ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
SUNDAY, 10 MAY 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Free forever
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
Bangladesh is in an "energy trap" — $12 billion in fuel imports annually, and the renewable transition is stalled
Business leaders and energy experts delivered a blunt diagnosis this week: Bangladesh has moved past a crisis into a structural "energy trap." The country spends ~$12 billion annually on fuel imports — and with global prices elevated by the Hormuz disruption, that bill is projected to rise by a further $4.8 billion, equivalent to 1.1% of GDP. The Bangladesh Chamber of Industries warned of a daily electricity shortfall of 1,500–2,000 MW, with 71 of 143 power plants either idle or underperforming. The structural failure is a decade of delay on renewables: Bangladesh needs 760 MW of new renewable capacity annually to hit its 2030 targets, but only 358 MW was in the pipeline as of February. Renewables account for just 2.3% of power generation against a global average of 33.8%. IEEFA has warned that additional LNG subsidies for April–June could exceed $1.07 billion — at a time when the IMF is pressing Dhaka to cut subsidies, not expand them.
US trade envoy visits Dhaka — ART implementation talks, BD garment sector seeks tariff clarity
A US Trade Representative delegation led by Assistant USTR Brendan Lynch visited Dhaka on May 5–7 — the first US trade envoy visit since the BNP government took office in February. Talks focused on implementing the US–Bangladesh Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART). Under the deal, Bangladesh has committed to import significant US agricultural volumes including 700,000 tonnes of wheat annually for five years, plus soybeans and cotton. Bangladesh's garment exporters used the visit to press for clarity on how the promised near-zero reciprocal tariff will apply to apparel made with American cotton inputs. The current BD–US tariff stands at 19%, down from the threatened 37%, but terms remain contested. Commerce Minister Muktadir said the agreement must generate "win-win" outcomes; a legal challenge to the deal's constitutional validity is simultaneously before the High Court.
IMF blocks Bangladesh's $1.3 billion tranche — reform failures cited, new programme proposed
The IMF declined to disburse the next $1.3 billion tranche of Bangladesh's $5.5 billion loan programme at the April IMF–World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, citing four failures: weak revenue collection, poor banking sector discipline, slow subsidy reduction, and no market-based exchange rate. The IMF's Asia-Pacific Director Krishna Srinivasan said publicly: "With a new government holding a significant majority, this is the right time to undertake ambitious reforms — we will wait to see how they respond." Bangladesh still has $1.86 billion uncollected before the programme expires in January 2027. The IMF has proposed negotiating a new programme with stricter conditions. The government rejected media reports of a "suspension," calling them "completely false" — but acknowledged key issues remain unresolved, with further talks planned within 15–20 days of the Spring Meetings.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.70 ৳
BB interbank close · Fri 8 May · Market closed Sun
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~18.06 ৳
Xe mid-market · 10 May 8 AM
DSEX (last close, 7 May)
5,234.10 pts
▼ −14.27 pts · −0.27% · Last update 7 May, 2:30 PM
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪৪,৭১১ ৳
▲ +Tk 2,216 · Effective 7 May 2026
Inflation Rate (Feb '26, BBS)
9.13%
▲ 10-month high · IMF FY26 est: 8.9%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
~36%
▲ ~25-year high of total credit
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (8 May) | ~$101/bbl ▲ Down ~7% on week as Trump confirmed ceasefire held despite US–Iran clashes; floor above $100 holds |
| WTI Crude (8 May) | ~$94.7/bbl ▲ US gasoline stocks down 12 consecutive weeks; distillate fuel stocks down 9 weeks |
| Strait of Hormuz | Effectively closed · ~10th week · ~14M bpd disrupted · ~20,000 seafarers stranded on ~2,000 vessels — IMO calls it unprecedented |
| Iran War / Ceasefire | Ceasefire technically in place; US struck Iranian military targets after Hormuz attacks. Iran sent updated peace proposal via Pakistan. Trump: "not satisfied." Awaiting counter-response this week |
| IEA Warning | War disrupting ~14M bpd · Post-conflict recovery will be slow: infrastructure damage, insurer reluctance, mine-clearing required |
| Goldman Sachs | Global oil stocks ~101 days of demand; could fall to 98 days by end-May · Sharpest product shortage risks: South Asia, India, Thailand, Taiwan |
| Wall St (8 May close) | S&P 500 +0.84% → 7,398 (record) · Dow +0.02% → 49,609 · Nasdaq +1.71% → 26,247 · AI infrastructure stocks led all week |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% · Held Apr 29 (3rd consecutive hold, 4 dissents — first since 1992) · New Chair Kevin Warsh takes over May 15 |
| Bitcoin (8 May) | ~$80,350 Dipped below $80K briefly on US–Iran strikes; recovered to close above |
| US CPI & Jobs | April payrolls +115K (vs ~60K expected) · Unemployment 4.3% · Markets pricing zero Fed changes rest of 2026 · Rate hike risk persists if energy inflation stays elevated |
| US–China Trade | US tariffs on China ~45%; BD RMG exporters watching for order diversion · Garment investment into BD tracking higher this quarter |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% base rate held · ART implementation talks completed May 5–7 in Dhaka · Legal challenge to ART before High Court |
| India–BD Relation | India supplying diesel via pipeline · BD seeking $3B additional ADB support for energy cost overruns · West Bengal state elections closely watched in Dhaka |
| Asian Markets (9 May) | Japan Nikkei at new records for the week (+~5.7%) on AI earnings and ceasefire optimism · Monday open expected to track Wall St record close |
| Israel–Lebanon | Israel agreed to negotiate with Lebanon · Fragile parallel front to Iran ceasefire — no deal yet |
| Saudi Arabia / RMG | Iraq offering Hormuz-transit buyers steep crude discounts · BD garment exports tracking strong YTD growth on China tariff diversion |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
OpenAI's ChatGPT for Excel and Google Sheets became generally available on May 5 for all plan levels including free. You type plain-language instructions in a sidebar inside your spreadsheet — "build a 3-year cash flow model," "find the error in this VLOOKUP," "summarise this 40-tab sales file" — and the AI edits your cells directly, without copy-pasting. It runs on GPT-5.5 and is available globally. For Dhaka professionals who work in finance, operations, and consulting and spend hours in spreadsheets, this is the most immediately practical AI release of 2026. The gap between people who use this fluently and those who do not will be visible to managers within weeks. Install it from the Excel ribbon under Add-ins → search "ChatGPT."
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Sunday morning in Dhaka, and the week opens with three things that don't fit together neatly. The remittance numbers are extraordinary — $30 billion in ten months. The energy numbers are alarming — $12 billion going out annually on fuel, and barely 2% of power coming from renewables. And now the IMF has walked away from the table, telling a brand-new government with a large majority: the time for reform is now. These three things are connected. The dollars coming in from workers abroad are financing an energy system that is structurally fragile. If oil stays above $100 for another year, those inflows will not be enough. What happens in the next two months — the FY27 budget, the IMF negotiations, the energy commission's report — will define more of Bangladesh's economic trajectory than anything in the past five years.
— Founder · Sunday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
SATURDAY, 9 MAY 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Free forever
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
Remittances cross $30 billion in under 11 months — FY26 may set an all-time record
Bangladesh has already received $30.08 billion in remittances in just the first ten months and six days of FY2025–26 — nearly matching the entire $30.33 billion received in all of last fiscal year. The first six days of May alone brought in $752 million, up over 20% year-on-year. April added $3.13 billion, the fifth consecutive month above the $3 billion mark. If the current pace holds for the remaining 55 days, total inflows could reach $35 billion by June 30 — a new record for Bangladesh by a wide margin. The previous monthly record, set in March, was $3.75 billion. The practical read: Bangladesh Bank is absorbing excess dollars to keep the taka from appreciating too sharply, protecting export competitiveness. Foreign reserves are rebuilding fast. The vulnerability has shifted — it is no longer the balance of payments. It is energy costs and stubborn inflation.
FY27 budget signals: NBR eyes wealth tax, inheritance tax, and 20% higher revenue target
With the FY27 budget expected in June, the National Board of Revenue is floating its most ambitious reform signals in years. NBR Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan has indicated the government is considering reintroducing a wealth tax (abolished in 1999), introducing a new inheritance tax, and raising income tax rates for those earning over Tk 1 crore annually. The revenue target for FY27 is being set at Tk 6.04 lakh crore — a 20% jump from the current year's revised target. The tax-to-GDP ratio target is 9.2% for FY27, up from last year's 6.8%. Economists are sceptical: NBR sets ambitious targets every year without structural reform to back them. This FY27 budget is the first of the new BNP-led government and is expected to signal its economic philosophy.
NBFI depositors demand Bangladesh Bank action on frozen funds
An alliance representing over 12,000 depositors of six distressed non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) has formally urged Bangladesh Bank to take immediate steps to return their long-frozen funds. The issue adds to the growing pressure on the financial sector — Bangladesh's NPL ratio remains near a 25-year high of around 36% of total credit. Bangladesh Bank has not announced a formal mechanism yet.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.25 ৳
DBBL ready buying · May 7
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~17.96 ৳
▲ Mid-market · May 7
DSEX (last close, 7 May)
5,234 pts
▼ −14.27 pts · −0.27% · 2nd session decline
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪৪,৭১১ ৳
▲ +Tk 2,216 · Updated 7 May
Inflation Rate (Feb '26, BBS)
9.13%
▲ 10-month high · IMF FY26 est: 8.9%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
~36%
▲ ~25-year high of total credit
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: ↓ revised · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (8 May) | ~$101/bbl ▲ Fell ~7% on week as Iran ceasefire held; fresh clashes keep floor above $100 |
| WTI Crude (8 May) | ~$94.7/bbl ▲ Yahoo Finance close · Conflict premium intact |
| Strait of Hormuz | Effectively closed · ~10th week · Iran controlling passage; 14 million bpd disrupted — IEA |
| Iran War / Ceasefire | Ceasefire technically in force; US struck Iranian military targets after Iranian fire on destroyers. Iran sent updated peace proposal via Pakistan mediators. Trump: "not satisfied with the offer" · No full deal yet |
| IEA Warning | War removing ~14 million bpd from global supply · Post-conflict production recovery expected to be slow due to infrastructure damage and insurer reluctance |
| Goldman Sachs | Global oil stocks ~101 days of demand; could fall to 98 days by end-May · Refined product shortages sharpest in South Asia, India, Thailand, Taiwan |
| Wall St (8 May close) | S&P 500 +0.84% → 7,398 (record) · Dow +0.02% → 49,609 · Nasdaq +1.71% → 26,247 · AI infrastructure stocks led gains |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% Held (Apr 29 decision) · 3rd consecutive hold · 4 dissents — most since 1992. New Chair Kevin Warsh set for May 15 |
| Bitcoin (8 May close) | ~$80,350 ▲ Off recent highs; US strikes on Iran pushed it below $80K briefly |
| US–China Trade | US tariffs on China ~45%; BD manufacturers watching for order diversion opportunities |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% BD exporters met US trade officials in Dhaka this week to clarify zero-tariff terms on US-cotton apparel |
| India–BD Relation | India supplying diesel via pipeline; BD sought $3B additional ADB support for energy cost overruns from Hormuz disruption |
| Asian Markets (8 May) | Tracking Wall St recovery; Japan Nikkei rose ~5.7% in the week to new records amid AI earnings and Iran ceasefire extension hopes |
| Israel–Lebanon | Israel agreed to negotiate with Lebanon; parallel front to Iran ceasefire — outcome still uncertain |
| US CPI & Jobs | April payrolls +115K (nearly 2x expectations) · Unemployment 4.3% · Markets pricing no Fed change rest of 2026 · Rate hike risk if oil-driven inflation persists |
| RMG Export YTD | Strong growth tracking; garment investments rising with US tariff diversion opportunity from China |
| Saudi Arabia | Iraq offering steep discounts to term buyers willing to transit Hormuz; Saudi supply constrained by war-era rerouting |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
OpenAI's ChatGPT for Excel and Google Sheets became generally available to all users on May 5 — including the free tier. You can now type plain-language instructions directly inside a spreadsheet sidebar: "build me a 3-year cash flow model," "find the error in this VLOOKUP," "summarise this 40-tab sales report." The tool is powered by GPT-5.5 and edits cells directly rather than requiring copy-paste. For Dhaka's finance, operations, and consulting professionals who live in spreadsheets, this is the most practically useful AI release of the year. The practical signal: if you report to someone who uses Excel, start practising with this today. The people who figure it out first will look dramatically faster than those who don't — and the gap will be visible within months.
OpenAI · May 5, 2026 · chatgpt.com/apps/spreadsheets
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Bangladesh has sent home $30 billion in remittances in under eleven months. That is not a statistic — that is a quiet structural shift. The people leaving Dhaka for Riyadh, Dubai, and Kuala Lumpur are now the country's most reliable economic engine. Meanwhile, 12,000 depositors of distressed NBFIs cannot access their own savings. Both of these things are true at the same time. A record dollar inflow and a frozen financial system. The war in the Gulf is still not resolved — oil above $100, the Hormuz still controlled by Iran, and the Fed chair changing on May 15 for the first time in years. This Saturday morning has more moving parts than most weeks. Pay attention to the FY27 budget signals — the wealth tax and inheritance tax proposals are the first serious redistribution conversation Bangladesh has had in a generation.
— Founder · Saturday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
FRIDAY, 8 MAY 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM
Weekend edition
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
New Deposit Protection Act: Tk 200,000 guarantee — but 12,000 frozen depositors are still waiting in the street
Bangladesh's new Deposit Protection Act, 2026 (Act No. 75 of 2026) was gazetted on May 6, replacing the 2000 law. It doubles the insurance ceiling from Tk 100,000 to Tk 200,000 per depositor, brings payout time down from 180 to 17 working days, and — for the first time — formally brings NBFIs into the protection framework (by July 2028). The law covers approximately 93% of all depositors nationally. On the same day it was gazetted, more than a hundred depositors of six distressed NBFIs — FAS Finance, Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance, Aviva Finance, People's Leasing, and International Leasing — gathered in silent protest in front of Bangladesh Bank wearing black cloth over their faces. Their funds have been frozen for nearly seven years. A total of Tk 15,370 crore remains locked in nine troubled NBFIs: Tk 3,525 crore from individuals, Tk 11,845 crore from banks and corporates. At least 35 depositors have reportedly died waiting for their money. A Tk 5,600 crore funding gap is stalling the liquidation process. The government has a July 2026 deadline on paper; it has no funded plan to meet it.
Financial account surplus hits $3.81B in Jul–Mar — a structural improvement in Bangladesh's external position
Bangladesh's financial account posted a surplus of $3.81 billion in the first nine months of FY26 (July–March), according to Bangladesh Bank data. This reflects a significant improvement in portfolio and FDI-linked inflows, driven partly by remittance-backed liquidity and multilateral loan disbursements. The current account has also returned to a modest surplus. Together, these two shifts represent the clearest structural improvement in Bangladesh's balance of payments since FY21. The risk: the ACU payment of $1.51 billion this week and higher energy import costs going forward will test whether the surplus holds into Q4.
US trade court strikes down Trump's 10% global tariff — Bangladesh's 19% deal now has a legal question mark
A US Trade Court ruled on May 7 that President Trump's broad 10% global tariff — the IEEPA authority underpinning it — violated federal law. The ruling creates a legal question over all tariff-related agreements signed under that executive order, including the Bangladesh ART deal of February 9. Malaysia had already declared its equivalent deal void. Bangladesh has not moved, and the government insists the 19% rate remains operative. But if the ruling is upheld on appeal, the foundation of Bangladesh's most important bilateral trade agreement is in legal jeopardy. Dhaka's commerce lawyers are watching the US appeals process very closely.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.82 ৳
Xe mid-market · May 8, 8 AM (09:03 UTC May 7)
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~18.06 ৳
▲ Xe mid-market · May 8, 8 AM (09:34 UTC May 7)
DSEX (Last Close, 7 May)
5,234.10 pts
▼ −14.27 pts · −0.27% · 5th consecutive loss
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪৪,৭১১ ৳
▲ +Tk 2,216 · Updated May 7 (effective May 7, 2026)
Inflation Rate (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Eased from 9.13% · Food: 8.24%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Gross Forex (May 6, BB)
~$33.8B
▼ Post-ACU est. · $35.33B pre-payment · BPM6 ~$29.2B est.
Financial Account Surplus
$3.81B
▲ Jul–Mar FY26 · BB data
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Iran–US Hormuz Clash (May 7 night) | US Central Command says it "intercepted unprovoked Iranian attacks and responded with self-defense strikes" as three US Navy destroyers transited Hormuz · Iran claims US struck Qeshm Port and civilian areas · Both sides dispute who fired first · Peace deal talks now collapsed · NFP jobs report due 8:30 AM ET — market opens into live war escalation |
| Brent Crude (After-hours) | ~$104–106/bbl ▲ +2–4% in overnight futures after Hormuz clash — had been near $100 on peace hopes · Goldman: $140–150 scenario back on table if escalation continues |
| Brent / WTI (May 7 close) | Brent $100.06 (−1.19%) · WTI $94.81 (−0.28%) · Had fallen to ~$96–97 intraday on Iran peace deal optimism before partial recovery on Iranian official's hard line |
| Wall St (May 7 close) | S&P 500 −0.38% → 7,337.11 · Nasdaq −0.13% → 25,806.20 · Dow −313 pts → 49,596.97 · Pullback from records after Iranian official said Iran "will not let US leave without paying reparations" · Futures slipping overnight |
| April NFP (Today, 8:30 AM ET) | Forecast: +55,000 jobs (very weak) · ADP April: +109,000 · Jobless claims last week: 200,000 (better than expected) · Any miss will compound the already-volatile overnight session |
| US Fed (Confirmed) | Held at 3.50–3.75% · 8–4 split vote — first 4-way dissent since 1992 · Powell confirmed staying on Board as Governor after May 15 term end · Kevin Warsh Senate committee advanced; full vote pending |
| US Trade Court Ruling | US Trade Court struck down Trump's 10% global tariff (IEEPA authority unconstitutional) · Ruling covers the same executive order framework underpinning Bangladesh's ART deal · BD government has not commented yet · Malaysia declared its deal void months ago |
| Gold (International) | Gold +2%+ on May 6 amid Iran deal optimism · Brent-WTI spread near $12/bbl · Gold futures near $4,725/oz on May 6 · BAJUS raised BD gold 22k to ৳2,44,711/bhori (+Tk 2,216) effective May 7 |
| Bitcoin | ~$80,200+ · Higher amid risk-on from peace hopes earlier this week; overnight session now reversed |
| Goldman Sachs | Brent could fall to $75–80 if Hormuz reopens · BUT: $140–150 scenario fully revived if overnight Hormuz clash escalates into resumed hostilities |
| Asian Markets (May 8 open) | Opening cautiously lower; energy stocks recovering; markets tracking overnight Hormuz clash and pre-NFP uncertainty |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% rate · US Trade Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs creates new legal risk for ART deal · USTR delegation left Dhaka without activating zero-tariff clause · BD government watching US appeals process |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
Weekend Read
Datadog — a software company most Bangladeshi professionals have never heard of — beat Q1 earnings by 18% and surged 28% this week because its AI-powered monitoring and observability tools are being embedded into every major cloud infrastructure buildout. What Datadog does is watch AI systems in real time and flag when they break. The practical implication: AI systems need AI managers. As your firm adopts AI tools — whether Microsoft Copilot, ChatGPT, or any workflow automation — the hidden cost is monitoring whether the AI is actually working correctly, consistently, and securely. In Bangladesh, this is still an unseen risk. Most teams deploying AI assistants have no process for checking whether the output has degraded, drifted, or started hallucinating over time. A simple rule for the weekend: if your team uses an AI tool for regular work, assign one person to audit a random sample of outputs monthly. You do not need Datadog to do that. You need a habit.
CNBC · Datadog Q1 2026 Earnings · TheStreet · May 7, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
On Wednesday, Brent fell 8% on a peace deal. On Thursday night, US and Iranian ships fired at each other in the Strait of Hormuz. The peace deal that oil traders were pricing in lasted about 36 hours. That is the tempo of this conflict. Meanwhile, 12,000 Bangladeshi depositors stood in front of Bangladesh Bank in black cloth, their faces covered, their savings frozen for seven years. A new law was gazetted on the same day. The law protects Tk 200,000 per depositor. The frozen amount per depositor, in many cases, is Tk 20 to 80 lakh. The law protects 93% of depositors nationally. These particular 12,000 are in the other 7%. The weekend arrives with the Strait unresolved, the IMF tranche still pending, and a US trade court having just struck down the legal basis of Bangladesh's most important tariff deal. Every number that matters is still in motion.
— Founder · Friday morning, weekend edition · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
THURSDAY, 7 MAY 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Last issue before weekend
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
This week in Bangladesh economy — May 4–7
Mon: ERL crude ship arrived · GDP slowed to 3.03% in Q2 ·
Tue: IMF blocks $1.3B tranche · PM named TIME 100 ·
Wed: USTR in Dhaka — zero tariff still unactivated · ADB commits $1.4B ·
Thu: ACU payment $1.51B — reserves to dip · DSEX 4-day losing streak · Iran deal hopes shift everything globally
Bangladesh pays $1.51B ACU import bill — reserves to dip below $35B today
Bangladesh Bank on May 6 confirmed the country has settled $1.51 billion in import bills under the Asian Clearing Union (ACU) — the bimonthly payment mechanism that clears regional trade dues with India, Iran, Sri Lanka and six other member states. Gross reserves stood at $35.33 billion at close of May 6; under the IMF BPM6 standard, they were at $30.67 billion. The ACU payment will cause both numbers to fall in the coming days, as settlement lag typically takes 2–3 business days to reflect. The previous ACU bill (Jan–Feb) was $1.36 billion, so this cycle's payment is higher — consistent with the higher crude import costs from the Hormuz crisis and alternative-route freight premiums. The timing is notable: Bangladesh is simultaneously receiving $1 billion in ADB budget support and awaiting the release of the delayed IMF tranche. Reserves are holding, but the margin is being tested from both sides at once.
DSEX loses Tk 6,300 crore in market cap over three days — four-session losing streak
The Dhaka Stock Exchange closed Wednesday at 5,248 points, extending its losing streak to a fourth consecutive session. Market capitalisation fell by approximately Tk 6,300 crore over three trading sessions. The DS30 blue-chip index dropped 8 points to 2,009. The NBFI (non-bank financial institution) sector was hit hardest — Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance and International Leasing all fell 8.69%. The CSE saw a 37% jump in turnover even as prices declined. EBL Securities noted broad-based selling pressure, absence of fresh catalysts, and investor caution over the IMF tranche delay, fuel crisis uncertainty and austerity measure fears. The DSEX has now fallen ~90 points in a week from its recent high of ~5,337.
