the trajectory." The Lebanese Armed Forces complained Israeli strikes and demolitions in south Lebanon — including of a municipality building, school and dispensary — are compromising its ability to implement disarmament in agreed "pilot zones." Separately, Israeli PM Netanyahu continues to reject a US-backed Gaza disarmament roadmap, saying there will be no withdrawal until Hamas disarms. BD implication: a second regional flashpoint staying unresolved alongside Hormuz, keeping the broader risk premium on Gulf-linked shipping and energy costs elevated into Q4. |
| Russia-Ukraine — Ukraine Strikes Black Sea Fleet Base at Novorossiysk, Damaging Four Warships Kyiv Independent / Ukrinform · 12-13 Aug 2026 | Ukraine's military said it carried out a "unique operation" using jet drones, Neptune missiles and unmanned surface vehicles against Russia's Black Sea Fleet base at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships; explosions were also reported near Sevastopol and the Crimean Bridge overnight. Russia struck Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv region, Odesa and other areas with an Iskander-M missile, cruise missiles and 138 strike drones, of which Ukraine says it downed 112. Russian military losses reached 42,860 in July, Kyiv says — the highest monthly figure since January 2025. BD implication: a second live front keeping global energy-infrastructure risk elevated in parallel with the Hormuz standoff, reinforcing the same fuel-price pressure reaching Dhaka. |
| US Fed Holds Rate at 3.50%-3.75%; Markets Price Under 50% Chance of September Move Federal Reserve · 29 Jul 2026, latest available | The FOMC's 9-3 hold from 29 July remains the latest decision. Wednesday's tame CPI print reduced pressure on the Fed to hike, with money markets now pricing less than a 50% probability of a September increase — down from earlier in the week. BD implication: a Fed leaning toward staying on hold is a modest positive for emerging-market currencies including the taka, though the effect is likely to be gradual rather than immediate. |
| Bitcoin — Latest Market data · 13 Aug 2026 | Trading around $63,300-$64,200, up modestly after the softer-than-fear CPI print reduced near-term rate-hike anxiety, though price remains roughly 49% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080. US spot Bitcoin ETFs returned to modest net inflows this week after a stretch of outflows. |
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| Brent Crude | $112–115 ▲ +55% Mar |
| WTI Crude | ~$103 ▲ +53% Mar |
| USD / BDT | 122.70 ▲ Taka weak |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% — held |
| BD Jet Fuel | Tk 202/L ▲ +80% Mar |
| US–China Tariff | 33.9% ETR ▲ probe on BD |
| RMG Export YTD | $10.69B ▲ Jan '26 |
Morning Brief March 31, 2026
TOP STORY
Bangladesh Business & Economy
US Trade Deal at Legal Risk — One Year After “Liberation Day” Tariffs
- Today marks one year since Trump’s April 2, 2025 “Liberation Day” tariffs hit Bangladesh at a punishing 37% — since negotiated down to 19%, with garments using US cotton eligible for zero duty under the February 2026 bilateral deal.
Banking Sector NPLs Remain the Economy’s Biggest Internal Threat
- Non-performing loans stood at a staggering 35.73% of all disbursed loans as of September 2025 — far above South Asia’s 7.9% average — strangling credit access for businesses and suppressing private investment to a 5-year low of 22.48% of GDP.
Remittances Surging — The Economy’s Strongest Lifeline Right Now
- Remittances jumped from $21 billion in 2023 to $30 billion in 2025
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
- Key numbers- USD/BDT at 123.00, DSEX closed at ~5,231 (prev. close, 31 mar), inflation at 9.13% (10-month high), policy rate held at 10%.
- Gross Forex Reserves $34.2B IMF BPM6: $29.5B · 16 Mar), Gold (22-carat/bhori)- ৳2,44,711 (+৳3,266 · BAJUS 31 Mar).
Global Signal
What Happened Overnight That Affects Bangladesh
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
Anthropic accidentally leaked details of a new AI model that poses unprecedented cybersecurity risks. (Fortune)
ORAWKE Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
Inflation rate is at an all-time high, AI is at it’s pick performance, ready to take over jobs, and also trying to lead humans. What kind of decision do you make for your future?
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