Bangladesh seeks crude refining deal with India — Hormuz crisis forcing energy diplomacy
With Eastern Refinery running on alternative-route crude and Fujairah now a war-zone port, Bangladesh is in active talks with India to explore a crude refining arrangement — sending raw crude to Indian refineries and receiving refined products in return. This is a significant structural shift: Bangladesh has historically imported finished petroleum, not crude for domestic refining. The talks reflect the depth of the Hormuz supply shock and the government's acknowledgment that a single refinery and a single alt-route is not a durable solution for a country that imports 95% of its fuel.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.59 ৳
Xe mid-market · May 7, 8 AM (03:33 UTC)
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~17.96 ৳
Live · May 7, 8 AM (01:00 UTC)
DSEX (Last Close, 6 May)
5,248.37 pts
▼ −18.86 pts · −0.36% · 4th consecutive loss
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪২,৪৯৫ ৳
Last updated Apr 30 · BAJUS
Inflation Rate (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Eased from 9.13% · Food: 8.24%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Gross Forex (May 6, BB)
$35.33B
▼ ACU $1.51B payment — reserves to dip
IMF BPM6 (May 6)
$30.67B
▼ Pre-ACU adjustment · Will fall in 2–3 days
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Iran–US Deal (BREAKING) | Axios: US and Iran near preliminary agreement — framework for nuclear talks · Iranian FM: Tehran "evaluating" US 14-point proposal · Trump: deal "not certain" but "great progress" · Wall St surged; Brent crashed 8%+ on peace hopes |
| Brent Crude (May 6 close) | ~$101/bbl ▼ −8.1% on day — biggest single-day drop since March · Trading range May 6: $96.77–$110.84 · Down from $114.44 peak on May 4 · Early May 7: ~$100 |
| WTI Crude (May 6 close) | ~$93/bbl ▼ −9%+ · Trump paused "Project Freedom" citing deal progress · US emptying strategic reserves to cap prices |
| Strait of Hormuz | 23,000 seafarers still stranded · Two US-escorted ships successfully transited · If deal signed, Hormuz reopening expected in weeks, not days · Goldman: full shipping normalisation takes weeks |
| Wall St (May 6 close — RECORDS) | S&P 500 +1.46% → 7,365 (record) · Nasdaq +2.02% → 25,839 (record) · Dow +612 pts → 49,911 · AMD +18% · Disney +6.6% on Q2 beat · Micron +11% · Corning +17% (Nvidia optical deal) · Russell 2000 +1.75% · Best day since Feb |
| AMD · Disney · Corning | AMD Q1: Revenue $10.3B (+38%) · Disney Q2: EPS $1.57 beat; revenue $25.17B · Corning +17%: Nvidia partnership for AI optical fibre · Micron surpassed $700B market cap · Arm +8% after-hours on beat |
| US FOMC Result (May 7) | Decision today — market pricing 100% hold at 3.50–3.75% · Likely Powell's final FOMC as chair · New chair Kevin Warsh favours lower rates over time · No cut expected in 2026 |
| US CPI / Jobs (Upcoming) | April CPI due May 12 · NFP (non-farm payrolls) due May 8 · ADP April jobs: +109,000 — below expectations; labour market softening |
| Bitcoin (May 6) | ~$79,500 · Tracking equity recovery · Gold futures $4,530/oz (−1.1% on Iran deal hopes) |
| Asian Markets (May 7 open) | Opening sharply higher · Kospi +6.45% yesterday → 7,385 (record); Samsung +14%, crossed $1T market cap · Asia tracking Wall St records + oil price crash + Iran deal optimism |
| Spirit Airlines | In bankruptcy liquidation — forced to shut down by Iran-war jet fuel spike · Last flights Friday · 8,000 jobs lost · US aviation absorbing another low-cost collapse |
| BD–US Tariff | USTR delegation final day in Dhaka (May 5–7) · Zero tariff for US-cotton RMG still unactivated · Commerce Minister meeting today · NFP and ADB reports next week |
| Goldman Sachs | Iran deal: Brent could fall to $75–80 if Hormuz reopens and inventories rebuild · Downside scenario: demand destruction already in pipeline; correction likely regardless of war outcome |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
Week's Signal
This week confirmed something important about AI's direction. Nvidia partnered with Corning to build dedicated optical-fibre AI infrastructure in the US. AMD reported 38% revenue growth driven entirely by AI data centre chips. Disney's new CEO used AI to cut content costs and streaming improved margins by 50% YoY. The common thread: AI is now a manufacturing and infrastructure story, not just software. For Dhaka's professionals, the practical translation is this — every company in your supply chain that supplies to the US, Europe or East Asia is now building AI into procurement, design, or quality control. Bangladesh's RMG sector will face buyers in 2027 who expect AI-assisted compliance documentation, factory sustainability reporting, and production forecasting as table stakes — not innovations. The time to start is not when buyers ask. It's now, when starting costs you nothing but time.
CNBC · TheStreet · AMD / Disney / Corning Q2 Reports · May 5–6, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
The week started with a ship arriving with crude. It ends with a potential peace deal that could make that ship's alt-route unnecessary. Brent fell 8% in a day on a rumour. The stock market hit a record. Oil analysts who spent last Tuesday warning of $140 crude are now modelling $75. The thing about energy crises is that they can end faster than they begin — one agreement, one paragraph, one Axios story. But the structural damage stays: Bangladesh borrowed over $1.13 billion in redirected development funds to cover energy costs. The ACU bill just came in at $1.51 billion. We are paying for the crisis even as the crisis potentially ends. Friday before the weekend. Next week, April CPI arrives May 12. The IMF question does not go away. The USTR left Dhaka without activating the zero tariff. The numbers that matter are still outstanding.
— Founder · Thursday morning · Last issue this week · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
WEDNESDAY, 6 MAY 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Free forever
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
BGMEA asks visiting USTR delegation: where is our zero tariff? — the garment sector's real test begins now
A three-member delegation from the US Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), led by Assistant USTR Brendan Lynch, arrived in Dhaka on May 5 for a two-day visit. The Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) had one central demand at Tuesday's meeting: clarify and activate the zero reciprocal tariff on apparel made with US-sourced cotton — promised in the February 9 Agreement on Reciprocal Trade but not yet operational. BGMEA President Mahmud Hasan Khan was direct: "We will raise this issue with the USTR high-ups." At stake: Bangladesh exports $9.5 billion to the US annually, with garments accounting for 86%. The US trade deficit with Bangladesh reached $7.1 billion in 2025. The zero-tariff mechanism is the RMG sector's biggest prize from the deal — but the volume will be linked to how much US cotton Bangladesh actually imports. The USTR delegation will also meet Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir today for broader talks on labour rights, intellectual property and the two ongoing USTR investigations covering Bangladesh. The deal's credibility is being tested this week in the very meetings that were supposed to be a formality.
ADB commits $1 billion in budget support — Bangladesh's pivot away from IMF gains momentum
With IMF's $1.3 billion tranche now delayed indefinitely, Bangladesh has secured a separate commitment: the Asian Development Bank will provide $1 billion in budget support for FY26. Finance Minister Amir Khosru confirmed the ADB has committed $1.4 billion total for the fiscal year, with additional counter-cyclical financing available if the Middle East war deepens. Bangladesh made the case at ADB's 59th Annual Meeting in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, arguing that the Iran conflict has raised its energy-related costs by an estimated $3 billion. ADB President Masato Kanda's $50 billion Pan-Asia Power Grid Initiative — launched at the same meeting — puts Bangladesh's India grid interconnection at the centre of a regional energy security frame. The broader picture: Bangladesh is managing a multilateral financing triage, replacing the delayed IMF tranche with ADB support and World Bank emergency redirections.
Dubai airport passenger traffic fell two-thirds in March — the regional ripple for BD workers
Dubai International Airport saw its passenger traffic plunge by two-thirds in March 2026 — the direct consequence of Iran's attacks on UAE facilities. For Bangladesh, this is not an aviation statistic. Over 43% of Bangladeshi remittance workers are in Gulf countries. Dubai is the primary transit and employment hub. A sustained collapse in Gulf aviation and commerce does not stay in the Gulf — it arrives in Mirpur and Sylhet as lower remittance inflows within two to three months. The record April remittance numbers were built before the Fujairah attacks. May's number will be the first real signal.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.73 ৳
Exchange-rates.org · May 6, 8 AM (10:00 UTC May 5)
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~17.97 ৳
Xe · May 6, 8 AM (20:08 UTC May 5)
DSEX (Last Close, 5 May)
5,267.23 pts
▼ −10.58 pts · −0.20% · DSE
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪০,৩৩৭৳
Last updated May 6 · BAJUS
Inflation Rate (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Eased from 9.13% · Food: 8.24%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
~36%
▲ IMF: banking reform unmet
ADB Budget Support FY26
$1.4B
▲ Confirmed · Partial IMF tranche substitute
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (May 5 close) | $109.87/bbl ▼ −4% · US confirmed ceasefire "still holds" despite UAE attacks · Hegseth: Iran's actions fell "below threshold" of restarting major combat · Brent early May 6: ~$112, still elevated |
| WTI Crude (May 5 close) | $102.27/bbl ▼ −4% on ceasefire reassurances · Goldman: product shortages acute in South Africa, India, Thailand, Taiwan |
| Strait of Hormuz | Trump paused "Project Freedom" May 5, citing "progress" in Iran negotiations · Iran insists Hormuz stays shut until US lifts naval blockade on Iranian ports · US sank Iranian vessels Monday; ceasefire technically holds |
| Iran War Status | Ceasefire holds but strained · Two US commercial ships transited Hormuz with military escort · Iran: any further US "interference" is ceasefire violation · Global oil stocks ~101 days of demand; could fall to 98 by end of May — Goldman |
| Wall St (May 5 close) | Dow +0.73% → 49,298 (+356 pts) · S&P 500 +0.55% → 7,240 · Nasdaq +0.90% → 25,293 · Full Monday recovery · AMD +15% after-hours on Q1 beat · Russell 2000 +1.41% · 59.7% of US issues advanced |
| AMD Q1 2026 | Revenue $10.3B (+38% YoY) · EPS $1.37 beat $1.25 estimate · Q2 guidance $11.2B — beats again · Stock +15% after-hours · Data Center now primary revenue driver · Lisa Su: "inferencing and agentic AI driving accelerating demand" |
| US FOMC (May 6–7) | Meeting underway today · Market pricing 100% hold at 3.50–3.75% · Fed likely Powell's final meeting in chair role · No cut expected in 2026; rate hike odds now at 8% |
| US CPI (Mar '26) | 3.3% annual · Core 2.6% · April data due May 12 · Goldman: global demand down 3.6M bpd vs Feb · Oil product shortages building in Asia |
| Bitcoin (May 5) | ~$78,600 · Stable · Tracking equity recovery · Gold futures $4,579/oz |
| BD–US Tariff | USTR delegation in Dhaka May 5–7 · Zero tariff for US-cotton RMG still not activated · Key week for implementation talks · USTR also probing BD on forced labour and industrial overcapacity |
| Asian Markets | Opening higher Wednesday tracking Wall St recovery and oil pullback · Energy stocks mixed as Brent stayed above $110 |
| Dubai / Gulf Impact | Dubai airport −66% passenger traffic in March · Regional Gulf commerce slowing · First real remittance impact on BD expected in May figures |
| Goldman Sachs | Product shortages acute in India, Thailand, Taiwan, South Africa · $140–150 Brent scenario still live if disruptions persist |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
AMD just reported that its Data Center revenue grew 38% in Q1 2026, driven by demand for AI chips from hyperscalers. CEO Lisa Su named "inferencing and agentic AI" as the primary growth drivers. This is the practical signal: agentic AI — AI that takes multi-step actions on your behalf without being prompted at every step — is no longer a research concept. It is now the reason semiconductor companies are beating earnings estimates by double digits. For Dhaka's professionals, the most actionable version of this right now is in Microsoft 365 Copilot Actions (launched May 1), Google Workspace AI Agents, and Anthropic's Claude for computer use — all of which can now automate repetitive multi-step workflows like invoice processing, report compilation, and email triage. If your firm has not yet piloted one agentic workflow, the window before competitors do is measured in months, not years. AMD's numbers confirm the underlying infrastructure buildout is real and accelerating.
CNBC · AMD Q1 2026 Earnings · May 5, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
The BGMEA walked into a meeting with the USTR yesterday and asked one question: why are we not getting what was promised? That is the entire Bangladesh-US trade story in a single room. The deal was announced with fanfare in February. Four months later, the mechanism for zero tariffs on US-cotton garments has not been activated. Our exporters are still paying what they were paying before the deal. Meanwhile, Dubai's airport lost two-thirds of its passengers in March. Nobody announced that here. It just happened. Remittances held in April. We will know what May looks like in a few weeks. A Wednesday morning in Dhaka, and we are watching two numbers very carefully: the date the zero tariff activates, and the date remittance data for May arrives.
— Founder · Wednesday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
TUESDAY, 5 MAY 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Free forever
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
IMF blocks Bangladesh's $1.3B tranche — reform failure on revenue, banking and exchange rate
Bangladesh went to Washington for the IMF–World Bank Spring Meetings expecting to lock in a $1.3 billion combined tranche by June. It came back empty-handed. The IMF told the Finance Ministry delegation directly that the next payout under the existing $5.5 billion programme will not come by June — the country has failed to meet agreed conditions on revenue collection, banking sector reform, withdrawal of electricity and gas subsidies, and a genuinely market-based exchange rate. Bangladesh has received $3.64 billion in five instalments; $1.86 billion remains. The IMF has instead proposed negotiating a new, stricter lending arrangement. Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury said discussions are ongoing and that "we have not yet reached the stage of yes or no." The delegation also held talks with the World Bank about softer alternative financing. The signal from Washington is unmistakable: the BNP government's first major economic credibility test has not gone well, and development partners are watching closely.
ERL crude ship arriving today — Bangladesh's refinery to restart after 22-day shutdown
The vessel 'MT Ninemia', carrying 100,000 tonnes of Murban crude loaded at Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, is expected to arrive at Chattogram outer anchorage today, May 5. The crude will be lightered to Eastern Refinery in Patenga for a restart of both main processing units, shut since April 13. Two more cargoes are lined up for May. The timing is tight: on May 4, Iran attacked UAE's Fujairah oil hub — the same port Bangladesh used as an alternative loading point. The alt-route via the Red Sea that Bangladesh has been using remains viable, but yesterday's escalation adds a new layer of risk to every future cargo.
PM Tarique Rahman named in TIME 100 Most Influential People of 2026
Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman has been named among TIME magazine's 100 Most Influential People of 2026. The recognition comes three months after his BNP-led government was elected in the February 12 general election. Internationally, the listing lends profile to the new government's reform narrative. Domestically, critics note that IMF reform targets remain unmet, banking NPLs are near a 25-year high, and the cost of fuel imports has jumped significantly. Influence is easier to earn than macro credibility.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.72 ৳
Xe mid-market · May 5, 8 AM (12:05 UTC)
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~17.98 ৳
Xe mid-market · May 5, 8 AM (05:03 UTC)
DSEX (Last Close, 4 May)
5,277.81 pts
▲ +12.41 pts · +0.24% · DSE
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪২,৪৯৫ ৳
Last updated Apr 30 · BAJUS
Inflation Rate (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Eased from 9.13% · Food: 8.24%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
~36%
▲ IMF: banking reform conditions unmet
GDP Growth FY26
3.03%
▼ Q2 FY26 (Oct–Dec '25) · BBS provisional
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (May 4 close) | $114.44/bbl ▲ +5.9% — Iran missiles hit UAE's Fujairah oil hub + tanker struck · Intraday high $114+ · 4-year high · Up ~65% since war Feb 28 |
| WTI Crude (May 4 close) | $106.42/bbl ▲ +4.4% · Briefly surged above $107 then pulled back after US denied Iranian claims of striking a US frigate |
| Iran / UAE Escalation | Iran fired 12 ballistic missiles + 3 cruise missiles + 4 drones at UAE on May 4 · Fujairah oil hub hit, fire reported · Tanker struck by drones · UAE air defense intercepted missiles · 3 people injured · Iran fired "warning shots" at US Navy · US denied frigate was struck |
| Strait of Hormuz | Trump launched "Project Freedom" May 4 — US to escort stranded ships through strait · Iran warned any US "interference" violates the ceasefire · Two US-flagged ships transited successfully |
| Wall St (May 4 close) | Dow −1.13% → 48,942 (−557 pts) · S&P 500 −0.41% → 7,201 · Nasdaq −0.19% → 25,068 · Only Energy (+0.95%) and Tech (+0.02%) rose · Materials & Industrials worst hit |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% · Market pricing 100% chance of hold at May 6–7 FOMC meeting · Hawkish dissents last week; rate hike odds at 8% by year-end |
| US CPI (Mar '26) | 3.3% annual · Core 2.6% · Energy +10.9% driving surge · April data due May 12 · Mortgage rates back above 6.5% on Middle East inflation fears |
| Fujairah Impact (BD) | BD's ERL rescue crude was loaded at Fujairah as alt-route port · Yesterday's attack adds risk to future alt-route cargoes · No disruption to MT Ninemia which already departed April 21 |
| Bitcoin (May 4) | ~$78,600 · Slight uptick · Gold futures $4,579/oz (−1.4%) as risk-off rotation was muted |
| Morgan Stanley Warning | Economist: "This is a massive, massive energy crisis. Markets are sleepwalking into recession." — Q1 earnings strong; Q2 will look very different |
| Goldman Sachs | Oil could spike to $140–$150/bbl if disruptions persist; global demand down ~3.6M bpd vs Feb levels; Hormuz exports at 4% of pre-war normal |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% rate intact · Malaysia "null and void" precedent stands · No BD parliament debate yet |
| Asian Markets | Opening lower Tuesday tracking Dow decline and Fujairah attack; energy and material sectors under pressure across Asia |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
On May 4, Palantir Technologies reported record Q1 revenue and profit — and its stock rose while the rest of the market fell. The reason matters for Dhaka's professionals: Palantir builds AI tools specifically for governments and large enterprises managing crises — energy supply chains, military logistics, risk triage. In a world where oil infrastructure is now literally being bombed, AI tools that help organizations model disruption and make decisions under uncertainty are the fastest-growing segment in enterprise software. The practical angle: your firm does not need Palantir-scale tools to benefit from this shift. Scenario-modeling tools, supply chain dashboards, and AI-assisted procurement risk tools are now available as mid-market SaaS. The energy crisis is making the business case for "decision intelligence" software undeniable — and the window to implement before a competitor does is narrowing.
TheStreet · Palantir Q1 2026 Results · May 4, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Yesterday Iran bombed Fujairah. That is the same port Bangladesh loaded its rescue crude from. Our ship had already left — it arrives today. But next month's ship? We do not know yet. The IMF blocked our loan. The government came back from Washington without the $1.3 billion it was expecting. Two things, one morning: the energy supply chain we depend on is being attacked at the port we rerouted to, and the financial lifeline we were counting on has conditions we have not yet met. Bangladesh is holding. But "holding" is not the same as stable. A Tuesday in May, and the margin is thinner than the headlines suggest.
— Founder · Tuesday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
MONDAY, 4 MAY 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Free forever
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
Eastern Refinery's crude rescue ship arrives this week — 75 days without a drop from the Gulf
Bangladesh's only state-owned refinery, Eastern Refinery Limited (ERL), has been shut since April 13 — the longest crude stoppage since the refinery opened. The last shipment arrived February 18. Two originally scheduled cargoes from Saudi Arabia and the UAE were cancelled when the US-Israel war closed the Strait of Hormuz. After 75 days of zero crude imports, the government secured 100,000 tonnes of Murban crude loaded from Fujairah, UAE — bypassing the Persian Gulf entirely via the Red Sea. The vessel 'MT Ninemia' departed Yanbu, Saudi Arabia on April 21 and is expected to anchor at Chattogram outer anchorage on May 5 or 6. Two additional 100,000-tonne cargoes are lined up for later in May. Officials confirm there is no immediate fuel shortage — the government pre-purchased 600,000 tonnes of refined diesel, octane and furnace oil in April at elevated spot prices. The bill for keeping the lights on just got bigger. The ERL's restart, once crude arrives, is the clearest signal yet that Bangladesh is building a workaround to the Hormuz blockade — one cargo at a time.
Bangladesh GDP slows to 3.03% in Q2 FY26 — industrial sector at its weakest in years
New BBS data (released April 6) shows GDP growth slowed to 3.03% in October–December 2025, the second quarter of FY26 — down from 3.53% a year earlier. The industrial sector, which expanded 6.82% in Q1, collapsed to just 1.27% growth in Q2. Services also slowed. Agriculture held up at 3.68%. Q1 was brighter at 4.96%, but the Q2 number raises questions about whether the BNP government's investment story can revive the momentum. Energy disruptions from the Iran war and still-elevated borrowing costs are the structural anchors pulling growth lower.
Visa–Asia Foundation MoU signals push for digital finance inclusion in Bangladesh
Visa has signed a memorandum of understanding with The Asia Foundation to advance digital financial inclusion across Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan. The partnership will focus on economic empowerment and digital innovation. With Bangladesh's mobile financial services (MFS) sector already the most active in the region — bKash processes more transactions daily than most banks — the question is no longer whether digital finance works here. It is who gets left out of it.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.82 ৳
xe.com · May 4, 8 AM
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~17.97 ৳
Mid-market · May 3, 2:30 PM
DSEX (Last Close, 3 May)
5,265.39 pts
▼ −21.48 pts · −0.41% · DSE
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪২,৪৯৫ ৳
Last updated Apr 30 · BAJUS
Inflation Rate (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Eased from 9.13% · Food: 8.24%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
~36%
▲ 25-year high · 5 banks under BB watch
GDP Growth FY26
3.03%
▼ Q2 FY26 (Oct–Dec '25) · BBS provisional
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (May 3) | ~$108/bbl ▼ Eased on Iran peace proposal; weekly close below $110 after wild swings · Up ~60% since war began Feb 28 |
| WTI Crude (May 3) | ~$101/bbl ▼ Iran reviewing US response to 14-point proposal · WTI fell toward $101 on optimism |
| Strait of Hormuz | Effectively closed · OPEC+ agreed symbolic June output increase after UAE exit · Goldman: exports at 4% of pre-war normal |
| Iran War Status | Iran reviewing US response to its 14-point peace proposal · Ceasefire holds but Hormuz remains shut · Trump: naval blockade continues · War Powers 60-day clock — US argues ceasefire "terminated" hostilities |
| Wall St (May 1 close) | S&P 500 +0.29% → 7,230 (record) · Nasdaq +0.89% → 25,114 (record) · Dow −0.31% → 49,499 · Best month for S&P & Nasdaq since 2020 · Apple +3% on earnings beat |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% · Held at Apr 29 FOMC — likely Powell's final meeting · New Fed chair expected mid-May |
| US CPI (Mar '26) | 3.3% annual · Core 2.6% · Energy +10.9% driving headline · April data due May 12 |
| Bitcoin (May 1) | ~$78,178 Steady · ETF outflows last week · Still ~$18K below year-ago |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% · ART deal signed Feb 9 · Parliament review demanded · Malaysia declared equivalent deal null and void · BD has not followed |
| US–China Trade | US tariffs on China ~45% · BD RMG tracking US-China order diversion opportunity |
| Goldman Sachs | Brent avg $83/bbl forecast 2026 · Global oil demand may fall in 2026 for first time since COVID |
| Asian Markets (May 1) | Nikkei 225 +0.38% → 59,513 · Markets open Monday tracking Wall St records & Iran deal cautious optimism |
| BD Crude Shipment | 100,000T Murban crude (MT Ninemia) → due Chattogram May 5–6 via Red Sea alt-route from Yanbu · Two more 100K-tonne cargoes due later in May |
| India–BD | Diesel imports via India pipeline continuing; BD FM in Delhi this week for bilateral talks |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
Anthropic just connected Claude to Blender, Adobe, SketchUp and Splice — creative software used by designers, architects and music producers worldwide. The practical shift: AI is no longer a separate tab you switch to. It is now embedded inside the tools that produce actual deliverables. For Dhaka's creative professionals — agencies, architects, fashion designers, video producers — this matters because it means the bottleneck is no longer "learning AI." It is whether your team's workflow software gets an AI connector before a competitor's does. The broader signal from the week of April 26–May 2: AI tools are becoming AI workers inside existing software. OpenAI repositioned Sora into the GPT ecosystem rather than as a standalone product. Adobe deepened automation across its suite. The shift is from "generate content" to "complete workflows." If your firm is still using AI only as a writing assistant, you are one product cycle behind.
Anthropic.com · Boston Institute of Analytics · May 1, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Eastern Refinery stopped refining on April 13. The ship to restart it left Saudi Arabia on April 21. It arrives — if all goes well — on May 5. That is 22 days from shutdown to restart, covering roughly 2,400 km of alternative sea route because the normal one is a war zone. Somewhere in that number is the actual cost of the Hormuz crisis for Bangladesh: not a headline, not a press release. Just a ship taking the long way home to keep our petrol pumps running. Monday mornings should feel like a fresh start. This one feels like a stock-taking of how much we depend on things we do not control.
— Founder · Monday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
SUNDAY, 3 MAY 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Free forever
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
Bangladesh's US trade deal faces parliament review demand — and a legal cloud from Washington
The agreement Bangladesh signed with the United States on February 9, 2026 — three days before the national election — is now facing two pressures at once. Domestically, independent MP Rumeen Farhana has demanded the deal be brought before parliament for scrutiny. The agreement fixed Bangladesh's reciprocal tariff at 19%, down from a threatened 37%, and commits Dhaka to purchasing $3.5 billion annually in US agricultural products (wheat, soy, cotton, corn) and $15 billion in energy over 15 years. Critics flag GMO import clauses and sovereignty constraints on digital and nuclear deals. Internationally, a US Supreme Court ruling in late February found the IEEPA authority underpinning such deals violated federal law — the same framework Malaysia used to declare its deal null and void. Bangladesh has not followed suit. For Dhaka's RMG sector, the 19% rate remains intact. For everyone else, the fine print is still being read.
City Bank posts 162% profit surge in Q1 2026 — but NPL backdrop remains severe
City Bank PLC reported a 162% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q1 2026, driven by robust growth in core banking income. The result is one of the strongest quarterly performances among listed private banks. The contrast is sharp: while selective institutions are recovering, the sector overall still carries NPL levels around ~36% of total credit — a 25-year high. Bangladesh Bank has five banks under special observation. The banking picture in Bangladesh in 2026 is not one story; it is two very different stories told in the same room.
Boro paddy harvest threatened by extreme weather in haor region
The haor region had been on track for a strong Boro harvest in 2026. From late April, extreme weather disrupted the race to harvest, thresh, and dry paddy before floodwaters arrive. This matters for food security: the haor crop is a major annual contribution to the national grain stockpile. With food inflation still at 8.24% in March and soybean oil already at Tk 199/litre, any supply disruption from the domestic crop would add direct pressure on low-income households. One to watch closely through May.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.70 ৳
BB interbank close · Apr 30, 2:30 PM
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~17.97 ৳
Mid-market · Apr 30
DSEX (Last Close, 30 Apr)
5,286.87 pts
▼ −30.49 pts · −0.57%
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪২,৪৯৫ ৳
▲ +Tk 2,158 · Updated 30 Apr
Inflation Rate (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Eased from 9.13% · Food: 8.24%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
~36%
▲ 25-year high · 5 banks under observation
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: ↓ revised · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (May 1 close) | ~$108/bbl ▼ Iran sends updated peace proposal via Pakistan; down from $114+ intraday high on Apr 30 |
| WTI Crude (May 1 close) | ~$102/bbl ▼ −3% on day · Trump: "not satisfied" with Iran's offer · Blockade stays |
| Strait of Hormuz | Effectively closed · Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei vows Tehran retains control; oil up ~60% since war began Feb 28 |
| Iran War Status | Iran sent revised peace proposal via Pakistani mediators · Trump: "made strides but not satisfied" · US faces 60-day War Powers deadline · No deal signed |
| Wall St (May 1 close) | S&P 500 +0.29% → 7,230 (record) · Nasdaq +0.89% → 25,114 (record) · Dow −0.31% → 49,499 · Apple +3% on earnings beat |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% · Held at Apr 29 FOMC — likely Powell's final meeting · New chair expected mid-May · Markets pricing no cuts in 2026 |
| US CPI (Mar '26) | 3.3% annual · Core 2.6% · Energy drove surge; April data due May 12 |
| Bitcoin (May 1) | ~$78,178 +2.4% on day · Still ~$18K below year-ago levels · ETF outflows last week |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% · ART deal intact; parliament scrutiny demanded · Malaysia declared its equivalent deal "null and void" · BD has not followed |
| US–China Trade | US tariffs on China ~45% · BD RMG watching for order diversion as Chinese exports reroute |
| Goldman Sachs | Brent avg $83/bbl for 2026; Hormuz closure upside risk vs. demand destruction downside |
| IEA Warning | Global oil demand set to decline in 2026 for first time since COVID — conflict wiping out all growth |
| Asian Markets (May 1) | Nikkei 225 +0.38% → 59,513 · Kospi: Japan holiday; markets tracking Wall St record & Iran deal hopes |
| Saudi Arabia | BD loading Murban crude from Aramco for May arrival via Red Sea alt-route; Brent-WTI spread at multi-year highs |
| Middle East / Israel | Israel defense minister signals possible fresh Iran strikes; war now entering week 10 |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
A Nebraska attorney was suspended from practice last month after his appellate brief contained 57 defective citations out of 63 — including 20 fabricated cases, fake quotations, and nonexistent statutes generated by AI. He denied using AI. The court didn't believe him. US courts have now imposed over $145,000 in sanctions against lawyers for unverified AI-generated filings in Q1 2026 alone. The signal for professionals in Dhaka is not "avoid AI." It is: AI output is your responsibility, not the tool's. Whether you are writing a tender document, a board note, or a legal brief — AI drafts require human verification before submission. The tool generates. You own the result. This is now being enforced, not just advised.
crescendo.ai · Nebraska Supreme Court · Q1 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
The Bangladesh-US trade deal was signed three days before a national election by an outgoing government, in secret, with a non-disclosure clause. Now parliament wants to see it. Malaysia already tore its equivalent deal up. Our RMG sector needs the 19% tariff to hold. But 700,000 tonnes of American wheat per year — for five years — is a commitment that will outlast this parliament, this government, and possibly this decade. Nobody was told. A Sunday morning in early May, and the most consequential trade agreement in a generation is still being read by the people it governs. That is the texture of this week.
— Founder · Sunday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
SATURDAY, 2 MAY 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Free forever
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
Bangladesh repurposes $1.13 billion in WB & AIIB loans — the energy & food crisis is being priced in
In a decision that tells you more than any press release, the Finance Ministry on April 27 quietly redirected $1.135 billion from existing World Bank and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank projects toward emergency energy and food imports. That is not a borrowing increase — it is a triage: funds already committed to development are now being diverted to keep fuel, gas, and fertiliser flowing as Middle East prices remain elevated. $785 million comes from 12 World Bank projects; $350 million from one AIIB project. Bangladesh activated the WB's Rapid Response Option on April 5, which allows up to 10% of ongoing funds to be redirected. Economists caution that hard-term borrowing now makes up a growing share of budget support — at interest rates of SOFR + 0.50% to 1.45%, these are not concessional loans. The underlying message: the Hormuz closure is no longer a global headline. It is now a line item in Bangladesh's budget.
April remittance on track for another record — $2.58 billion in 25 days
Bangladesh received $2.578 billion in the first 25 days of April 2026, averaging $103 million per day — up 14.5% year-on-year for the same period. Total FY26 remittance (July–April 25) has reached $28.79 billion, up nearly 20% over last year. The March all-time monthly record of $3.755 billion now looks like a new floor. The risk economists flag: over 60% of workers are in the Gulf — the very region where the war is being fought. Diversification into Europe is now a policy priority; a government seminar this week targeted sending one million skilled workers to Europe by 2031.
Soybean oil up again — Tk 199/litre as import costs bite
The government raised the retail price of bottled soybean oil by 2%, from Tk 195 to Tk 199 per litre, citing rising international prices for the heavily import-dependent commodity. This is the second edible oil adjustment in two months and adds to food inflation pressure that had already eased to 8.24% in March after peaking at 9.30% in February. With the Middle East conflict keeping freight costs elevated, non-food inflation actually rose slightly to 9.09% even as the headline number eased.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.80 ৳
Mid-market rate · May 2
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~16.92 ৳
▲ Mid-market · May 2
DSEX (Last Close, 30 Apr)
5,286 pts
▼ −30.49 pts · −0.57%
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪২,৪৯৫ ৳
▲ +Tk 2,158 · Updated 30 Apr
Inflation Rate (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Eased from 9.13% in Feb · Food 8.24%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
~36%
▲ 25-year high of total credit
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: ↓ revised · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (May 1) | ~$110/bbl ▲ Iran deal uncertainty; down from $114+ intraday high |
| WTI Crude (May 1) | ~$101/bbl ▲ Iran peace proposal via Pakistan; WTI fell ~2% on the news |
| Strait of Hormuz | Effectively closed · US naval blockade continues; Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei vows Tehran will retain control of the strait |
| Iran War Status | Iran sent peace proposal through Pakistani mediators; Trump faces 60-day War Powers deadline · Ceasefire holds but no deal signed; Trump vows blockade continues |
| US–China Tariff | US tariffs on China ~45%; BD manufacturers watching for order diversion opportunity into RMG |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% Deal intact · ART signed Feb 12; MP demands parliamentary review |
| Wall St (May 1 close) | S&P 500 +0.29% → 7,230 (record) · Nasdaq +0.89% → 25,114 (record) · Dow −0.31% → 49,499 · Apple +3% boosted tech |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% Held at Apr 29 meeting · Powell era ends mid-May; markets pricing no cuts in 2026 |
| US CPI (Mar '26) | 3.3% annual · Core CPI 2.6% · Energy up 10.9% driving headline; April data due May 12 |
| Bitcoin | ~$78,178 +$1,861 from yesterday · Down ~$18,000 YoY; ETF outflows last week |
| Goldman Sachs | Brent avg forecast $83/bbl for 2026; two-way risk — Hormuz closure upside vs. weaker demand downside |
| IEA Warning | Global oil demand set to decline in 2026 for first time since COVID — conflict wiping out all demand growth |
| India–BD Relation | India supplying diesel via pipeline; BD seeks to diversify crude sources amid Hormuz closure |
| Saudi Arabia | Key crude supplier to BD; BD loading Murban cargo from Aramco for May arrival via Red Sea alt-route |
| RMG Export YTD | FY26 remittance up ~20% YoY; RMG ~$40–42B/year; tariff diversion from China being watched closely |
| Middle East Situation | US naval blockade on Iranian ports in force; Iran supreme leader rules out giving up nuclear/missile capability; peace talks via Pakistan ongoing |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
The AI model race moved so fast this year that the model you chose three months ago may already be outdated. As of May 2026, OpenAI shipped GPT-5.5 in April, Anthropic has released four major Claude updates since January, and Google's Gemini 3.1 now integrates natively inside Docs, Sheets and Gmail. The practical signal for Dhaka's professionals: stop picking one tool and being loyal to it. The firms getting value right now are using Claude for quality writing, Gemini for Google Workspace tasks, and GPT-5.5 for complex multi-step document work — mixing them by task. More importantly, Microsoft Agent 365 launched May 1, 2026, bringing autonomous multi-step AI workflows inside Excel, Word and PowerPoint. If your team uses Microsoft 365, that is the most immediate upgrade available this week — no new app required.
DataNorth AI · blog.mean.ceo · May 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Bangladesh just quietly redirected over a billion dollars of existing loans to pay for fuel. Not new borrowing — existing development money, pulled from roads and schools and hospitals, rerouted to energy imports. That is the war reaching us without a single bomb. Wall Street closed at a record last night. Nasdaq hit 25,000 for the first time. Apple beat earnings. And somewhere in our Finance Ministry, someone is calculating how many months of diesel we can afford before the next shipment. The Strait of Hormuz is not on the front page here. But it is in the budget. May arrives with the same unresolved tension: record remittances propping up reserves while every import costs more. We are holding, but not moving forward.
— Founder · Saturday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
FRIDAY, 01 MAY 2026 · MAY DAY
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Free forever
✊ Bangladesh Labour — May Day 2026 Snapshot
4.4M
RMG workers
82% of all exports
Tk 12,500
Min. monthly wage
~$102 · set Nov 2023
8.71%
Inflation (Mar '26)
Real wages: still falling
$47B
RMG exports FY25
World's 2nd largest
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy · May Day
On May Day 2026: the worker who keeps Bangladesh running earns $102 a month — and real wages are falling
Today Bangladesh observes International Workers' Day — a public holiday, the stock exchange is closed, banks are shut. The country that is the world's second-largest garment exporter ($47 billion in FY25, 82% of total exports) employs 4.4 million workers in its RMG sector, more than 80% of them women. The minimum wage, set in November 2023, is Tk 12,500 per month — roughly $102. Against March 2026's 8.71% inflation, that wage has lost significant real purchasing power since it was set. Workers have repeatedly demanded Tk 25,000 as a living wage. The government approved Tk 12,500. This gap — between the value of the labour and the wage it earns — is the structural story that Bangladesh Day reports, budget speeches, and economic outlook documents tend to discuss in aggregate but not in the specific: the woman in Ashulia running a sewing machine for $102 a month is the reason Bangladesh's exports exist. On May Day, her name does not appear in any of the dashboards we track.
Oil touched $126 yesterday. Pulled back to $114. Both things are dangerous for Bangladesh.
Brent crude surged intraday to $126.41 on Thursday — a four-year high — driven by reports that the US was considering expanded military action in Iran. It then retreated to close at $114.01 as investors took profits. WTI closed at $105.07. The intraday spike is its own story: markets are pricing in the possibility of escalation beyond the current blockade. Even the "pullback" level of $114 is catastrophic for Bangladesh's import bill. Every $10 rise in Brent adds approximately $1.5 billion to Bangladesh's annual energy import cost. The Saudi crude cargo is due to arrive Chattogram today or tomorrow. Diesel stock remains at ~10 days. The cargo's arrival, if on schedule, is the single most operationally important event happening in Bangladesh this weekend — not any May Day rally.
Wall Street posts its best April since 2020. Apple beats. S&P crosses 7,200 for the first time.
The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 7,209.01 (+1.02%) — its first ever close above 7,200 and the best monthly performance since 2020. Nasdaq reached 24,892.31 (+0.89%). The Dow gained 790 points to 49,652.14 (+1.62%). Apple reported Q2 FY26 after market close: EPS $2.01 (beat $1.96), revenue $111.2B (beat $109.7B), iPhone revenue $57.0B, Services $31.0B. Separately, Tim Cook announced he will step down as CEO later in 2026; hardware chief John Ternus named as successor. Apple shares rose ~2% after-hours. US PCE inflation (Mar): 3.5% YoY. US GDP Q1: 2.0% (below 2.3% est.). Both confirm the Fed was right to hold.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.725 ৳
XE.com · BD market CLOSED — May Day holiday
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
17.95 ৳
XE.com · Apr 30, 01:40 UTC — most recent
DSEX (Apr 30, 2:30 PM)
5,286 pts
▼ −30.49 pts · −0.573% · Exchange CLOSED today
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪২,৪৯৫ ৳
Unchanged · Eff. Apr 29 · BAJUS
Inflation Rate (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Down from 9.13% (Feb) · Q3 FY26 avg: 8.8%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
36%
▲ 9 NBFIs in liquidation
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
🏖 May Day — Public Holiday · DSE & CSE closed · Banks closed · BDT forex market inactive today · Rates carry forward from Thursday close
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (Apr 30 close) | $114.01/bbl ▼ −3.5% — pulled back from intraday spike of $126.41 (4-year high) · still up 60% since war started Feb 28 |
| WTI Crude (Apr 30 close) | $105.07/bbl · US gasoline hit national avg $4.30/gal (4-yr high) · California $6.01/gal · ING: "only Hormuz reopening brings sustained relief" |
| Brent — Intraday Spike $126 | Hit $126.41 briefly Thursday on reports Trump considering further military action · pulled back as traders took profits · JPMorgan: $150+ if Hormuz closed to mid-May · structural supply gap: 14.5M bpd Persian Gulf losses |
| Strait of Hormuz | Effectively closed · daily tanker transits in single digits (was ~3,000/month pre-war) · IEA: "largest supply disruption in history" · even ceasefire today = 4–6 months to market normalisation · ADNOC out-of-Gulf loadings for June confirmed |
| Iran War — 10th Week | Trump: blockade until nuclear deal · Iran: refuses nuclear talks as precondition · US CENTCOM requesting hypersonic missiles (first-ever deployed by US Army) · ceasefire holding but no talks · UAE exited OPEC today (May 1) |
| BD Energy TODAY | Saudi crude cargo expected Chattogram today or tomorrow · 25,000t diesel + crude · ERL on 2 of 4 units · Red Sea rerouting adds $3–4/bbl logistics cost · delivery is Bangladesh's most critical operational event this weekend |
| Wall St (Apr 30 close · Record) | S&P 7,209.01 (+1.02%, first close above 7,200, record) · Nasdaq 24,892.31 (+0.89%, record) · Dow 49,652.14 (+1.62%) · April: best month for US stocks since 2020 · Alphabet +9%, Qualcomm +16%, Caterpillar +10% · Meta −9%, Microsoft −4% |
| Apple Q2 FY26 BEAT | EPS $2.01 (beat $1.96) · Revenue $111.2B (beat $109.7B) · iPhone $57.0B · Services $31.0B (new record) · Tim Cook to step down later 2026 · John Ternus named CEO-designate · stock +2% after-hours |
| US PCE + GDP (Apr 30) | PCE Mar: +3.5% YoY (above Fed's 2% target) · Core PCE: +3.2% YoY · US GDP Q1: +2.0% (below 2.3% est.) · Fed's hold confirmed as correct call · rate cuts still unlikely in 2026 |
| UAE exits OPEC TODAY | Effective May 1 (today) · 59-year OPEC membership ends · UAE targets 5M bpd output unconstrained · Saxo: "removes the production quota straitjacket" · short-term irrelevant while Hormuz closed |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% (held unanimously Apr 29) · Powell's final meeting · 4 dissents (first since 1992) · Kevin Warsh cleared Senate Banking Committee · term ends May 15 |
| Goldman / JPMorgan | Goldman Q4 Brent avg: $90 (base) · JPMorgan: $150+ if Hormuz closed to mid-May · Goldman demand: April consumption ~3.6M bpd below February level · "extreme inventory draws" |
| BD–US Tariff / Trade | 19% · Trade deal intact · Boeing deal expected by Apr 30 (3rd terminal opening by Dec) · US wheat deal confirmed · RMG order diversion from China-tariff rerouting remains a BD opportunity |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
The Big Tech AI verdict is now complete with Apple's results. The picture across all five Magnificent 7 reporters this week is clearer than expected: cloud AI (Google, AWS, Azure) is generating real, accelerating revenue. Enterprise customers are paying. Google Cloud grew 63%, AWS 28%, Azure 40%. Consumer AI (Meta's Reels, Microsoft's Copilot consumer tier) is generating less certainty — hence the capex concern. Apple's AI story is entirely different: Tim Cook stepping down, with John Ternus (hardware) taking over, signals Apple is betting its next decade on device-level AI, not cloud AI. For Dhaka professionals: if you use Google Workspace, AWS, or Azure at work — the AI inside those tools is being invested in heavily and will improve faster. If your AI workflow is mostly ChatGPT consumer or Meta's tools — watch the guidance more carefully. The AI investment cycle is real. The returns are concentrating in enterprise cloud, not consumer interfaces. That is the May 1 morning signal.
CNBC · Yahoo Finance · Schwab · 24/7 Wall St. · April 30, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
May Day. I think about her every year on this day — the woman in Ashulia who wakes up before five, boards a bus that is already overcrowded, operates a machine for ten hours, earns Tk 12,500 a month, and goes home to a family living on that. The brands she sews for have market capitalisations that dwarf Bangladesh's entire GDP. Apple just reported $111 billion in a single quarter. One quarter. She made $102 last month. I am not saying this to perform outrage. I am saying it because this newsletter is supposed to be honest about what Dhaka's professionals need to understand. And the most important thing to understand is that the economy we track every morning — the DSEX, the exchange rate, the Brent price, the Big Tech earnings — is built on a foundation that we almost never look at directly. Today we do. Happy May Day. The cargo from Saudi Arabia should arrive today. The diesel situation is still critical. We are back Monday.
— Founder · May Day morning · Dhaka · শ্রমজীবী মানুষদের প্রতি শ্রদ্ধা
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
THURSDAY, 30 APRIL 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Free forever
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
Brent hits $118. Trump says the blockade runs until Iran accepts a nuclear deal. Bangladesh's May cargo is now a prayer.
On Wednesday, President Trump told Axios directly: "The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing. They are choking like a stuffed pig." He confirmed the US naval blockade of Iranian ports will continue indefinitely — until Iran agrees to a nuclear deal, not merely a Hormuz reopening. Brent crude surged 6% to $118.03/bbl — its highest close since June 2022. WTI crossed $100 for the first time in four years, closing at $106.88/bbl. For Bangladesh: the Saudi crude cargo expected at Chattogram by May 2–3 is now navigating rerouted shipping through Yanbu (Red Sea). ADNOC has formally told customers they can receive UAE crude loaded outside the Gulf in June. These are not workarounds — they are confirmations that the Hormuz closure is being treated as semi-permanent by the producers themselves. Bangladesh's diesel stock remains critically low at ~10 days. If the May cargo is delayed further, load-shedding and fuel rationing return before mid-May.
UAE exits OPEC after nearly 60 years — OPEC's structural authority effectively ends
The UAE announced on Tuesday its departure from OPEC and OPEC+, effective May 1, 2026 — tomorrow. Abu Dhabi joined in 1967 and has been one of the cartel's most consequential members. The exit allows the UAE to pursue its own production timeline — targeting 5 million bpd by 2027 (up from ~3.4M now) — unconstrained by OPEC quotas. In the short term, with Hormuz closed and Fujairah repeatedly attacked, UAE production gains cannot reach markets anyway. But the structural signal is clear: the era of coordinated OPEC production management is fracturing under the pressure of the war. For Bangladesh's energy planners, this means the post-war supply recovery will likely be faster and more competitive, but the path there is still entirely dependent on when Hormuz reopens.
IMF World Economic Outlook released today — global growth slows to 3.1% under war shadow
The IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook — its flagship global report — publishes its full version today. The headline: global growth projected at 3.1% in 2026, down from recent outcomes, under the assumption of a limited conflict. The IMF warns that a prolonged war, deeper geopolitical fragmentation, or AI productivity disappointment could weaken growth further and "destabilize financial markets." Pressures are concentrated in emerging market and developing economies — commodity importers with existing vulnerabilities. Bangladesh is explicitly in that category: high import dependence, low reserves, and a banking sector under stress.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.716 ৳
google.com/finance · 29 Apr, 11:20:00 UTC
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
17.95 ৳
XE.com mid-market · Apr 30, 01:40 UTC · live
DSEX (Apr 29, 2:30 PM)
5,317 pts
▲ +8.47 pts · +0.160% · 4th session in war-era range
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪২,৪৯৫ ৳
▼ −Tk 4,432 · 59th revision 2026 · Eff. Apr 29
Inflation Rate (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Down from 9.13% (Feb) · Q3 FY26 avg: 8.8% (BB)
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
36%
▲ 9 NBFIs in liquidation · Aviva admin active
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
✔ DATA CORRECTION: US Fed Rate has been 3.50–3.75% since December 2025 (three 25bp cuts in Sep/Oct/Dec 2025). Previous ORAWEK issues incorrectly cited 4.25–4.50%, which was the pre-cut rate. Corrected as of today. Source: CNBC, CNN, Fox Business — Apr 29, 2026 Fed decision confirmation.
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (Apr 29 close) $118 | $118.03/bbl ▲ +6.1% · Highest since June 2022 · Trump confirmed extended indefinite blockade · 9th straight session gain |
| WTI Crude (Apr 29 close) | $106.88/bbl ▲ +7% · Above $100 for first time this cycle · JPMorgan: $150+ if Hormuz stays closed to mid-May |
| Strait of Hormuz | Effectively closed · Trump: blockade until nuclear deal, not just Hormuz reopening · ceasefire holding but negotiations structurally collapsed · ADNOC offering out-of-Gulf loadings for June — first formal acknowledgment of semi-permanence |
| Iran War — Status | 10th week of war · Trump: "they are choking like a stuffed pig" · Iran has offered Hormuz reopening but refuses nuclear talks · US Navy blockade of Iranian ports continues · no ceasefire breakthrough in sight |
| UAE Exits OPEC TODAY | Effective May 1 (tomorrow) · 59-year membership ends · UAE targets 5M bpd by 2027 unconstrained · short-term irrelevant while Hormuz closed · long-term: post-war supply recovery faster and more competitive · OPEC's structural authority fracturing |
| Wall St (Apr 29 close) | S&P 7,135.95 (−0.04%) · Nasdaq 24,673.24 (+0.04%) · Dow 48,861.81 (−0.57%) · 5th straight losing day for Dow · After-hours: Alphabet +6%, Amazon +3%, Meta −6%, Microsoft ~flat |
| Big Tech Results OVERNIGHT | Alphabet: Google Cloud $20B (+63% YoY) — beat · AI enterprise demand confirmed · capex raised · Amazon: AWS $37.59B (+28%) — beat · Microsoft: Azure +40%, Intelligent Cloud $34.68B — beat · Meta: revenue +33% YoY BUT capex raised $10B more → shares −6% after-hours · AI spending verdict: real revenue confirmed, but Meta's cost escalation spooked investors |
| Apple — Reports Tonight | Apple reports Q1 FY26 after close today (Thu) · last of the Magnificent 7 this cycle · stock down ~1.3% this week · watch for iPhone demand, Services revenue, AI product commentary |
| US Fed Rate CORRECTED | 3.50–3.75% · Held unanimously · Powell's final meeting as Chair · 4 dissents (first since Oct 1992) · 3 Fed presidents opposed "easing bias" language · Kevin Warsh cleared Senate Banking Committee · Powell stays on as Governor |
| IMF WEO April 2026 TODAY | Full report published Apr 30 · global growth 3.1% (2026) under limited-conflict assumption · global inflation ticks up 2026 then declines 2027 · "risks decisively on downside" · commodity importers most vulnerable — Bangladesh explicitly in risk category |
| US–China Trade | ~45% tariffs on China hold · US sanctioning Chinese refiners buying Iranian crude · adds pressure on energy market · BD–US tariff: 19% — deal intact |
| Goldman Sachs / JPMorgan | Goldman: Q4 2026 Brent $90 avg (but current pace exceeds this) · JPMorgan: $150+ if Hormuz stays closed to mid-May · IEA: "largest energy security threat in history" |
| Saudi Arabia / BD Energy | Saudi crude rerouted via Yanbu (Red Sea) to bypass Hormuz · BD cargo due Chattogram May 2–3 · higher logistics cost and delay risk · diesel stock critical |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
The Big Tech AI verdict is in — and it is more nuanced than the market expected. Alphabet won the night: Google Cloud hit $20 billion in revenue, up 63% year-on-year — enterprise AI demand is real and accelerating. AWS grew 28%, Azure 40%. The AI infrastructure spending is generating real revenue. But Meta's shares fell 6% after-hours because it raised its 2026 capex by an additional $10 billion — investors who wanted proof of returns are now staring at another spending increase. The practical lesson for Dhaka professionals: the companies closest to enterprise customers (Google Cloud, AWS, Azure) are winning; the companies spending most on consumer AI infrastructure (Meta) are being punished for it in the short term. For anyone building with AI tools: Google, Amazon, and Microsoft products are likely to become more capable, faster — their AI businesses are growing into their investment. Apple reports tonight and may reset the consumer AI narrative entirely.
CNBC · NBC News · Yahoo Finance · April 29–30, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
April ends this morning and I want to be honest about what this month has looked like from Dhaka. We entered April with cautious optimism — a new government, a US trade deal, inflation easing slightly. We are closing it with Brent at $118, the UAE leaving OPEC, the IMF withholding its tranche, nine NBFIs in liquidation, and Trump telling the world he will blockade Iran until they surrender their nuclear programme. The Saudi cargo that is supposed to arrive in Chattogram in three days — the one that is supposed to keep our generators and vehicles running — is being routed through the Red Sea on higher-cost logistics because the normal passage does not exist anymore. I keep thinking about the gap between the economic decisions made in Washington and Geneva, and the practical consequences in Dhaka. Jerome Powell stepped down yesterday as Fed Chair. The IMF publishes its World Economic Outlook today. Nobody in those institutions is thinking primarily about a country where diesel is running out in ten days. We are.
— Founder · Thursday morning · Dhaka · End of April 2026
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
WEDNESDAY, 29 APRIL 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Free forever
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
Bangladesh Bank sounds the alarm: inflation rising again — money printing is the reason
Bangladesh Bank released its Q3 FY26 quarterly economic report yesterday, showing average inflation climbed to 8.8% in January–March, up from 8.3% the previous quarter — driven by Eid-related food demand and persistent energy costs. Food inflation jumped 1.2 percentage points to 8.6%; protein prices alone accounted for 44.6% of the food inflation increase. The timing is politically and economically awkward. Economists and business leaders have separately raised grave concern over the government's recent practice of borrowing directly from Bangladesh Bank — effectively printing money — to meet its spending deficit. Reserve money growth has surged to 13.35% year-on-year in February, more than double the 6.16% recorded a year earlier, with roughly Tk 200 billion (USD 1.65B) injected into the economy. The Bangladesh Bank Governor last Saturday denied any such printing had occurred. The central bank's own quarterly report, published 24 hours later, tells a different story about the inflationary trajectory. Dhaka professionals need to watch this closely: if reserve money continues to expand while Hormuz remains closed and fuel prices are elevated, the March easing to 8.71% may prove brief.
Trump rejects Iran's Hormuz proposal — oil hits $111, WTI crosses $100
On Tuesday, multiple sources confirmed President Trump told his advisors he was dissatisfied with Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which would have required the US to lift its naval blockade. Secretary of State Rubio called the offer inadequate — "that's not opening the straits; those are international waterways." Brent crude surged nearly 3% to close at $111.26/bbl; WTI crossed $100 for the first time this cycle, closing at $99.93/bbl. Chip and tech stocks fell on a Wall Street Journal report questioning OpenAI's financial metrics — Nasdaq dropped 0.9%, S&P 500 fell 0.5%. This is the worst combined signal in two weeks: the diplomatic door has reopened and closed again in 48 hours.
Today is Jerome Powell's last Federal Reserve press conference
The Fed's two-day meeting concludes today with a rate decision at 2 PM ET (midnight Dhaka time). Rate is expected to hold at 4.25–4.50% — 100% probability per CME FedWatch. But the real watch is Powell's press conference: it is his final one as Fed Chair. His term ends May 15; Kevin Warsh is nominated as his successor. What Powell says about oil-driven inflation, the outlook for cuts, and the economy's resilience will set market tone for May. Bangladesh's borrowing costs, export competitiveness, and capital flows all move with Fed signalling.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.725 ৳
XE.com mid-market · Apr 28, 21:22 UTC
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
17.98 ৳
XE.com mid-market · Apr 28, 23:52 UTC
DSEX (Apr 28, 2:30 PM)
5,308 pts
▲ +8.32 pts · +0.157% · Quiet recovery
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪৪,৭১১ ৳
▼ −Tk 2,216 · 58th revision · Eff. Apr 28
Inflation Rate (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Eased from 9.13% (Feb) · Q3 avg: 8.8% (BB report)
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
36%
▲ 9 NBFIs in liquidation · Aviva admin active
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (Apr 28 close) SURGE | $111.26/bbl ▲ +2.9% · Trump rejected Iran proposal · highest close in 3 weeks · JPMorgan warns $150 if Hormuz stays closed to mid-May |
| WTI Crude (Apr 28 close) | $99.93/bbl ▲ +3.1% · First time above $100 this cycle · 7th consecutive session gain |
| Strait of Hormuz | Iran's offer rejected by Trump · "not opening the straits" — Rubio · traffic near zero · Iraq tanker passed Mon but no follow-through · OPEC+ May quota hike called "academic" by analysts |
| Iran War Status | Ceasefire holding but talks collapsed again · Trump gave Iran new deadline: reopen Hormuz or "face hell" · 9th week of war · IRGC mines in strait; Gulf officials: months to repair even if war ends today |
| Wall St (Apr 28 close) | S&P 500 7,138 (−0.5%) · Nasdaq 24,663 (−0.9%) · Dow 49,136 (−0.06%) · Chip stocks led losses on WSJ report questioning OpenAI metrics · Coca-Cola +6% beat |
| Fed — Today's Decision TODAY | Rate hold expected 4.25–4.50% · Decision 2 PM ET (midnight Dhaka) · Powell's FINAL press conference as Fed Chair · term ends May 15 · Kevin Warsh nominated as successor |
| Big Tech Earnings Tonight | Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft all report after market close today (Wed) · Apple reports Thu · AI capex disclosure is the key signal for global tech investment cycle |
| OpenAI / AI Slowdown Risk | WSJ report: OpenAI missed internal financial metrics · chip stocks sold off Tue · Qualcomm −2%, Nvidia −1.5% · market now cautious ahead of Big Tech AI capex disclosures tonight |
| US–China Trade | China's NDRC ordered Meta to unwind $2B Manus acquisition · tariffs at ~45% on China · BD manufacturers watching RMG order diversion opportunity |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% · Trade deal intact · BD committed $3.5B/yr US agri + $15B energy over 15 yrs |
| OPEC+ (May quota) | Agreed +206,000 bpd for May — called "academic" while Hormuz closed · represents <2% of disrupted supply · next OPEC+ meeting May 3 |
| Goldman Sachs | Q4 2026 Brent target: $90 avg · warns of "extreme inventory draws" at 11–12M bpd pace · $150+ possible if Hormuz stays shut to mid-May (JPMorgan) |
| Saudi Arabia / BD Energy | Saudi crude cargo en route · Chattogram arrival May 2–3 · Saudi rerouting exports via Yanbu (Red Sea) to bypass Hormuz · critical for BD diesel supply |
| India–BD / Regional | Energy cooperation ongoing · Pakistan hosting new round of diplomatic outreach on Hormuz · Japan, S. Korea pressing for international solution |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
A Wall Street Journal report published Tuesday said OpenAI recently missed several internal financial metrics. Chip stocks immediately fell. This is worth noting carefully: the market's AI enthusiasm has rested on the assumption that enterprise adoption is accelerating. If OpenAI — the defining company of the current AI cycle — is struggling to convert investment into revenue, the entire AI capex thesis gets harder to defend. For Dhaka professionals, the practical question is simple: if Big Tech reports weaker-than-expected AI revenue tonight, expect AI tools to get cheaper and more competitive faster — companies will fight harder for adoption. If they beat expectations, the investment cycle accelerates and tools improve faster. Either outcome is useful. What is not useful is building your workflow around AI hype rather than actual deployment. Tonight's earnings are the reality check. The answer arrives by Thursday morning, Dhaka time.
Wall Street Journal · Yahoo Finance · CNBC · April 28, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
On Saturday the Bangladesh Bank Governor said publicly that no money was printed. On Tuesday the central bank published a quarterly report showing reserve money grew at 13.35% — more than double the previous year. Both things happened in the same week. One of them is not true, or the Governor's definition of "printing money" is different from every economist's definition. This is the kind of institutional credibility gap that compounds over time. Markets notice when the central bank's communications and its own data point in opposite directions. And beyond the credibility question, the underlying problem is real: the government is spending more than it collects, it cannot get the IMF tranche, external budget financing has dried up, and fuel costs are at record highs. Meanwhile Trump rejected the Hormuz proposal last night and oil crossed $100. Jerome Powell gives his final press conference today. There is a lot happening on a Wednesday morning in Dhaka.
— Founder · Wednesday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
TUESDAY, 28 APRIL 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
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Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
Finance Minister tells journalists: "We must democratise the economy, not just the politics"
At a pre-budget meeting with economic journalists on Saturday, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury delivered the sharpest public language yet on structural reform. He blamed "patronage politics" directly for the economy's current state — saying it had concentrated wealth in the hands of oligarchs who turned the economy into a tool of political manipulation. His commitments: deregulation of major financial sectors, a new investment-led growth model, and budget spending starting from the deprived rather than the connected. He also confirmed the government is working toward a trillion-dollar economy by 2034. The Bangladesh Bank Governor — also present — denied reports the central bank had recently printed Tk 200 billion, calling the reports "not true at all." This is the clearest signal yet of what the next budget's direction will be. The question every professional in Dhaka is asking: will the rhetoric translate to the budget on the table, or is this another pre-budget performance?
External financing for Bangladesh shrinking as war shocks pile up
Budget-support funding from foreign financiers has effectively dried up, with only $750 million confirmed as the fiscal year nears its end — far below target. The IMF tranche ($1.3B) remains delayed. Brent crude crossed $108 on Monday. The Finance Minister himself warned that the Middle East crisis could cut South Asian growth by up to 1 percentage point. Bangladesh's forex reserves, at $33.19B at December end, are being tested from multiple directions simultaneously. This is the fiscal reality that the new budget must confront.
Iran offers Hormuz reopening — but postpones nuclear talks to a later stage
In a significant development on Monday, Iran sent a new proposal — via Pakistani mediators — to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, while pushing nuclear negotiations to a separate, future process. The White House was assessing the proposal as of Monday evening. Markets responded cautiously: S&P and Nasdaq both hit record highs (+0.12%, +0.20%), while oil stayed elevated with Brent at $108. For Bangladesh, this is the most consequential single development of the week — a reopened Hormuz within days would transform the energy and inflation outlook immediately.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.63 ৳
XE.com mid-market · Apr 28, 02:53 UTC
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
17.96 ৳
XE.com mid-market · Apr 28, 03:44 UTC
DSEX (Apr 27, 2:30 PM)
5,300 pts
▼ −15.61 pts · −0.294% · Pulled back from Mon gain
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪৬,৯২৭ ৳
Unchanged · Effective Apr 23 · BAJUS
Inflation Rate (Feb '26, BBS)
9.13%
▲ 10-month high · IMF FY26 forecast: 9.2%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
36%
▲ 9 NBFIs in liquidation; Aviva admin appointed
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (Apr 27 close) | $108.23/bbl ▲ +2.9% · Iran proposal news trimmed gains late · Goldman raised Q4 target to $90 avg (was $80) |
| WTI Crude (Apr 27 close) | $96.37/bbl ▲ +2% · "Market tightening every day" — ING commodities desk |
| Strait of Hormuz UPDATE | Iran proposed reopening Hormuz to US (via Pakistan) on Mon · nuclear talks to be separate · White House assessing · traffic near zero Monday · outcome expected this week |
| Iran War Status | New Iran proposal under US review · ceasefire extended indefinitely · Israel's defence minister awaiting US green light · IRGC seized 2 ships Sunday · war now 2 months old |
| BD Energy / Fuel | Saudi crude cargo due Chattogram May 2–3 · diesel stock critical ~10 days · Hormuz proposal, if accepted, could normalise supply by mid-May |
| Wall St (Apr 27 close) | S&P 7,173.91 (+0.12%, record) · Nasdaq 24,887.10 (+0.20%, record) · Dow 49,167.79 (−0.13%) · Nvidia +4%, Micron +5.6% · Apple −1.3% |
| This Week: Earnings + Fed | Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft report Wed · Apple Thu · Fed decision Wed · BoJ Tue · ECB Thu · 84% of S&P 500 reporters beat estimates so far · AI capex disclosure is the key watch |
| US Fed Rate | 4.25–4.50% · 100% probability of hold (CME) · Powell press conference Wed · criminal investigation into Powell closed by DoJ on Fri |
| Goldman Sachs (Apr 27) | Raised Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $90/bbl (from $80) · estimates 14.5M barrels/day of Persian Gulf production losses · "extreme inventory draws not sustainable" |
| Microsoft–OpenAI NEW | Microsoft announced end of its exclusive partnership with OpenAI on Monday · both companies retain relationship but exclusivity ends · signals AI ecosystem diversification |
| US–China Trade | US tariffs on China ~45% · China's NDRC ordered Meta to unwind its $2B acquisition of Manus (Singapore AI startup with Chinese roots) |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% · Trade deal intact · BD committed $3.5B/yr US agri + $15B energy over 15 yrs |
| India–BD Relation | Energy cooperation ongoing · India supplying diesel via pipeline · Pakistan PM in Saudi Arabia pushing new US-Iran talks |
| IEA Warning | IEA chief: "biggest energy security threat in history" · global oil demand set to decline in 2026 for first time since COVID · Hormuz proposal changes everything if real |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
Microsoft announced yesterday that its exclusive partnership with OpenAI is ending. This is not a breakup — both companies continue working together — but exclusivity is gone. The practical signal for Dhaka professionals: the era of one AI partner per platform is over. Microsoft can now integrate competing models (Anthropic's Claude, Google's Gemini) freely into its products. For anyone using Microsoft 365, Copilot, Azure, or Teams — the AI inside those tools may diversify. Separately, tonight's Big Tech earnings (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft reporting Wednesday Dhaka time) will reveal whether hundreds of billions in AI infrastructure spending is converting to actual enterprise revenue. If it is, AI tools get cheaper and better, faster. If it isn't, the hype cycle deflates. This is the most important AI verdict of the year. The answer arrives by Thursday morning.
TheStreet · CNBC · Yahoo Finance · April 27, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
The Finance Minister used the word "oligarchs" at a pre-budget meeting with journalists on Saturday. That is a word you don't usually hear from finance ministers about their own economy. He is right — and the people in that room know it. The question is whether the budget that follows will actually reflect it, or whether the word functions as a pressure release valve: say the thing publicly, then move on. Meanwhile Iran sent a Hormuz proposal on Monday. If it holds, oil could fall $15 in a week. If it fails, Bangladesh's May cargo is already at risk. I am watching both things on the same Tuesday morning — a pre-budget signal that may or may not mean what it says, and a geopolitical signal that may or may not hold. This is what running a business in Dhaka feels like right now. Very high stakes. Very low certainty.
— Founder · Tuesday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
MONDAY, 27 APRIL 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
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Bangladesh Business & Economy
Bangladesh Bank places Aviva Finance under administrator — the NBFI cleanup moves into execution
This morning, Bangladesh Bank appointed an administrator to take over Aviva Finance Limited, a Shariah-based non-bank financial institution identified for closure. The central bank's move — placing a senior official from its Financial Institutions and Markets Department directly in charge — is part of an active liquidation process covering nine distressed NBFIs. Aviva Finance, formerly under the control of S Alam Group (whose chairman is an associate of ousted PM Sheikh Hasina), holds approximately Tk 809 crore in small individual deposits that are now frozen. The government has given assurances that depositor funds will be refunded in two phases, at a total cost of approximately Tk 5,000 crore. For Dhaka's professionals: if you have funds in any of the nine named institutions — Peoples Leasing, International Leasing, BIFC, FAS Finance, Aviva Finance, Fareast Finance, GSP Finance, Prime Finance, or Premier Leasing — the liquidation clock has formally started.
Pakistan talks collapse — Iran war enters a more dangerous phase this morning
On Saturday, President Trump cancelled the planned Pakistan-mediated US-Iran talks at the last minute, posting that there was "too much time wasted on traveling" and that nobody in Iran's leadership "knows who is in charge." Hours later, Iran's Revolutionary Guard boarded two more cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude jumped 2% to ~$107.89 on Sunday evening as markets reopened. US stock futures fell 0.2–0.3% overnight. This is now the most uncertain the war situation has been in two weeks. Bangladesh's crude cargo is due to arrive Chattogram by May 2–3. Its journey just got longer in risk terms.
Big Tech earnings begin this week — the AI spending verdict arrives
Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft all report Wednesday. Apple reports Thursday. These five companies have collectively risen more than 10% this month on AI infrastructure optimism. This week's earnings will determine whether that optimism holds — or whether the market begins asking harder questions about returns on AI capital spending. For Bangladesh's tech and professional community, the signal matters: AI investment is either accelerating or plateauing globally, and the answer comes in 72 hours.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.75 ৳
Mid-market · Apr 27 (last Update)
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~17.97 ৳
Mid-market · XE.com · Apr 25
DSEX (Apr 26, 2:30 PM)
5,316 pts
▲ +17.60 pts · +0.332% · Edging up in war-era range
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪৬,৯২৭ ৳
▼ −Tk 3,266 · Effective Apr 23 · Unchanged
Inflation Rate (Feb '26, BBS)
9.13%
▲ 10-month high · IMF FY26 est: 9.2%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
36%
▲ 25-year high · 9 NBFIs now in liquidation
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (Apr 26 eve) | ~$107.89/bbl ▲ +2% Sunday · Pakistan talks cancelled · weekly trend still up sharply |
| WTI Crude (Apr 26 eve) | ~$96.63/bbl ▲ +2% · IRGC boarded 2 ships Sunday · strait pressure resumes |
| Strait of Hormuz | Effectively closed · Iran IRGC seized 2 more ships Sunday · Iran says US "breached trust" · IEA: "biggest energy security threat in history" |
| Iran War Status | Pakistan talks CANCELLED by Trump (Sat) · "Too much time wasted … nobody knows who is in charge" · US-Iran ceasefire extended indefinitely but negotiations in disarray · Israel waiting for US green light to resume strikes |
| BD Jet Fuel / Energy | Saudi crude cargo en route · est. arrival Chattogram May 2–3 · diesel stock ~10 days · octane ~45 days after Malaysia shipment landed · ERL on 2 of 4 units |
| Wall St (Apr 25 close) | S&P 500 +0.80% → 7,165 (record) · Nasdaq +1.63% → 24,837 (record) · Dow −0.16% → 49,231 · Sunday night futures: S&P −0.3%, Dow −0.2% |
| This Week: Big Tech | Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft report Wed · Apple reports Thu · All up 6–10%+ this month on AI optimism · results will set tone for global markets |
| US Fed Rate | 4.25–4.50% · Fed meeting this week · 100% probability of hold per CME FedWatch · rate cuts pushed to late 2026 at earliest due to oil-driven inflation |
| US–China Trade | US tariffs on China ~45% · Chinese exports rerouting through third markets · BD manufacturers watching for RMG order diversion |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% · Trade deal intact · BD committed $3.5B/yr US agri + $15B energy over 15 yrs |
| India–BD Relation | Energy cooperation ongoing · India supplying diesel via pipeline · WB affirmed "all-out support" for Bangladesh last week |
| Israel–Lebanon | 3-week ceasefire extension in force · truce fragile · Israel's defence minister says awaiting US green light to resume Iran war |
| Goldman Sachs | Brent avg forecast $83/bbl for 2026 baseline · upside risk escalating if Hormuz talks fail further |
| IEA Warning | IEA chief Fatih Birol: "We are facing the biggest energy security threat in history" · global oil demand set to decline in 2026 for first time since COVID |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
This week delivers the single most important data point of the AI investment cycle: Big Tech earnings. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Apple are reporting within 72 hours. These companies have collectively committed hundreds of billions to AI infrastructure in 2025–26. The question markets — and every professional watching AI — are asking is simple: are enterprise customers actually paying for AI, or are these revenues still a promise? If guidance disappoints, AI investment globally slows. If it beats, the runway extends. For Dhaka professionals building AI literacy: this week is not about which model is best. It is about whether the business case for AI has been proven at scale. The answer lands Wednesday night, Dhaka time.
CNBC · Dan Ives / Wedbush · April 27, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Trump cancelled the Pakistan talks on Saturday. By Sunday night, oil jumped 2% and the IRGC had boarded two more ships. We are back to where we were before the brief Hormuz "opening" three weeks ago — except now there is less faith that a deal is coming, and more evidence that both sides are using the strait as economic leverage rather than seeking a genuine exit. The Bangladesh Bank moving on Aviva Finance this morning is the right call, years overdue. But nine NBFIs going into liquidation while Brent touches $108 and the IMF holds its tranche is a lot for one Monday morning. Someone in Dhaka today has savings locked in Aviva Finance and a generator running on high-priced diesel. That person is waiting on three things simultaneously: a refund, a peace deal, and a loan programme. None of them have a confirmed timeline.
— Founder · Monday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
MONDAY, 27 APRIL 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Free forever
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
Bangladesh Bank places Aviva Finance under administrator — the NBFI cleanup moves into execution
This morning, Bangladesh Bank appointed an administrator to take over Aviva Finance Limited, a Shariah-based non-bank financial institution identified for closure. The central bank's move — placing a senior official from its Financial Institutions and Markets Department directly in charge — is part of an active liquidation process covering nine distressed NBFIs. Aviva Finance, formerly under the control of S Alam Group (whose chairman is an associate of ousted PM Sheikh Hasina), holds approximately Tk 809 crore in small individual deposits that are now frozen. The government has given assurances that depositor funds will be refunded in two phases, at a total cost of approximately Tk 5,000 crore. For Dhaka's professionals: if you have funds in any of the nine named institutions — Peoples Leasing, International Leasing, BIFC, FAS Finance, Aviva Finance, Fareast Finance, GSP Finance, Prime Finance, or Premier Leasing — the liquidation clock has formally started.
Pakistan talks collapse — Iran war enters a more dangerous phase this morning
On Saturday, President Trump cancelled the planned Pakistan-mediated US-Iran talks at the last minute, posting that there was "too much time wasted on traveling" and that nobody in Iran's leadership "knows who is in charge." Hours later, Iran's Revolutionary Guard boarded two more cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude jumped 2% to ~$107.89 on Sunday evening as markets reopened. US stock futures fell 0.2–0.3% overnight. This is now the most uncertain the war situation has been in two weeks. Bangladesh's crude cargo is due to arrive Chattogram by May 2–3. Its journey just got longer in risk terms.
Big Tech earnings begin this week — the AI spending verdict arrives
Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft all report Wednesday. Apple reports Thursday. These five companies have collectively risen more than 10% this month on AI infrastructure optimism. This week's earnings will determine whether that optimism holds — or whether the market begins asking harder questions about returns on AI capital spending. For Bangladesh's tech and professional community, the signal matters: AI investment is either accelerating or plateauing globally, and the answer comes in 72 hours.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.75 ৳
Mid-market · Apr 27 (last Update)
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~17.97 ৳
Mid-market · XE.com · Apr 25
DSEX (Apr 26, 2:30 PM)
5,316 pts
▲ +17.60 pts · +0.332% · Edging up in war-era range
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪৬,৯২৭ ৳
▼ −Tk 3,266 · Effective Apr 23 · Unchanged
Inflation Rate (Feb '26, BBS)
9.13%
▲ 10-month high · IMF FY26 est: 9.2%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
36%
▲ 25-year high · 9 NBFIs now in liquidation
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (Apr 26 eve) | ~$107.89/bbl ▲ +2% Sunday · Pakistan talks cancelled · weekly trend still up sharply |
| WTI Crude (Apr 26 eve) | ~$96.63/bbl ▲ +2% · IRGC boarded 2 ships Sunday · strait pressure resumes |
| Strait of Hormuz | Effectively closed · Iran IRGC seized 2 more ships Sunday · Iran says US "breached trust" · IEA: "biggest energy security threat in history" |
| Iran War Status | Pakistan talks CANCELLED by Trump (Sat) · "Too much time wasted … nobody knows who is in charge" · US-Iran ceasefire extended indefinitely but negotiations in disarray · Israel waiting for US green light to resume strikes |
| BD Jet Fuel / Energy | Saudi crude cargo en route · est. arrival Chattogram May 2–3 · diesel stock ~10 days · octane ~45 days after Malaysia shipment landed · ERL on 2 of 4 units |
| Wall St (Apr 25 close) | S&P 500 +0.80% → 7,165 (record) · Nasdaq +1.63% → 24,837 (record) · Dow −0.16% → 49,231 · Sunday night futures: S&P −0.3%, Dow −0.2% |
| This Week: Big Tech | Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft report Wed · Apple reports Thu · All up 6–10%+ this month on AI optimism · results will set tone for global markets |
| US Fed Rate | 4.25–4.50% · Fed meeting this week · 100% probability of hold per CME FedWatch · rate cuts pushed to late 2026 at earliest due to oil-driven inflation |
| US–China Trade | US tariffs on China ~45% · Chinese exports rerouting through third markets · BD manufacturers watching for RMG order diversion |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% · Trade deal intact · BD committed $3.5B/yr US agri + $15B energy over 15 yrs |
| India–BD Relation | Energy cooperation ongoing · India supplying diesel via pipeline · WB affirmed "all-out support" for Bangladesh last week |
| Israel–Lebanon | 3-week ceasefire extension in force · truce fragile · Israel's defence minister says awaiting US green light to resume Iran war |
| Goldman Sachs | Brent avg forecast $83/bbl for 2026 baseline · upside risk escalating if Hormuz talks fail further |
| IEA Warning | IEA chief Fatih Birol: "We are facing the biggest energy security threat in history" · global oil demand set to decline in 2026 for first time since COVID |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
This week delivers the single most important data point of the AI investment cycle: Big Tech earnings. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Apple are reporting within 72 hours. These companies have collectively committed hundreds of billions to AI infrastructure in 2025–26. The question markets — and every professional watching AI — are asking is simple: are enterprise customers actually paying for AI, or are these revenues still a promise? If guidance disappoints, AI investment globally slows. If it beats, the runway extends. For Dhaka professionals building AI literacy: this week is not about which model is best. It is about whether the business case for AI has been proven at scale. The answer lands Wednesday night, Dhaka time.
CNBC · Dan Ives / Wedbush · April 27, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Trump cancelled the Pakistan talks on Saturday. By Sunday night, oil jumped 2% and the IRGC had boarded two more ships. We are back to where we were before the brief Hormuz "opening" three weeks ago — except now there is less faith that a deal is coming, and more evidence that both sides are using the strait as economic leverage rather than seeking a genuine exit. The Bangladesh Bank moving on Aviva Finance this morning is the right call, years overdue. But nine NBFIs going into liquidation while Brent touches $108 and the IMF holds its tranche is a lot for one Monday morning. Someone in Dhaka today has savings locked in Aviva Finance and a generator running on high-priced diesel. That person is waiting on three things simultaneously: a refund, a peace deal, and a loan programme. None of them have a confirmed timeline.
— Founder · Monday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
SUNDAY, 26 APRIL 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
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Bangladesh Business & Economy
Record fuel price hike signals the government has hit its fiscal wall
Effective April 19, the government raised fuel prices to their highest levels in history — diesel to Tk 115/litre (up Tk 15), octane to Tk 140 (up Tk 20), petrol to Tk 135 (up Tk 19). The move came after weeks of acute shortages and kilometre-long queues at pumps across Dhaka and Chattogram. The government had held prices flat through March and early April, absorbing Tk 5,000 crore per month in subsidies — no longer sustainable with Hormuz closed and import costs surging. Brac EPL estimates seven of nine key economic indicators will face negative pressure from the hike. The energy minister called it a "wartime" necessity. Economists support the move in principle but warn: a population already worn down by two years of 9% inflation now absorbs another direct cost shock, with no cash-transfer safety net in place. The fiscal correction is right. The sequencing is painful.
IMF withholds $1.3B tranche — and proposes a new, stricter programme
At the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, it became clear that Bangladesh will not receive the $1.3 billion June tranche under its existing $5.5 billion programme. The Fund's objections centre on four areas: weak revenue collection, banking sector indiscipline, slow progress on fuel subsidy reform, and the failure to establish a full market-based exchange rate. More significantly, the IMF has proposed starting a new programme with additional conditions. Finance Minister Amir Khosru has confirmed ongoing talks. The timing is uncomfortable — the new government has barely found its feet, and the Fund is already raising the bar. The fuel price hike this week may partly address one of those four conditions. Three remain unresolved.
Standard Chartered flags compounding risks for Bangladesh amid global shocks
Eric Robertsen, Standard Chartered's global head of research, this week warned that Bangladesh's economy faces "renewed pressure" from geopolitical tensions and commodity market disruptions — with risks of elevated inflation, slower growth, and mounting fiscal strain converging simultaneously. The war economy is not a temporary shock for Bangladesh. It is a structural test of whether the post-election government can implement painful reforms fast enough to stay ahead of the spiral.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.75 ৳
Mid-market · Apr 25
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~17.91 ৳
Mid-market · Apr 25
DSEX (Last close, Apr 23)
5,298 pts
▲ +0.00442 pts · +0.00008% · War-era range
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪৬,৯২৭ ৳
▼ −Tk 3,266 · Updated Apr 23
Inflation Rate (Feb '26, BBS)
9.13%
▲ 10-month high · IMF FY26 est: 9.2%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
36%
▲ 25-year high of total credit
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (Apr 25) | ~$105.7/bbl ▲ 5th straight session gain · weekly +17% · Hormuz still closed |
| WTI Crude (Apr 24) | ~$94.9/bbl ▲ Pulled back Fri on Iran talks hope; weekly +14% |
| Strait of Hormuz | Effectively closed · Iran reopened briefly Apr 18, then re-closed when US maintained port blockade · only ~16 ships/day using strait (vs 3,000/month pre-war) |
| Iran War Status | US ceasefire extended indefinitely pending Iranian proposal · VP Vance headed to Islamabad for Pakistan-mediated talks · Iran: "deeply mistrustful" · US blockade of Iranian ports continues · Trump: "no blackmail" |
| BD Jet Fuel / Energy | Diesel stock ~10 days; octane ~45 days after Malaysia shipment (25,000t) arrived Apr 25 · ERL running on 2 of 4 units · new Saudi crude cargo expected May 2–3 |
| Wall St (Apr 25 close) | S&P 500 +0.80% → 7,165 (record) · Nasdaq +1.63% → 24,837 (record) · Dow −0.16% → 49,231 · Intel surged 23% on earnings · Nvidia +4% |
| US Fed Rate | 4.25–4.50% Held · oil-driven inflation concerns; rate cuts pushed further out |
| US–China Trade | US tariffs on China ~45%; Chinese exports rerouting through third markets; BD manufacturers watching for order diversion opportunities |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% Trade deal intact · BD committed to buy $3.5B/yr US agri + $15B energy over 15 yrs |
| India–BD Relation | Energy cooperation ongoing; India supplying diesel via pipeline and sea; World Bank affirms "all-out support" for Bangladesh this week |
| Asian Markets (Fri close) | Mixed · tracking Wall St optimism vs Iran war uncertainty · Japan, Korea broadly positive |
| Israel–Lebanon | Trump announced 3-week ceasefire extension · truce holding · Iran's FM cited Lebanon ceasefire to briefly open Hormuz last week — then reversed |
| US CPI & Core CPI | U. Michigan consumer sentiment 49.8 — near record low · inflation expectations elevated · oil-price pass-through risk persists |
| Goldman Sachs | Brent avg forecast $83/bbl for 2026 baseline; upside risk if Hormuz stays closed beyond Q2 |
| IEA Warning | Global oil demand set to decline in 2026 for first time since COVID — conflict wiping out all demand growth projections |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
OpenAI released GPT-5.5 this week — and the practical signal is not the model itself, it's the framing. OpenAI says it "requires less guidance" to complete complex tasks. Meanwhile, ChatGPT workspace agents can now autonomously execute business tasks across Slack, Gmail, and other tools without human intervention per step. The model gap between GPT-5.5, Claude Sonnet 4.6, and Gemini 3.1 Pro has effectively closed for everyday professional work. The real choice now is about workflow fit, not raw capability. If you are still treating AI as a chat box rather than a task-executor, this week's news is a signal: the tool has moved on. The question is whether your daily work has.
OpenAI · CNBC · MarketingProfs AI Update · April 24–25, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
The government finally raised fuel prices this week — and the reaction was almost entirely about the pain, almost nothing about the logic. Both things are true. It was necessary, and it will hurt people who are already exhausted. What I keep thinking about is this: we are a country where the IMF is delaying a billion-dollar tranche, the central bank is managing record remittances, fuel queues stretched a kilometre, and Wall Street hit an all-time high on the same Friday. The global financial system and our daily reality are running on completely different tracks. Somewhere in Dhaka this morning, someone is calculating whether they can afford the new diesel price to keep a generator running through load-shedding. And somewhere in New York, Intel just surged 23%. That gap is the story nobody writes.
— Founder · Sunday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ — সাপ্তাহিক পর্যালোচনা
SATURDAY, 25 APRIL 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Free forever
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
RMG sector now bracing for a double blow — buyers cutting 8–10% of orders as Dhaka-Chattogram freight up 32%
This week's most important structural story for Bangladesh's economy: Western retailers are expected to cut next-season garment orders by 8–10%, according to senior European buyers speaking to The Daily Star. The reason is a combination of unsold winter inventory in Western stores and rising prices that consumers are resisting. Meanwhile, inside Bangladesh, the fuel crisis has already pushed Dhaka–Chattogram truck fares from Tk 38,000 to Tk 50,000 per truck — a 32% increase — even without an official notification. BGMEA confirmed production is down 25–30% from energy shortfalls; factories in Gazipur, Narayanganj, and Savar are running generators on rationed diesel. The new bus fare revision (+11 paisa/km, effective April 23) has not calmed costs elsewhere — launch operators want a 36–42% increase; goods transport has moved unilaterally. This is Bangladesh's core export sector facing simultaneous demand compression from abroad and cost escalation at home. The April-June export figures, due in July, will be the clearest measure of how bad this quarter actually is.
IMF: Bangladesh per capita GDP to edge past India in 2026 — a milestone amid a difficult year
The IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook projects Bangladesh's per capita GDP at $2,911 for 2026, narrowly ahead of India's $2,812 — a reversal Bangladesh last achieved in 2023–24. India is projected to reclaim the lead from 2027. The headline is worth noting, but so is the context: Bangladesh's Q2 FY26 GDP growth slowed to 3.03% (BBS provisional data, released April 24), down from a revised 3.53% in Q2 FY25. The first quarter came in at 4.96%. The energy crisis landing in Q3 and Q4 now threatens to pull the full-year number well below any multilateral forecast.
Remittances: half now at risk — PRI flags Gulf dependency as Hormuz crisis deepens
PRI's seminar note this week carried a quiet alarm alongside the money-printing disclosure: nearly 50% of Bangladesh's remittance inflows originate from Gulf countries. With the Iran-US war disrupting Gulf economies and labour markets, any slowdown in Gulf remittances would hit Bangladesh's most stable external revenue line. Remittances are currently one of the few macro stabilisers still performing reliably.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.70 ৳
Stable · 2026 high: 123.17 · 2026 avg: 122.44
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~18.17 ৳
▲ Near 52-week high · EBL rate Apr 23
DSEX (last close, Apr 23)
5,298.59 pts
+0.004 pts · Flat · No trading Apr 24 (Fri) · DSE: Sun–Thu
Inflation (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Mar eased · PRI warns Apr will reverse on fuel + printing
Q2 FY26 GDP Growth
3.03%
▼ BBS provisional · Down from 3.53% Q2 FY25 · Released Apr 24
BD Per Capita GDP '26
$2,911 IMF
▲ Ahead of India ($2,812) for 2026 · India leads again from '27
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held · Fitch expects no cut in FY26/27
Gold 22K / Bhori (BAJUS)
2,50,193 ৳
▲ Effective Apr 15 · Global gold ~$4,725/oz (Apr 24)
Week in Review — DSEX Apr 20–23
Mon Apr 20 · 5,247 ▼−15
Tue Apr 21 · 5,232 ▼−15
Wed Apr 22 · 5,257 ▲+25
Thu Apr 23 · 5,299 ▲+41
Fri Apr 24 · Closed
Global Signal
Week-End Wrap — What Reaches Dhaka This Morning
| Brent Crude (Apr 24 close) | ~$105.33/bbl ▲ Up ~18% for the week · Range: $90–$107 in April alone — the most volatile month since 2020 |
| WTI Crude (Apr 24 close) | ~$94.40/bbl ▲ Year-to-date +65% · Brent YTD +73% |
| Strait of Hormuz / Iran–US | US–Iran direct talks in Pakistan confirmed Saturday (Witkoff + Kushner travel to Islamabad; Iran FM Araghchi also heading there). First direct high-level talks since war began. Ceasefire: holding. Strait: still closed. Commonwealth Bank of Australia: "US will be first to back down given mounting costs." |
| IEA Head — Fatih Birol | "We are facing the biggest energy security threat in history" — told CNBC Thursday. About 20M bpd flowed through Hormuz before the war. None now. |
| Israel–Lebanon | Ceasefire extended 3 weeks (Trump announced Thu) — leaders to meet in Washington soon. Regional de-escalation on this front. |
| Wall St (Apr 24 close) | S&P 500 +0.80% → 7,165 ▲ New ATH · Nasdaq +1.63% → 24,837 ▲ New ATH · Dow −0.16% → 49,231 · Intel +23.6%, AMD +13.9% on earnings · Semis: 18-day winning streak · Nvidia reclaims $5 trillion market cap |
| US Consumer Sentiment | University of Michigan: 49.8 final April reading — lowest on record, below 2008 financial crisis, COVID, and the 2022 inflation spike. Down 6.6% from March. |
| US Fed / DOJ | DOJ dropped investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell Friday. Kevin Warsh confirmation now more likely. Markets read: rates held at 3.50–3.75% through 2026. |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% ▼ Deal intact |
| India–BD / Joyjatra | FM Khalilur Delhi visit ongoing · MV Banglar Joyjatra still trapped — Day 85 · BD sourcing from 9 countries; Eastern Refinery shut |
| US–China Trade | ~45% US tariffs on China unchanged; no breakthrough |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
Week In Review
This was one of the most significant AI weeks of the year. OpenAI shipped GPT-5.5 (Thursday) — the first flagship model positioned primarily as an agent runtime, not a chat model. The same week, OpenAI launched ChatGPT Workspace Agents — cloud-running, team-shareable agents that handle complex workflows in ChatGPT and Slack, free until May 6. Meanwhile, Intel's Friday earnings included a surprise disclosure that Tesla CEO Elon Musk signalled ~$3 billion in potential Intel chip contracts, sending Intel up 23.6% and confirming that AI-driven hardware demand is still accelerating, not slowing. The signal for Dhaka professionals entering next week: the AI tooling stack just moved significantly. If your team is still using AI as an individual chatbot, you are one product cycle behind where enterprise workflows are going. The question now is not whether to adopt AI tools — it is which workflows to automate first.
openai.com · cnbc · yahoo finance · thestreet · april 22–24, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
This week Bangladesh learned that Western buyers will cut garment orders by 8–10%. That truck fares between Dhaka and Chattogram are up 32%. That the government printed Tk 20,000 crore in March alone. That Q2 GDP growth slowed to 3.03%. And that US consumer sentiment just hit its lowest recorded level — lower than the 2008 crash, lower than COVID. On Friday, Wall Street hit an all-time high. Nvidia is worth $5 trillion. The AI chip index is on an 18-day winning streak. Both of these things are simultaneously true. The global economy is not one thing. It is a story with several competing chapters being written at the same time. Bangladesh's chapter this week was difficult. It matters that you know exactly which chapter you are in — and which ones are upstream of you.
— Founder · Saturday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
FRIDAY, 24 APRIL 2026
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Under 300 words
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Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
Government borrowed Tk 20,000 crore in March alone — economists warn inflation reversal is coming
The single most important domestic economic disclosure of this week came on Thursday from a PRI seminar in Banani. Ashikur Rahman, Chief Economist at the Policy Research Institute, revealed that the government borrowed nearly Tk 20,000 crore from Bangladesh Bank in March alone — effectively printing money to cover the budget deficit and subsidies. "This is fresh money being injected into the economy. Its direct impact will be felt by the common people through rising inflation," he said. The disclosure matters because the headline inflation number for March looked encouraging — 8.71%, down from February's 9.13%. But Rahman's warning is that this reprieve is temporary: the fuel price hike of April 18, the bus fare revision, coal and gas payments, and now this monetary expansion are all flowing through the system simultaneously. A separate fiscal update to parliament on Wednesday from Finance Minister Khosru confirmed that revenue collection has consistently fallen short of monthly targets — Tk 40,000 crore collected vs Tk 75,000 crore needed per month. That gap is being bridged by printing. The April inflation reading, due in early May, will be the real test.
Bus fares revised — 11 paisa/km settled, transport owners unsatisfied
Thursday's long-awaited decision: bus fares in Dhaka and Chattogram rose from Tk 2.42 to Tk 2.53/km; long-distance from Tk 2.12 to Tk 2.23/km; DTCA area from Tk 2.32 to Tk 2.43/km. Minimum fares (Tk 10 city, Tk 8 outside) unchanged. Applies only to diesel-run buses; CNG buses unchanged. Transport owners had demanded 28 paisa and cited the dollar at Tk 126 vs Tk 84 when fares were last set in 2022. The minister called it an "adjustment, not a hike." Future revisions will now follow an automatic fuel-linked formula.
Finance Minister: trillion-dollar economy by 2034 — but revenue misses and energy shocks raise doubt
Speaking in parliament Wednesday, Finance Minister Khosru reaffirmed the government's trillion-dollar-by-2034 target and cited Q2 revenue growth of 13.6%. But the full picture is harder: monthly tax collection is running at barely half the required pace, the budget deficit is widening, and the Middle East crisis is adding both energy and inflation pressure. ADB has warned prolonged conflict could cut South Asian growth by 1 percentage point. The next budget, expected June, will be the first real test of whether ambition is matched by fiscal discipline.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.70 ৳
Stable · Interbank unchanged (Trading Economics, Apr 21–23)
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~18.17 ৳
▲ Near 52-week high · EBL bank rate
DSEX (close, Apr 23)
5,298.59 pts
▲ +0.004 pts (+0.00008%) · Effectively flat · Market holding breath
Inflation (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Eased in Mar · PRI warns printing reversal by Apr/May
New Bus Fare (Dhaka)
2.53 ৳/km
▲ From 2.42 · Effective Apr 23 · Long-distance: 2.23 ৳/km
Govt BD Bank Borrowing
~20,000 Cr ৳
▲ March alone · PRI: "Fresh money = inflation risk"
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Gold 22K / Bhori (BAJUS)
2,50,193 ৳
▲ Effective Apr 15 · Global gold near $4,730/oz
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (Apr 23 close) | ~$105.07/bbl ▲ +3.1% · Hit $107 intraday after Iran's top negotiator resigned from US talks |
| WTI Crude (Apr 23 close) | ~$96.50/bbl ▲ Nearly +4% · US military seized another tanker Thursday (MV Majestic X) |
| Strait of Hormuz | Iran: collecting $1M+ tolls on non-hostile vessels; first toll revenue received per Iran state media. US seized MV Majestic X Thursday. Iran's IRGC captured 2 ships Wed. Strait: effectively closed. Trump: "shoot and kill" Iranian boats deploying mines. |
| Iran–US War Status | Iran's parliament speaker & chief negotiator Ghalibaf resigned from the US talks team Thursday — sent Brent above $107. Ceasefire: indefinitely extended but no talks in sight. Trump: "No deadline." Iran: talks are "waste of time." |
| Wall St (Apr 23 close) | S&P 500 −0.41% → 7,108 · Dow −0.36% → 49,310 · Nasdaq −0.89% → 24,439 · IBM −8%, ServiceNow −18%, Tesla −3.6% after earnings. Oil + software rout. |
| Airlines | American Airlines cut full-year 2026 forecast citing rising fuel costs from Iran war. American Express beat Q1 estimates; raised guidance. |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% · Kevin Warsh confirmation ongoing — hawkish signals; rate cuts pushed further out |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% ▼ Deal intact |
| Goldman / Trafigura | Brent 2026 avg $85 (base); Trafigura: "already lost 1bn barrels — even if resolved tomorrow"; IEA: 2 yrs to restore supply post-conflict |
| India–BD Relation | FM Khalilur visiting Delhi; Joyjatra still stranded Day 84; BD sourcing from 9 countries; Eastern Refinery shut |
| US–China Trade | ~45% US tariffs on China unchanged; no deal progress |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
OpenAI launched ChatGPT Workspace Agents on Wednesday and shipped GPT-5.5 on Thursday — both in the same week. The practical difference: Workspace Agents let teams build shared, cloud-running agents that handle complex workflows autonomously inside ChatGPT and Slack — think a weekly reporting agent that pulls data, writes narrative, and delivers to your inbox without you touching it. Free until May 6; then credit-based for Business and Enterprise plans. GPT-5.5 is explicitly positioned as an agent runtime, not a chat model — OpenAI is selling task completion, not answers. For a Dhaka professional, the most immediate practical shift is this: AI tools are no longer just for solo productivity. They are becoming team infrastructure. Any organisation still treating AI as an individual tool is already a generation behind the product roadmap. The question is no longer "do we use AI" — it is "what does our team's AI-powered workflow actually look like."
openai.com · 9to5mac · roborhythms · april 22–23, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
The DSEX moved 0.004 points yesterday. Not 0.4% — 0.004 points. The entire market essentially stood still. Meanwhile, Brent hit $107, Iran's chief negotiator resigned from the talks, Wall Street's software sector got hit hard, and PRI disclosed that the government printed Tk 20,000 crore last month to stay solvent. In a week this loud, a market that goes nowhere is not calm — it is paralysed. Paralysis in capital markets is how investors say: "we don't know what to price anything at." That uncertainty is not a passing mood. It is the correct read of where Bangladesh — and the world — actually is right now on a Friday morning.
— Founder · Friday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
THURSDAY, 23 APRIL 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
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Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
Power crisis deepens — 63 plants offline, Adani unit down, summer shortfall now over 2,300 MW
Bangladesh's electricity system hit its worst point of the season on Wednesday. A total of 63 power plants — large and small — are currently shut down due to gas and fuel shortages, with a combined capacity of roughly 7,000 MW offline. The timing is particularly damaging: peak demand in April hits 15,200–15,450 MW, but actual generation has dropped to around 13,112 MW — a shortfall exceeding 2,300 MW. At 1 AM on April 22, a technical fault knocked out Unit-1 of India's Adani Power plant, cutting imports from ~1,500 MW to just 764 MW overnight. Bangladesh has been paying Adani $18M/week while the charge is $22M+; the payment gap is structural, not a one-off. In Chattogram, the 1,320 MW Patuakhali coal plant is shut due to coal shortages; Indonesia has curtailed exports over the Middle East conflict. REB load-shedding data in some rural districts now exceeds official PGCB figures by 1,000 MW. Bus fares are pending today — the Road Transport Minister announced a decision is expected Thursday (today).
DSEX climbs second consecutive session — up +0.78% on Wall St records and ceasefire relief
Dhaka's stock index closed Wednesday at 5,298.58, up 41.17 points (+0.783%) — the second straight session of gains. The rally follows Wall Street hitting fresh all-time highs on Wednesday after Trump extended the Iran ceasefire indefinitely. Investors in Dhaka appear to be tracking the same relief signal. The DSEX has now recovered about 66 points from its recent low of 5,232 on April 20. Whether this holds depends heavily on today's power and fare developments.
Bangladesh FM visits Delhi — energy and trade on the table
Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman left for a three-nation tour, with Delhi being a key stop. Energy cooperation — particularly the ongoing diesel supply arrangement and the Adani power situation — is expected to feature prominently. Bangladesh has been sourcing energy from nine countries since the Hormuz crisis began; India remains the most critical bilateral partner in this effort.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.70 ৳
Stable · Interbank rate unchanged (Trading Economics, Apr 21–22)
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~18.17 ৳
▲ Near 52-week high · EBL rate
DSEX (close, Apr 22)
5,298.58 pts
▲ +41.17 pts (+0.783%) · 2nd session of gains
Inflation (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Mar eased · Fuel hike may push above 9% in Apr
Diesel / Octane / Petrol
115 / 140 / 135 ৳/L
▲ Effective Apr 18 · Bus fare decision expected today
Power Deficit (Apr 22)
2,338 MW
▲ 63 plants offline · Peak demand 15,450 MW unmet
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Gold 22K / Bhori (BAJUS)
2,50,193 ৳
▲ Effective Apr 15 · Global gold ~$4,830/oz
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (Apr 22 close) | ~$101.91/bbl ▲ +3.5% · Briefly above $101 after Iran seized 2 ships in Hormuz; ceasefire extended but strait still effectively closed |
| WTI Crude (Apr 22 close) | ~$92.96/bbl ▲ +3.2% · ING estimates 13M bpd supply disrupted; 4–5M bpd demand destruction |
| Strait of Hormuz | Iran's IRGC seized two container ships Wednesday crossing "without authorisation." Ceasefire extended indefinitely by Trump but Hormuz remains closed. Iran: will not reopen while US Navy intercepts vessels. |
| Iran–US War Status | Ceasefire: Extended indefinitely (Trump, Tue post-market). Vance trip to Pakistan cancelled after Iran declined. Tehran calls US talks "waste of time." Iran parliament drafting $1M+ toll law for non-hostile ships. |
| Wall St (Apr 22 close) | S&P 500 +1.05% → 7,138 ▲ All-time high · Nasdaq +1.64% → 24,658 ▲ ATH · Dow +0.69% → 49,490 · Ceasefire extension + earnings rally |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% · New chair nominee Kevin Warsh signalled "different inflation framework" at confirmation — rate cuts further delayed |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% ▼ Deal intact · BD-US wheat deal active |
| Goldman Sachs | Brent 2026 avg $85; $71 Q4 base case if Hormuz opens; Rystad: $100 oil unlocks 2.1M bpd new supply |
| IEA / Trafigura | Trafigura: "Already lost 1 billion barrels — even if resolved tomorrow." IEA: up to 2 years to restore supply even post-conflict |
| India–BD Relation | FM visiting Delhi; diesel supply ongoing; BD FM raised Joyjatra passage with Iran at Antalya Forum — ship still stranded in Persian Gulf, Day 82 |
| US–China Trade | ~45% US tariffs on China unchanged; Chinese exports rerouting; tensions unresolved |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
Meta is cutting 8,000 jobs in May — about 10% of its workforce — while committing $135 billion to AI in 2026. The same week, Snap cut 1,000 roles citing AI efficiency. Google disclosed that 75% of its new internal code is now AI-generated, reviewed by engineers. The practical message for Dhaka professionals is not that AI is taking all jobs — it is that AI is specifically and measurably replacing entry-level and repetitive knowledge work first. The Stanford AI Index shows employment among software developers aged 22–25 has dropped nearly 20% since 2024. The professionals keeping their roles are those who combine AI tools with judgment that AI cannot replicate: client relationships, contextual reasoning, and domain-specific decisions. In Bangladesh, where the services sector employs millions and the economy is actively competing for a knowledge-worker future, this transition is not abstract. It is already underway.
reuters · stanford hai 2026 AI index · google cloud next · april 17–22, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
63 power plants are offline. The Adani unit failed at 1 AM. The DSEX is up for two days in a row because Wall Street hit an all-time high and Trump extended a ceasefire. These two things are happening simultaneously: the fundamentals of Bangladesh's energy infrastructure are visibly cracking, and the financial markets are in a mood to look past it. I am not sure which is the stranger fact. What I do know is that no ceasefire extension changes the coal shortages in Patuakhali, or the gas shortfall in Petrobangla, or the arrears owed to Adani. The geopolitical story can improve; the structural story requires something more patient than a Trump post.
— Founder · Thursday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
WEDNESDAY, 22 APRIL 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
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Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
Fuel price shock hits Dhaka — diesel up 15%, bus fares in chaos, farms and factories squeezed
This is the most direct domestic cost story of the week. On Saturday night (April 18), the government raised fuel prices sharply: diesel to Tk 115/litre (from Tk 100, +15%), octane to Tk 140 (from Tk 120, +17%), petrol to Tk 135 (from Tk 116, +16%), and kerosene to Tk 130 (from Tk 112, +16%). This is the government's admission that it can no longer absorb global energy costs — and it will now pass them to citizens. The BRTA has sent a fare revision proposal to the ministry, recommending Tk 0.22/km increase; transport owners are demanding Tk 4/km in cities — a potential 64% hike on current regulated rates. Bus operators have been officially told not to raise fares until the government rules, but passengers reported arbitrary surcharges from Monday. In Chattogram, inland container depots have already raised handling charges 8.5%. BGMEA warns production costs will rise further as factories burn more diesel through daily load shedding that now exceeds 2,000 MW. Economists say the inflationary ripple — through transport, farming, and industry — will push measured inflation above 9% again within weeks.
DSEX recovers — market up +0.48% on Tuesday as ceasefire extended indefinitely
After five consecutive sessions of decline, Dhaka's stock market closed up 24.92 points (+0.476%) at 5,257.41 on Tuesday. The bounce came after Trump announced an indefinite extension of the US-Iran ceasefire just after Wall Street closed — awaiting Iran's "unified proposal." Investors read this as war risk temporarily off the table; energy stocks and import-dependent sectors reacted first. The DSEX had shed roughly 40 points across the prior five sessions.
Budget talks heat up — businesses demand relief as energy shock deepens fiscal stress
With the FY2026-27 budget expected in the first week of June, trade bodies across industries — garments, cement, transport — are converging on a single message: do not add fiscal pressure on top of the energy shock. Finance Minister Amir Khasru faces a difficult equation: rising energy subsidies, falling revenue collection (tax-to-GDP below 7%), and a banking sector generating fresh risks through the Bank Resolution Act. The budget's growth arithmetic depends heavily on whether the Hormuz situation normalises in the next 6–8 weeks.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.70 ৳
▲ EBL spot selling 123.20 (Apr 20) · Interbank stable
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~18.17 ৳
▲ EBL rate Apr 20 · Near 52-wk high
DSEX (close, Apr 21)
5,257.41 pts
▲ +24.92 pts (+0.476%) · Ceasefire extended
Inflation (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Eased in Mar · Fuel hike may push above 9% again
Diesel / Octane / Petrol
115 / 140 / 135 ৳/L
▲ New prices effective Apr 18 · +15–20 ৳/litre
Bad Loans (NPL)
36%
▲ 25-year high · Bank Resolution Act now in force
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Gold 22K / Bhori (BAJUS)
2,50,193 ৳
▲ Effective Apr 15 · Global gold ~$4,830/oz
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (Apr 21 settle) | ~$98.48/bbl ▲ +3% on Tue; briefly touched $101.15 intraday before retreating on ceasefire extension news |
| WTI Crude (Apr 21 settle) | ~$92.13/bbl ▲ +2.8% · Both benchmarks up ~5% over Mon-Tue combined |
| Iran–US War / Ceasefire | Ceasefire extended indefinitely by Trump post-market Tue — awaiting Iran's "unified proposal." Only 3 ships crossed Hormuz in 24 hrs; ~20,000 mariners & 2,000 ships still stranded in Gulf per IMO. Talks paused; no Pakistan trip yet for Vance. |
| Strait of Hormuz | Effectively closed — traffic near standstill. Iran parliament planning law to charge toll of $1M+/ship for non-hostile vessels. Trafigura: "Already lost 1 billion barrels even if resolved tomorrow." |
| Wall St (Apr 21 close) | S&P 500 −0.63% → 7,064 · Dow −0.59% → 49,149 · Nasdaq −0.59% → 24,260 · Stocks fell on Iran uncertainty; UnitedHealth +7% on earnings beat |
| US Fed Chair (New) | Kevin Warsh confirmation hearing on Tue — signalled "different inflation framework"; hawkish tilt noted; markets read as rate cuts delayed further |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% Held · Cut prospects further dimming with energy-driven inflation |
| Goldman Sachs | Brent 2026 avg $85; $71 Q4 if Hormuz opens; Rystad says $100 oil could unlock 2.1M bpd new South American supply |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% ▼ Deal intact · BD-US wheat deal active |
| US–China Trade | US tariffs ~45% on China; Chinese exports rerouting; tensions unresolved |
| India–BD Relation | India continuing diesel supply via pipeline; BD sourcing from 9 countries; Eastern Refinery still shut — no crude before May |
| IEA Warning | Restoring disrupted oil & gas output could take up to 2 years even after conflict ends |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
Amazon just committed $25 billion to Anthropic — on top of the $8 billion already invested — as part of a deal that ties Anthropic to spending $100 billion on AWS over the next decade. Anthropic will get 5 gigawatts of custom Trainium chip capacity to power Claude. The deal was confirmed Monday (April 21); Amazon shares rose 2% in premarket. The practical translation: Claude's infrastructure is now among the most heavily resourced AI systems on earth, which means capacity constraints that slowed enterprise access earlier this year will ease significantly by late 2026. For Dhaka professionals already using Claude for research, document analysis, or writing — your tool just got a significantly larger infrastructure backstop. The broader signal: the AI infrastructure race is not slowing down. Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are all committing hundreds of billions to AI compute. The professional who ignores this shift for another two years will find themselves significantly behind the ones who didn't.
cnbc · anthropic.com · motley fool · april 21, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Diesel is now Tk 115. Bus operators want Tk 4 per kilometre. Container depots in Chattogram have already moved. This is how inflation actually travels — not in the BBS report, but in the morning commute, in the vegetable truck that now costs more to run, in the generator that keeps the factory floor lit during load shedding. The government raised fuel prices and said it had no choice. That is probably true. But "no choice" is itself the result of twenty years of choices — about energy sourcing, about reserve planning, about strategic fuel stockpiling. This Wednesday morning, every person commuting from Mirpur to Motijheel is paying for those choices too.
— Founder · Wednesday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
TUESDAY, 21 APRIL 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
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Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
MV Banglar Joyjatra: Bangladesh's ship is still trapped — and it is now a diplomatic story
Bangladesh's state-owned vessel MV Banglar Joyjatra has now failed to cross the Strait of Hormuz three times. On Friday night, after Iran declared the strait "open," the BSC ship lifted anchor from Sharjah. At 12:30 AM, Iranian naval authorities radioed all vessels to stop and return — no IRGC clearance had been given. The ship turned back for the third time; its 31 Bangladeshi crew members remain stranded in the Persian Gulf. By Monday, Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman raised the matter directly with Iran's Deputy FM Saeed Khatibzadeh at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in Türkiye. Iran's envoy assured that "directives had been given" to relevant authorities — but the ship has still not moved. The vessel carries 37,000 tonnes of fertiliser for South Africa. It entered the Gulf on February 2 and has been unable to leave for nearly 80 days. This is the most concrete, human story of what the Hormuz conflict means for Bangladesh: our ship is physically locked inside.
RMG sector losing 20–30% production capacity as energy crisis bites
Bangladesh's garment factories — the country's only meaningful export engine — are now running at 70–80% of capacity due to daily load shedding of 2–3 hours. BKMEA President Hatem says production capacity is down 20–25%; DCCI's roundtable heard estimates as high as 50%. Every $10 rise in global oil adds $1 billion to Bangladesh's annual import bill. Airlines including Emirates and Qatar have cancelled freight flights over Bangladesh and India, leaving Zara/Inditex and other brand shipments stranded at airports. With the Iran ceasefire expiring today, the energy outlook for this week is the most uncertain it has been in months.
Businesses urge growth-oriented budget ahead of FY2026-27
As the government prepares Bangladesh's first BNP-era budget — targeted at nearly Tk 9,00,000 crore — trade bodies gathered yesterday to urge Finance Minister Amir Khasru to prioritise investment and avoid what they called "punitive" measures. Private sector credit growth hit a historic low of 6% in January. Economists warn the energy shock could make fiscal discipline nearly impossible if oil stays above $95.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
123.26 ৳
▲ Near 52-week high · Taka weakens on Iran tensions
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~18.00 ৳
▲ Near 52-week high of 18.06 (Apr 20)
DSEX (close, Apr 20)
5,232.49 pts
▼ 15.05 pts (−0.287%) · 5th session of decline
Inflation (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Eased from Feb's 9.13% · War risk may reverse
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
36%
▲ 25-year high · Bank Resolution Act in force
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
Gold 22K / Bhori (BAJUS)
2,50,193 ৳
▲ Effective Apr 15 · Global gold near $4,830/oz
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (Apr 20 close) | ~$95.48/bbl ▲ +5.6% on Mon after US seized Iranian ship; earlier hit $95.42 intraday |
| WTI Crude (Apr 20 close) | ~$89.61/bbl ▲ +6.8% on Mon · Reversal of Friday's 12% plunge |
| Strait of Hormuz | Effectively closed again. US Navy fired on & seized Iranian cargo vessel TOUSKA on Apr 19. Iran vowed retaliation. Ceasefire expires TODAY (Apr 21). Trump: "No more Mr. Nice Guy" if no deal. |
| Iran–US War Status | Ceasefire deadline: Today. Iran signals willingness for 2nd round in Islamabad this week. Trump says "lots of bombs" if no deal. US delegation heading to Pakistan Monday. High-wire moment. |
| Israel–Lebanon | 10-day ceasefire confirmed; holding so far — partial de-escalation on one front |
| Wall St (Apr 20 close) | S&P 500 −0.24% → 7,109 · Dow −0.01% → 49,443 · Nasdaq −0.26% → 24,404 · Nasdaq snapped 13-day winning streak |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% Held · Rate cut prospects dimming as energy inflation persists |
| Goldman Sachs | Brent 2026 avg held at $85; $71 Q4 base if Hormuz fully opens; warns of recession risk if war escalates post-ceasefire |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% ▼ Deal intact · BD-US wheat deal signed |
| US–China Trade | US tariffs ~45% on China; Chinese exports rerouting; US-China tensions unresolved |
| IEA Warning | Restoring disrupted oil & gas output could take up to 2 years even after conflict ends |
| India–BD Relation | India supplying diesel via pipeline & sea; BD sourcing from 9 countries; Eastern Refinery still shut — no crude before May |
| RMG Export / Air Freight | Emirates & Qatar Airways cancelled BD/India freight flights; Zara/Inditex shipments stranded at airports — new export risk layer |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
The performance gap between the top AI models has nearly closed in 2026 — Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI trade places on benchmarks weekly. What that means practically: model choice now comes down to your workflow, not raw power. For anyone dealing with large documents — contracts, reports, data across many files — Claude 4.6's 1-million-token context window is the clearest advantage. For anyone living inside Google Workspace, Gemini 3.1 Pro is now embedded across Docs, Sheets, and Gmail, with a 70% success rate on complex spreadsheet generation from plain-language prompts. The practical rule for a Dhaka professional: stop picking by brand, start picking by fit. One model used daily on real work will outperform five models used occasionally for demos.
stanford hai 2026 AI index · MIT technology review · howdoiuseai.com · april 13–20, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Today the Iran ceasefire expires. As I write this, nobody knows whether it gets extended, breaks down, or something in between. MV Banglar Joyjatra has been trapped inside the Strait for 80 days. Our RMG factories are running at 70% capacity. The DSEX has slid five sessions straight. And yet the national conversation this week was also about a budget, a Bank Resolution Act, and whether the BNP government can deliver on economic reform. All of it at once. The thing about Dhaka's professionals — the ones this digest is for — is that they have always had to hold both timescales in their head simultaneously: the long structural story and the news breaking by 8 AM. That is not a burden. That is the skill.
— Founder · Tuesday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
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MONDAY, 20 APRIL 2026
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Bangladesh Business & Economy
Bangladesh's banking reform walks back — Bank Resolution Act lets looters buy their banks back
This is the single most consequential domestic financial story of the month. Parliament passed the Bank Resolution Act, 2026 on April 10 by voice vote — and tucked inside it is Section 18A, a provision that allows the former owners of five scandal-ridden Shariah banks to reclaim their institutions for just 7.5% upfront of the government bailout funds, with the remaining 92.5% repayable over two years at 10% interest. The state and Bangladesh Bank had together injected Tk 35,000 crore into Sammilito Islami Bank — created by merging First Security Islami, Social Islami, Union, Global Islami, and Exim Bank. Groups like S Alam and Nassa could now return. TIB called it "rehabilitation of bank looters." Former World Bank economist Zahid Hussain warned it "reinforces a culture of impunity." Bangladesh Bank officials privately opposed the clause. The interim government had explicitly barred previous owners from ever returning — the BNP government has now reversed that. For anyone who believed Bangladesh was finally cleaning up its banking sector after years of insider lending and political capture, this week is a cold Monday morning.
US-Iran ceasefire holds — Hormuz declared "open," oil drops sharply — Bangladesh watching closely
Friday's single biggest global development with direct Bangladesh consequences: Iran's Foreign Minister declared the Strait of Hormuz "completely open" to commercial traffic, triggering a 10–12% oil price crash. Brent fell to ~$90 and WTI to ~$84 by end of week. Over the weekend, Trump seized an Iranian-flagged ship, and Hormuz vessel traffic remains restricted — the ceasefire is fragile, not over. For Bangladesh, Eastern Refinery remains shut; no crude is expected before May. But if the Hormuz situation holds, import cost relief could start flowing through freight and energy pricing in 4–6 weeks.
IMF to release $1.3B to Bangladesh after reform breakthrough
The IMF is set to release USD 1.3 billion to Bangladesh following progress on its reform programme. The disbursement comes even as the IMF's April World Economic Outlook kept Bangladesh's GDP growth forecast unchanged at 4.7% for FY26, while raising inflation projections to 9.2%. The World Bank remains more cautious at 3.9%, and ADB at 4.0%. Economists note the wide spread reflects deep uncertainty about energy shock duration.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.70 ৳
▲ Range: 122.70–123.17 in Apr · 52-wk high 123.40
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~18.04 ৳
▲ Near 52-week high of 18.06 (Apr 18)
DSEX (last close, Apr 19)
5,247 pts
▼ 9.30 pts (−0.18%) · War-driven pressure
Inflation (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Eased slightly · IMF projects 9.2% FY26
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
36%
▲ 25-year high · Bank reform now in doubt
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
Gold 22K / Bhori (BAJUS)
2,50,193 ৳
▲ +2,216 ৳ · Effective Apr 15, 2026
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (17 Apr close) | ~$90.38/bbl ▼ −9% after Hormuz "reopened"; rebounded ~$95–96 by Sat as Iran re-restricted access |
| WTI Crude (17 Apr close) | ~$83.85/bbl ▼ −12% on ceasefire hopes; Sunday futures dropped again on new seizure |
| Strait of Hormuz | Iran declared "completely open" Apr 17, but by weekend traffic restricted again — US seized Iranian-flagged vessel Sunday; ceasefire holds 9 sessions so far; extremely volatile |
| Iran–US War Status | Two-week ceasefire (from Apr 8) technically expires tomorrow, Apr 21; Trump says deal "very close"; Iran has not confirmed terms; talks ongoing via Pakistan |
| Israel–Lebanon | 10-day ceasefire confirmed by Netanyahu; separately confirmed by Iran's FM — regional de-escalation signal |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% Held · 1 cut signalled for late 2026 |
| Wall St (17 Apr close) | S&P 500 +1.20% → 7,126 · Dow +1.79% → 49,447 · Nasdaq +1.52% → 24,468 · Sunday futures fell 0.8–0.9% on Iran ship seizure |
| US–China Trade | US tariffs on China remain ~45%; Chinese exports rerouting; US-China tariff tensions unresolved |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% ▼ Deal intact · BD-US wheat deal signed to ease tariff pressure |
| Goldman Sachs | Brent 2026 average held at $85; $71 Q4 base case if Hormuz stays open; recession risk easing if war ends |
| IEA Warning | Restoring disrupted oil & gas output could take up to 2 years even after conflict ends — per IMF Executive Director Fatih Birol |
| Saudi Arabia | East-West pipeline restored; ~600k bpd production still offline from attack damage |
| India–BD Relation | India supplying ~22,000 tonnes diesel to BD via pipeline & sea; additional shipments pending as BD sources fuel from 9 countries |
| US CPI (latest) | Elevated — war-driven energy costs keeping inflation sticky; Fed holding rates through mid-2026 |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
McKinsey is now testing whether job candidates can work with AI — not just tolerate it. Their final-round interview now includes a live session with Lilli, the firm's internal AI, where candidates must prompt it, challenge its output, and reach a structured recommendation. The evaluation focuses on judgment and skepticism, not technical skill. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that entry-level consulting roles are quietly shrinking — McKinsey shrank its workforce by 10%+ between 2023–2024. The practical takeaway for any Dhaka professional: AI fluency is no longer optional in competitive hiring. The bar is not "can you use ChatGPT" — it is "can you apply professional judgment to AI output under pressure." That is a skill you can practise today, with any AI tool, on any real business problem you already face.
bloomberg · financial times · fortune · mckinsey / april 14–17, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
The Bank Resolution Act passed on a Friday. Parliament approved it by voice vote — no roll call, no accountability trail. The same week, Iran briefly opened the Strait of Hormuz and oil dropped 12% in a single session, then tightened again by Sunday. Two entirely separate stories, but the same underlying pattern: Bangladesh absorbs external shocks with fragile institutions, and then — quietly, behind closed doors — dismantles the very reforms meant to strengthen those institutions. The banking sector's 36% NPL ratio did not appear overnight. It was built, loan by loan, by people who are now apparently being invited back. On a Monday morning in Dhaka, that is worth sitting with before you open your inbox.
— Founder · Monday morning · Dhaka
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SUNDAY, 19 APRIL 2026
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Under 300 words
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Bangladesh Business & Economy
Fuel prices jump from midnight — diesel Tk 115, octane Tk 140, effective today
The government issued a gazette notification on Saturday night, raising fuel prices across all categories effective 12:01am Sunday, April 19. Diesel rises from Tk 100 to Tk 115 per litre (+15%), octane from Tk 120 to Tk 140 (+17%), petrol from Tk 116 to Tk 135 (+16%), and kerosene from Tk 112 to Tk 130 (+16%). The Energy Division cited alignment with international market movements and the need to stabilise supply. The irony, noted immediately by opposition leaders including Jamaat-e-Islami chief Shafiqur Rahman, is that global oil prices fell sharply on Friday — Brent dropped 9% to ~$90 — on Hormuz reopening hopes. The government's defence: prices were set before that drop, and Thursday's Brent had touched $99. Transport, agriculture, and basic goods prices will feel this within days.
Iran fires on ships, closes Hormuz again — Friday's "open" declaration lasts less than 24 hours
Iran's IRGC reimposed "strict control" over the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday morning, reversing its own Foreign Minister's declaration the night before. Two Indian-flagged ships, including the VLCC Sanmar Herald, were fired upon by Iranian gunboats and forced to turn back. Bangladesh's own MV Banglar Joyjatra — which had entered the strait on Friday night expecting clearance — remains stranded, pending diplomatic intervention. The ceasefire deadline between the US and Iran expires April 21. No new talks are scheduled. The strait is, once again, closed.
Real estate defaults at 26.7% — sector contributes 8% of GDP, 3.5 million jobs at risk
A TBS investigation reveals that default loans in Bangladesh's real estate sector have hit 26.7% — nearly one in three taka lent. The crisis has multiple causes: a wave of booking cancellations after the political shift in August 2024, a 25% rise in construction material costs driven by global conflicts, and high interest rates. Steel manufacturers alone report Tk 3,500 crore in losses over the past three months. The sector supports over 250 linked industries, and nearly 90% of cement factories are currently operating below capacity or have suspended production.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.75 ৳
BB auction rate · Last set Apr 16
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~18.03 ৳
Mid-market · Apr 17 ref
DSEX (last close, 17 Apr)
5,256 pts
Weekend — no trading · Fuel hike hits Monday
Fuel Prices (new, from today)
Diesel Tk 115/L
▲ +Tk15 · Octane Tk140 · Petrol Tk135
Inflation (Feb '26, BBS)
9.13%
▲ Fuel hike will push this higher · Mar est: 8.71%
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৫০,১৯৩ ৳
Last revised Apr 15 · May drop on Hormuz news
Bad Loans (NPL)
36%
▲ 25-year high · Real estate NPL: 26.7%
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (18 Apr) | ~$94–96/bbl ▲ Rebounded from $90 after Iran reclosed Hormuz — 24hr swing of ~$6 |
| WTI Crude (18 Apr) | ~$89–92/bbl ▲ Recovering; fell to $85 on Fri, back up Sat as Hormuz closed again |
| Strait of Hormuz | CLOSED again · Iran IRGC reimposed "strict control" Sat morning · Fired on 2 Indian ships (Sanmar Herald) · US blockade of Iranian ports continues · No transit without IRGC authorisation |
| Iran War Status | US-Iran ceasefire expires Apr 21 · No new talks scheduled · Iran accuses US blockade of "piracy" · Pakistan FM says deal still possible before deadline |
| Wall St (17 Apr close) | S&P 500 +1.2% → 7,121 (record) · Dow +1.8% → ~49,334 · Nasdaq +1.5% → ~24,425 (13-day win streak, longest since 1992) · Week: S&P +4.5%, Nasdaq +6.84% |
| IEA Warning | Restoring disrupted Gulf oil output could take up to 2 years · War damage to energy infrastructure estimated at $58B |
| Goldman Sachs | Two-way risk on oil: peace deal is downside, failed talks is upside · Full-year Brent avg forecast $83/bbl |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% · Held · Oil volatility complicates rate-cut path for late 2026 |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% intact · US also granted BD 60-day waiver for Russian fuel imports (confirmed Apr 17) |
| Saudi Arabia | BD crude cargo loaded Apr 17–18 at Yanbu · Traveling Red Sea alt-route · ETA Chattogram May 2–3 |
| Israel–Lebanon | 10-day ceasefire holding · IDF maintaining "Yellow Line" positions in south Lebanon · Netanyahu invited to White House |
| Asian Markets | Japan Nikkei closed Fri –1.75% (profit-taking after record) · Markets will react to Hormuz re-closure on Mon open |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
MIT Technology Review named "vibe coding" one of its 2026 breakthroughs — the practice of describing what you want in plain language and letting AI tools like Claude Code, Cursor, or Replit Agent build it. For Dhaka's non-developer professionals, this matters: you no longer need to know how to code to build a working tool. A finance analyst can describe a custom dashboard. An HR manager can describe an applicant tracker. A logistics coordinator can describe a route optimiser. The barrier is now whether you can describe the problem clearly — not whether you can write the code. The practical action: pick one repetitive task in your work this week and try describing it to an AI coding tool. The result may surprise you.
MIT Technology Review · Cursor · Claude Code · April 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Fuel went up at midnight. The government set the price on Thursday when oil was near $99. By Friday night it was $90, and by the time the gazette was published Hormuz had reopened and closed again within the same 24 hours. So we woke up this morning paying Tk 15 more per litre of diesel — in a week when global oil fell the most in years. This is not mismanagement. It is the cost of being a price-taker in a world where the rules change faster than any gazette can be printed. The real question is not who made the decision. It is why, after everything this year, Bangladesh still has no buffer — no reserve, no hedge, no strategic fuel stock — that gives the government even one week of breathing room before it has to pass the shock straight to the street.
— Founder · Sunday morning · Dhaka
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SATURDAY, 18 APRIL 2026
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Bangladesh Business & Economy
IMF blocks Bangladesh's $1.3B tranche — reform failures cited at Spring Meetings
In the most significant economic news of the week, the IMF has told Bangladesh's delegation at the Washington Spring Meetings that the $1.3 billion tranche due in June will not be released as scheduled. Bangladesh still has $1.86 billion remaining under its $5.5 billion programme, which expires in early 2027. The fund cited stalled progress on four fronts: revenue reform, banking sector restructuring, withdrawal of fuel and electricity subsidies, and the shift to a genuine market-based exchange rate. IMF Asia-Pacific Director Krishna Srinivasan was direct: "We made the point that, with a new government holding a significant majority, this is the right time to undertake ambitious reforms." Bangladesh Bank Governor Mansur, also in Washington, pushed back — saying if IMF funds don't arrive, "it will not derail us." The standoff matters because IMF assessment signals also influence other development partners, at a moment when energy import bills are already rising.
First Hajj flight departs — PM Tarique inaugurates at midnight, 78,500 pilgrims to travel
Prime Minister Tarique Rahman inaugurated Bangladesh's 2026 Hajj season at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport just before midnight, boarding the first Biman flight (BG3001) carrying 418 pilgrims to Jeddah. A total of 207 pre-Hajj flights are scheduled through May 21. The government managed to reduce ticket costs by Tk 12,000 compared to last year, with PM Tarique promising further reductions in future seasons. Hajj is expected on May 26, subject to moon sighting.
Bangladesh vessel Joyjatra stopped again in Hormuz — despite Iran's "open" declaration
MV Banglar Joyjatra, the Bangladesh Shipping Corporation vessel that has been stranded in the Gulf since March, entered the Strait of Hormuz at 11:50pm Friday after Iran announced it was open — only to be stopped at 12:30am by IRGC radio warning that no ships could pass without explicit clearance. It is now anchored in the strait. The gap between Iran's political announcement and its navy's on-the-ground enforcement is the detail Bangladesh needs to watch, as our crude shipment also heads this way.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.75 ৳
BB auction rate · Last set Apr 16
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~18.03 ৳
▲ Mid-market · Apr 17
DSEX (last close, 17 Apr)
5,256 pts
Weekend — no trading today
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৫০,১৯৩ ৳
▲ Last revised 15 Apr · Hormuz open may lower
Inflation (Feb '26, BBS)
9.13%
▲ IMF FY26 est: 9.2% · Food: 9.30%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
36%
▲ 25-year high · IMF wants 10% target
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (17 Apr close) | ~$90.38/bbl ▼ Plunged 9% on Hormuz opening announcement |
| WTI Crude (17 Apr close) | ~$85.37/bbl ▼ Down nearly 10% — biggest single-day drop since pandemic |
| Strait of Hormuz | Iran FM declared "completely open" for duration of Israel-Lebanon ceasefire · BUT IRGC still stopping ships at midnight · US blockade of Iranian ports remains "in full force" per Trump |
| Iran War Status | Israel–Lebanon 10-day ceasefire began Thu 5pm ET · Trump says US-Iran deal possible "in next day or two" · War in 8th week; no signed agreement yet |
| Wall St (17 Apr close) | S&P 500 +1.2% → 7,121 (new record) · Dow +1.8% → 49,334 · Nasdaq +1.5% → 24,425 (13th win streak — longest since 1992) · Week: S&P +4.5%, Nasdaq +6.84% |
| IEA Warning | Global oil demand to fall in 2026 for first time since COVID · War damage to Gulf energy infrastructure may cost $58B to repair |
| Goldman Sachs | Two-way risk on oil now: Hormuz reopening is downside; US-Iran talks collapsing again is upside risk. Avg Brent forecast $83/bbl for full year |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% · Held · Oil drop eases inflation fears — rate cut probability rising slightly for late 2026 |
| US–China Trade | US tariffs on China ~45% · Ceasefire optimism lifted Asian markets; China CSI 300 flat Friday |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% Deal intact · US also granted BD 60-day waiver for Russian fuel imports |
| Saudi Arabia | Crude shipment loading today (Apr 17–18) at Yanbu — Bangladesh-bound via Red Sea alt-route · May 2–3 ETA Chattogram |
| India–BD Relation | Diesel supply continuing via pipeline; BD actively seeking diversification amid IMF standoff pressures |
| Israel–Lebanon | 10-day ceasefire holding · Netanyahu invited to White House · Trump: "first meaningful talks since 1983" |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
OpenAI's GPT-5.4 scored 75% on the OSWorld-V benchmark — which simulates real desktop tasks like navigating spreadsheets, writing emails, and managing files — just above the human baseline of 72.4%. This is not a theoretical result. It means an AI agent can now outperform the average knowledge worker on routine computer tasks. The practical takeaway for Bangladesh's professionals: the jobs most at risk are not the hardest ones — they are the repetitive ones that look ordinary. Data entry, document formatting, inbox triage, basic report generation. Automation is not coming for the expert; it is coming for the assistant. The question to ask about your role: which 30% of my day looks like an OSWorld task?
OpenAI · crescendo.ai · MIT Technology Review · April 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Two things happened Friday night that will shape Bangladesh's next few months. The IMF told us our reforms are not credible enough to release $1.3 billion. And Iran said the Strait is open — but then its navy stopped our ship inside it at 12:30am. Both of these things are about the gap between announcement and reality. The IMF says we announced reforms but didn't implement them. Iran announced Hormuz is open but didn't tell its navy. Bangladesh lives in that gap. This morning, as 418 of our people flew to Mecca, and oil fell 10%, and a ship waited in the dark between Sharjah and Oman — it felt like the whole country was mid-crossing. Waiting for clearance.
— Founder · Saturday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
FRIDAY, 17 APRIL 2026
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Bangladesh Business & Economy
Bangladesh Bank buys dollars again — record remittance is the story behind the story
After a six-week pause, Bangladesh Bank re-entered the market this week, buying $120 million in two days (Wed–Thu) from commercial banks at Tk 122.75 per dollar. The signal is not a currency crisis — it is the opposite. Remittances hit an all-time monthly record of $3.755 billion in March, and the first two weeks of April added another $1.6 billion, up 25% year-on-year. The central bank is absorbing the surplus to prevent the taka from appreciating too sharply and undermining export competitiveness. Total BB dollar purchases in FY2025–26 now stand at $5.61 billion — a remarkable turnaround from last year's reserve crunch. The macro optic has shifted: the vulnerability is no longer the currency. It is energy.
Crude shipment loading today in Saudi Arabia — ERL still running on deadstock
The Energy Division confirmed that a 100,000-tonne Arabian Light Crude cargo is scheduled to load on April 17–18 at Yanbu port, with arrival at Chattogram estimated by May 2–3 via a Red Sea alternative route that avoids the Strait of Hormuz. Eastern Refinery Limited is operating two of its four units on residual deadstock. Fuel stocks for petrol and octane are described as sufficient for the next two months, and a further 100,000-tonne Murban cargo from Saudi Aramco has been requested for May. The refinery contributes just 20% of national supply — but the wider signal remains: Bangladesh has been locked out of its primary crude source for nearly seven weeks.
WB and ADB cut Bangladesh growth forecasts — IMF holds at 4.7%
The World Bank has revised its Bangladesh GDP growth projection for FY26 downward, citing the Persian Gulf crisis and domestic vulnerabilities. The ADB's April 2026 Outlook now forecasts 4.0% growth for FY26 and per-capita growth of only 2.8% — below the IMF's unchanged 4.7% estimate. Inflation remains a concern across all forecasts, with the IMF projecting 9.2% for FY26. Bangladesh's actual FY25 growth came in at 3.49%, confirmed by BBS — the slowest in at least three years.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.75 ৳
BB auction rate · Apr 16
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~18.03 ৳
▲ Mid-market · Apr 16
DSEX (last close, 16 Apr)
5,256 pts
▲ +1.84 pts · +0.035% · War-era range
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৫০,১৯৩ ৳
▲ +Tk 2,216 · Updated 15 Apr
Inflation Rate (Feb '26, BBS)
9.13%
▲ 10-month high · IMF FY26 est: 9.2%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
36%
▲ 25-year high of total credit
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: ↓ revised · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (16 Apr) | ~$94–95/bbl ▲ Ceasefire extension talk eases peak; up from $72 pre-war |
| WTI Crude (16 Apr) | ~$93/bbl ▲ Blockade continues; ceasefire extension under discussion |
| Strait of Hormuz | Effectively closed · 7th week · US naval blockade of Iranian ports in force; 34,000+ ships rerouted since March |
| Iran War Status | US & Iran considering 2-week ceasefire extension for broader negotiations; Trump: "very close to over" · US Defence Sec: forces remain ready |
| IEA Warning | Global oil demand set to decline in 2026 for first time since COVID — conflict wiping out all demand growth |
| Goldman Sachs | Brent avg forecast $83/bbl for 2026; two-way risk — Hormuz closure upside vs. weaker demand downside |
| Wall St (16 Apr close) | S&P 500 +0.26% → 7,041 (record) · Dow +0.24% → 48,579 · Nasdaq +0.36% → 24,103 (12th win streak — longest since 2009) |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% Held · Fed watching oil-driven inflation; 1 cut in late 2026 possible |
| US–China Trade | US tariffs on China ~45%; Chinese exports rerouting; BD manufacturers watching for order diversion |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% Deal intact · No change this week |
| India–BD Relation | India supplying diesel via pipeline and sea; BD loading April crude shipment today via Red Sea alt-route |
| Asian Markets (17 Apr open) | Japan Nikkei +2.43%; S Korea Kospi +2.12% — tracking Wall St rally & Iran deal optimism |
| Israel–Lebanon | Trump confirmed direct talks with Lebanese president & Netanyahu — fragile parallel front to Iran ceasefire |
| US CPI | Elevated · Fed funds futures pricing year-end rate 3.50–3.75% range — inflation risk from Hormuz persists |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
McKinsey has started testing job applicants with AI — not just asking if they use it. Candidates in final-round interviews must now solve business cases alongside the firm's internal AI tool "Lilli," with evaluators scoring their judgment and reasoning while working with the machine. The firm's CEO confirmed it runs a virtual workforce of 20,000 AI agents alongside 40,000 human employees. The practical signal for Dhaka's professionals: AI fluency is no longer a bonus — it is beginning to show up as a hiring filter at the world's most competitive firms. If you cannot articulate how you use AI in your actual work, that gap is visible to employers now.
McKinsey · MIT Technology Review · April 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
The Bangladesh Bank is buying dollars — not because the taka is weak, but because remittances are flooding in faster than the market can absorb. That is the strangest sentence I have written this year. A country dealing with 9% inflation, 36% bad loans, and a shut refinery is simultaneously receiving record dollar inflows. We are fragile and resilient in the same breath. The crude shipment loads today. The ceasefire talks continue. Wall Street hit a record last night. And somewhere in Chattogram, a refinery is running on fumes, waiting. This Friday morning has the texture of a pause before something shifts.
— Founder · Friday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
THURSDAY, 16 APRIL 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Free forever
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
PM Tarique asks global partners for $2 billion — and Bangladesh's urea crisis moves to the front
At a global energy summit on Wednesday, PM Tarique Rahman warned that the current energy shock could surpass the 1970s oil crisis and called on development partners to mobilise an emergency $2 billion fund for Bangladesh's immediate energy needs. Separately, the fertiliser crisis has sharpened: two BCIC tenders for 200,000 tonnes of urea failed to attract any bidders. A third tender closed Thursday. Saudi Arabia has agreed to supply 40,000 tonnes but cannot ship through Hormuz — Bangladesh is now asking it to route cargo around the strait. Urea prices have surged past $800 per tonne (from under $490 pre-war). With 5 of 6 state fertiliser factories offline due to gas shortages, and the Aman paddy season starting in June, the window to secure supply is narrowing fast.
Fuel stocks stabilise slightly — but the refinery stays dark until May
The Energy Division reported Wednesday that two diesel ships (68,000 tonnes) docked at Chattogram on Tuesday along with a jet fuel vessel (12,000 tonnes). Current national diesel stock stands at 101,385 tonnes — enough for roughly 9 days at current burn rates. Eastern Refinery PLC remains shut, with crude arriving no earlier than early May. Authorities have run 9,116 anti-hoarding operations since March 3, recovering 5.42 lakh litres and jailing 45 individuals. The government has also approved imports of 100,000 tonnes of diesel from Kazakhstan as it builds its post-Hormuz supplier base.
March inflation eases to 8.71% — but energy pressure builds for April reading
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics confirmed that inflation fell to 8.71% in March 2026, down from February's 10-month peak of 9.13%, primarily driven by a drop in food inflation to 8.24%. The relief is narrow: transport prices accelerated sharply (7.47% vs 6.65%), and economists warn April's figure will reflect rising fuel and freight costs more fully. The IMF has already revised its FY26 inflation forecast upward to 9.2%.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.20 ৳
▲ 52-week range: 120.85 – 123.40
DSEX (last close, 15 Apr)
~5,255 pts
▲ 25 pts; 0.47% watch today's open
Inflation (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Down from 9.13% in Feb · food eased
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held · Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
36%
▲ 25-year high of total credit
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (15 Apr) | ~$95 ▼ Easing on Iran peace optimism |
| WTI Crude (15 Apr) | ~$90.75 ▼ Below $92 on talk-track hopes |
| Iran War / Hormuz | Trump: war "very close to over" · US-Iran talks in Pakistan likely this week · Ceasefire extension in-principle but not formal · Strait remains restricted |
| IEA Warning | Conflict could wipe out all 2026 global oil demand growth — first annual decline since 2020 |
| Wall St (15 Apr close) | S&P 500 +0.80% → 7,022.95 (record) · Nasdaq +1.59% → 24,016 (record) · Dow −0.15% → 48,464 |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% Held · 1 cut signalled for late 2026 |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% ▼ Deal intact |
| US–China Trade | ~45% tariffs remain; Chinese exports rerouting to new corridors |
| Goldman Sachs | Brent to average above $100/bbl in 2026 if Hormuz stays shut; global recession risk if conflict escalates |
| India–BD | India supplying diesel via Friendship Pipeline; Kazakhstan deal (100k tonnes) approved; Brunei, Latvia, Ukraine approached for urea |
| Saudi Arabia | 40k tonnes urea agreed for BD — but shipment blocked at Hormuz; rerouting being explored |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
Novo Nordisk and OpenAI announced a full enterprise AI partnership on April 14 — covering drug discovery, manufacturing, supply chain, and workforce upskilling across 170 countries. The practical takeaway for any professional in Dhaka: this is the clearest signal yet that AI is no longer a tech-sector story. It is entering the operational core of pharma, logistics, and healthcare. The pattern is consistent across industries: companies that deploy AI into workflows, not just experiments, are seeing measurable gains. For your own work — whether in RMG, banking, or procurement — the question is not "should we try AI?" but "which workflow do we integrate it into first?"
novo nordisk · openai · cnbc · april 14, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Bangladesh's Prime Minister is asking the world for $2 billion to survive an energy shock. The fertiliser tenders are coming back empty. The refinery is dark. And the Aman paddy season begins in June. These are not abstractions — they are a sequence leading to a food and agriculture crisis if the next 6 weeks go badly. We keep treating each symptom — the fuel queue, the refinery shutdown, the urea price spike — as a separate emergency. They are not separate. They are all the same thing: a country that built its growth on imported energy and a single trade artery, now discovering what happens when that artery closes. The $2 billion appeal is the right move. The harder question is what Bangladesh builds after this, so it does not have to make the same appeal again.
— Founder · Thursday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
WEDNESDAY, 15 APRIL 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Free forever
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
Bangladesh's only refinery shuts down — next crude shipment not before May
Eastern Refinery PLC halted operations on April 12 after running through its last reserves, including crude trapped in the SPM pipeline and dead-stock from tank bottoms. The trigger is the Strait of Hormuz disruption: a scheduled Saudi shipment was delayed, an Abu Dhabi charter was cancelled outright, and no new crude is expected this month. The Energy Division insists refined product stocks remain adequate for now, but the government is urgently hunting supply from India, Malaysia, Nigeria, Australia, and the US — and has even sought a sanctions waiver to access Russian petroleum. Five of Bangladesh's six fertiliser factories have been idle since March due to gas shortages. This is the most direct, domestic cost of the Iran war so far.
IMF projects 4.7% GDP growth for FY26 — higher than WB and ADB, but economists are sceptical
In its World Economic Outlook released yesterday (April 14), the IMF kept its Bangladesh growth forecast unchanged at 4.7% for FY26, slowing to 4.3% in FY27. But it revised inflation upward to 9.2% for FY26. The World Bank (April 8) projected a more cautious 3.9%, and the ADB (April 10) forecast 4.0%. Economist Zahid Hussain called the IMF figure "rather strange," noting it assumes Bangladesh remains insulated from the Iran war for the remainder of the fiscal year — an assumption contradicted by rising energy costs and supply disruptions already in progress.
Pahela Baishakh brings long queues at fuel pumps, not joy
As Bangladesh welcomed Bengali New Year 1433 yesterday, fuel pump queues across Dhaka and major districts were the unseasonal backdrop. The government introduced a Farmer's Card programme on the occasion. But the more pressing headline was energy: the PM's adviser acknowledged a fuel shortage while insisting it is "under control." Fuel imports are up 14%, yet costs have jumped 29% — a gap analysts say reflects distribution failures, not just geopolitics.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.90 ৳
▲ Near 52-week high of 123.40
DSEX (last close, 13 Apr)
~5,230 pts
▼ -41.03, -0.78%; war-driven selloff
Inflation (Feb '26, BBS)
9.13%
▲ 10-month high · IMF now sees 9.2% FY26
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
36%
▲ 25-year high of total credit
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (14 Apr) | ~$98.64 ▲ US naval blockade of Iran's ports · Day 2 |
| WTI Crude (14 Apr) | ~$92/bbl ▼ Iran-US talks hopes ease pressure |
| Strait of Hormuz | Effectively closed — US Navy blockade of Iranian ports from Apr 14; Pakistan brokering second round of US-Iran talks |
| Iran War Status | Two-week ceasefire expired; blockade active; Trump: "Tehran has reached out" — talks possible this week |
| IEA Warning | Conflict could wipe out all global oil demand growth in 2026 — first annual decline since pandemic |
| Goldman Sachs | Brent to average above $100/bbl if Hormuz stays shut one more month; warns of global recession risk |
| Wall St (14 Apr close) | S&P 500 +1.18% → 6,967 · Dow +0.66% → 48,536 · Nasdaq +1.96% → 23,639 |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% Held · 1 cut signalled for late 2026 |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% ▼ Deal intact |
| US–China Trade | US tariffs on China remain ~45%; Chinese exports rerouting to new corridors |
| Saudi Arabia | East-West pipeline restored; but ~600k bpd production still offline from attack damage |
| India–BD Relation | India supplying ~22,000 tonnes diesel to BD via pipeline & sea; additional shipments pending |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
Stanford's 2026 AI Index (released April 13) confirms what busy professionals in Dhaka should know: AI now delivers 26% productivity gains in coding and 14% in customer service — but gains stall on tasks requiring judgment. More practically: new data from ActivTrak shows employees using more than 3 AI tools actually see productivity decline, as context-switching kills deep work. The practical takeaway for any professional right now — pick one or two AI tools that fit your actual workflow (writing, research, or spreadsheets) and go deep on those, rather than chasing every new tool. Fewer tools, used seriously, beat the alternative.
stanford hai · mit technology review · activtrak · april 13–14, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Bangladesh's only refinery is shut. The fertiliser factories are idle. Fuel queues stretched through Pahela Baishakh. This is not an abstract geopolitical story — it is the Iran war arriving at the kitchen door and the petrol pump. We were already fragile: 36% bad loans, 9% inflation, three consecutive years of slowing growth. The energy shock is not the cause of Bangladesh's vulnerability — it is the stress test that reveals it. The government is hunting for fuel from nine different countries. The real question is not where the next shipment comes from, but how a country that imports almost everything it burns still has no strategic reserve plan worth speaking of.
— Founder · Wednesday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ • পহেলা বৈশাখ ১৪৩৩
TUESDAY, 14 APRIL 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Free forever
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
Fuel prices frozen for April — subsidy burden swells amid Hormuz tensions and new oil volatility.
Government confirmed diesel stays at Tk100/litre (import cost ~Tk198) for the month, absorbing the gap through subsidies now estimated at Tk167 crore+ daily. Finance Minister highlighted potential extra Tk36,000 crore burden in coming months due to Middle East disruptions. This holds despite weekend Islamabad talks collapse and renewed oil price swings. Bangladesh remains an outlier in South Asia for price stability, but fiscal strain is mounting as the new Bengali year begins.
DSEX reacts to weekend oil developments — first full session of Boishakh week.
Market closed April 13 at around 5,230 pts (down ~0.78% intraday signals). Today's session will test sentiment on energy/import sectors after oil's volatile ride. Watch banking and transport stocks closely.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.70 ৳
▲ Near recent highs · steady pressure
DSEX (13 Apr close)
5,230 pts
↓0.78% · volatility from global cues
Brent (early 14 Apr)
~98 $/bbl
▼ Cooling after weekend surge · still elevated
Fuel Subsidy Cost
167+ Tk cr/day
▲ Rising risk of extra Tk36,000cr
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Oil volatility | Brent ~$98 (down from weekend $101–103 spike) after Hormuz blockade enforcement and partial diplomacy signals |
| US–Iran | Blockade active; talks signals mixed — supply risk lingers for importers like Bangladesh |
| IMF WEO | Main chapter & briefing today (Apr 14) — first full post-escalation global outlook |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% · Deal intact |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Economists & Planners
IMF World Economic Outlook April 2026 main release lands today (April 14, 9am ET). It includes updated global growth scenarios factoring in Middle East energy shocks. Download free at imf.org/en/publications/weo. Bangladeshi professionals building budgets or risk models: prioritize the multiple-scenario sections and Bangladesh-specific commentary before finalising April–June forecasts.
imf.org · WEO April 2026 · spring meetings
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Pohēla Bôishākh brings fresh beginnings, new notebooks, and hopeful colours. Yet the old pressures — frozen fuel prices, swelling subsidies, and oil uncertainty — follow us into the new year. Holding prices buys time and public relief. The real test is whether we use this window for deeper reforms before the next shock arrives.
— Founder · Tuesday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
MONDAY, 13 APRIL 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Free forever
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
Islamabad talks collapse — Trump orders US Navy blockade of Hormuz. Oil surges above $100.
After 21 hours of talks in Islamabad, the US and Iran failed to reach a deal on Sunday. VP Vance left saying Iran had "chosen not to accept our terms." Within hours, Trump announced the US Navy will blockade the Strait of Hormuz — denying passage to any vessel that has paid Iran a transit toll. Oil immediately surged: Brent jumped ~8% to ~$103, WTI climbed ~9% to above $105 in early Monday trading. The two tankers that had started approaching Hormuz on Sunday made U-turns as talks collapsed. For Bangladesh, this is the worst possible start to the week — a near-certain second energy shock on top of an already fragile import situation.
Bangladesh holds fuel prices — paying Tk167 crore per day in subsidies to do it
The government confirmed it will not raise fuel prices for now, keeping diesel at Tk100 per litre despite an import cost of approximately Tk198 per litre. That gap costs the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation roughly Tk167 crore every single day in subsidies. Bangladesh is currently the only country in South Asia holding prices stable — Pakistan raised by 50%, India, Nepal and others have adjusted. The Finance Minister left for Washington Friday night to attend IMF–World Bank Spring Meetings (April 13–18), where Bangladesh's energy subsidy situation will directly enter global policy discussions.
DSEX opens today — first session since Sunday's Hormuz blockade announcement
Today's 10am–2pm session is the first to price in Sunday's talk collapse and the blockade order. The last confirmed DSEX close was 5,271.4 on April 12.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.70 ৳
▲ Near 52-week high · pressure rising
DSEX (last close 12 Apr)
5271.4 pts
▲ 16.69 pts . 0.26% . good opening
Brent (early Mon 13 Apr)
~103 $/bbl
▲ +8% · Blockade announcement surge
Fuel Subsidy Cost
167 Tk cr/day
▲ Diesel cost Tk198 · retail Tk100
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Islamabad result | No deal after 21 hrs — nuclear + Hormuz control were breaking points |
| US Hormuz blockade | Trump ordered Navy to interdict vessels that paid Iran transit tolls |
| Brent (early Mon) | ~$103 ▲ +8% · biggest daily surge in weeks |
| WTI (early Mon) | ~$105 ▲ +9% · above $100 again |
| Saudi Arabia | East-West pipeline capacity restored — partial supply offset |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% ▼ Deal intact |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Economists & Planners
The IMF's World Economic Outlook April 2026 publishes its main chapter tomorrow, April 14 — the first full global growth forecast incorporating the Middle East war's impact. IMF MD Kristalina Georgieva pre-announced it will include multiple scenarios ranging from quick recovery to prolonged high oil prices. Bangladesh's Finance Minister is in Washington for these meetings. For any professional building a budget model, investment case, or risk assessment this week: read the WEO before finalising numbers. It will be free to download at imf.org/en/publications/weo from 9am ET tomorrow. This is not hype — it is the single most consequential economic data release of the month.
imf.org · spring meetings 2026 · weo april 2026 release april 14
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
The ceasefire lasted five days. The Islamabad talks lasted 21 hours and produced nothing. Now there is a blockade. The Bangladesh government is spending Tk167 crore every day to pretend fuel prices haven't changed. This works — until it doesn't. The question every professional should be asking today is not whether the situation is serious. It clearly is. The question is: what is my plan for the scenario where it gets measurably worse by end of April?
— Founder · Monday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
SUNDAY, 12 APRIL 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · DSE Opens Today
Free forever
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
Bangladesh vessel denied Hormuz — and our refinery is nearly out of crude
Two energy stories converged this week that every professional needs to understand together. First, Bangladesh Shipping Corporation's MV Banglar Joyjatra — stranded for 40 days — was denied permission by Iran to cross the Strait of Hormuz on Friday and has returned to Sharjah. Second and more urgently, the Eastern Refinery Limited in Chattogram had only ~20,000 tonnes of crude remaining as of early April — enough for less than a week at normal throughput. The refinery has now scaled back processing and faces a potential unscheduled halt. Government says 80% of fuel needs come from refined imports, not ERL — but an ERL shutdown cuts domestic production of 12 fuel types including petrol, diesel, and octane at the worst possible time.
Bangladesh explores Russian crude via India as energy strategy shifts
Bangladesh is now actively seeking to have Russian crude refined at Indian refineries and delivered as finished fuel — a direct response to the Gulf supply shock. The ERL's 58-year-old plant cannot process Russian heavy crude, but India's refineries can. A Bangladeshi delegation raised the proposal formally this week. Separately, 8,000 metric tons of diesel arrived at Parbatipur via the India–Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline on Friday night — part of 25,000 MT imported from India's Numaligarh Refinery in four phases since the war began.
Islamabad talks continue overnight — DSE opens this morning with outcome unknown
US–Iran negotiations in Islamabad continued into early Sunday. Pakistani sources told CNN the tone was "largely positive" but a stalemate persists over Hormuz control. Iran wants Lebanon ceasefire and frozen assets released before opening the strait. Two US Navy destroyers entered the Strait for mine-clearing operations. Today's DSE session (10am–2pm) opens with no deal confirmed — the first trading day of the week trades entirely on weekend headlines.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.70 ৳
▲ Near 52-week high range
DSEX (last close 09 Apr)
5,258 pts
DSE closed Thu–Sat · Opens today
ADB Growth Forecast FY26
4.00%
▼ 3rd cut in 7 months · ADO Apr 2026
ADB Inflation Forecast FY26
9.00%
▲ Energy + supply disruption
Global Signal
Weekend Outcome — What Opens Monday
| Islamabad talks | Continuing into Sunday — positive tone, Hormuz stalemate |
| US Navy in Hormuz | 2 destroyers entered strait for mine-clearing operations |
| Qatar announcement | Persian Gulf navigation resumes Sun 6am–6pm for all vessels |
| Iran's condition | Lebanon ceasefire + frozen assets before Hormuz opens fully |
| Goldman Sachs | Brent above $100 avg for 2026 if Hormuz stays closed 1 more month |
| Brent (10 Apr) | ~$94.69 · Down ~10% on week · Still 40% above pre-war |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Supply Chain & Energy
Bangladesh's energy crisis is a supply chain problem at its core — and this week exposed a structural gap: no real-time visibility on fuel inventory, vessel positions, or refinery throughput across the country. Tools like MarineTraffic (marinetraffic.com) track vessel positions live and are free to use. For the Banglar Joyjatra situation, MarineTraffic was the first source to confirm movement. Any logistics, energy, or procurement professional can set up free vessel alerts today. Pair it with Kpler's public summaries for tanker flow data — both sources were cited this week by Reuters, CNBC, and Bloomberg in their Hormuz coverage.
marinetraffic.com · kpler.com · april 2026 practical use case
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
OpenAI challenges Claude
OpenAI’s new $100/month ChatGPT Pro tier targets heavy developers, bridging the gap to challenge Anthropic as professional demand for AI coding tools like Codex surges.
techcrunch.com
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Bangladesh's lone refinery is nearly out of crude. Our only ship in the Gulf was turned back. We're importing diesel via a pipeline from Assam, and exploring refining Russian oil in India. None of this was the plan. All of it is happening at once. The energy crisis isn't coming — it's already structurally present, managed day-to-day through alternatives that weren't built for this scale. The professional question this week isn't whether there's a fuel crisis. It's how long the day-to-day management holds.
— Founder · Sunday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
SATURDAY, 11 APRIL 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekend Edition
Free forever
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
ADB cuts Bangladesh growth to 4% — third downgrade in seven months
The Asian Development Bank's latest Asian Development Outlook, released yesterday, projects Bangladesh's GDP growth at 4.0% for FY26 — down from 4.7% in December 2025, 5.0% in September, and 5.1% in April 2025. This is the third consecutive downward revision in under a year. Inflation is forecast to stay elevated at 9.0% in FY26 before easing slightly to 8.5% in FY27. The ADB directly named the Middle East conflict as the primary new risk — citing disrupted supply chains, rising energy costs, and softening Gulf remittances. Critically, it warned that if disruptions persist into Q3 2026, Bangladesh's growth could slide further to just 3.5%.
US March CPI surges 0.9% — energy drives global inflation pressure
US consumer prices rose 0.9% in March — well above the 0.7% estimate — almost entirely driven by energy. Core CPI, stripping out food and energy, came in at a tame 0.2%, below consensus. For Bangladesh, the headline number matters: it signals that Dhaka cannot expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates aggressively, keeping the dollar strong and import costs elevated heading into the new fiscal year.
Iran–US talks begin today in Islamabad — Hormuz still effectively closed
Direct negotiations between US and Iranian delegations get underway in Islamabad today, with VP Vance leading the American side. Despite the two-week ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut — Iran is vetting every vessel, Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline has been struck, and the ADNOC CEO confirmed no freedom of navigation yet exists. Monday's market open in Dhaka will trade on whatever emerges from these talks this weekend.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.70 ৳
▲ Near 52-week high range
DSEX (last close 09 Apr)
5,258 pts
▼ 60 pts · DSE closed Fri & wknd
ADB Growth Forecast FY26
4.00%
▼ 3rd cut · was 5.1% in Apr '25
ADB Inflation Forecast FY26
9.00%
▲ High energy + supply disruption
Global Signal
Weekend Watch — What Sets Up Monday
| Islamabad talks | US–Iran direct negotiations today — outcome sets Monday's tone |
| Hormuz status | Effectively closed — Iran vetting ships, no free navigation |
| Saudi Arabia | East-West pipeline struck — output cut by ~600k bpd |
| Brent (10 Apr close) | ~$94.69 ▼ Down 10%+ on the week despite bounce |
| US CPI Mar 2026 | +0.9% MoM — above estimates, driven by energy |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% ▼ Deal intact |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Business Planning
This week three major institutions — the World Bank, ADB, and BBS — published fresh Bangladesh economic data within 72 hours of each other. That rarely happens. Any professional who had to brief a client, update a forecast, or write a report this week faced an information overload problem. This is exactly the use case for Google NotebookLM: upload the three reports as PDFs, ask it to synthesize the conflicting signals into a single briefing note. It stays grounded in your sources, doesn't hallucinate, and cites where each figure came from. Free to use at notebooklm.google.com.
google notebooklm · april 2026 use case
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
This week, the World Bank said 3.9%. The ADB said 4.0%. BBS confirmed Q2 at 3.03%. Three institutions, three numbers, one direction. In seven months, ADB alone has cut its Bangladesh forecast five times — from 5.1% down to 4.0%. That is not forecasting noise. That is a structural story being written in real time. The professional who understands that story will make better decisions than the one still waiting for conditions to normalise.
— Founder · Saturday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
THURSDAY, 02 APRIL 2026
5 sections
Under 280 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Free forever
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
Bangladesh hunts for fuel worldwide as energy crisis deepens
The government approved emergency imports of 2.60 lakh tonnes of diesel and crude — from Kazakhstan, Indonesia, and a UAE-based trader — to contain a worsening fuel crunch triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran. Long queues persist at pumps across Dhaka despite official assurances of no shortage.
Energy import bill to surge $4.8B this year
Annual fossil fuel import costs are projected to rise 40% from 2025 levels — equal to 1.1% of GDP — if oil prices stay elevated. The country’s only refinery holds crude for just 17–18 days at current pace, per Zero Carbon Analytics.
Trump signals Iran wind-down; Brent dips below $100
Trump said overnight the US would leave Iran “in two to three weeks,” pushing Brent below $100/barrel for the first time in a week — a rare relief for Dhaka’s import bill and inflation outlook.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
123.00 ৳
▲ Taka at 52-wk high
DSEX Close (01 Apr)
5,203.96 pts
Prev. session close
Inflation
9.13%
▲ 10-month high
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude | $112–115 ▲ +55% Mar |
| WTI Crude | ~$103 ▲ +53% Mar |
| USD / BDT | 122.70 ▲ Taka weak |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% — held |
| BD Jet Fuel | Tk 202/L ▲ +80% Mar |
| US–China Tariff | 33.9% ETR ▲ probe on BD |
| RMG Export YTD | $10.69B ▲ Jan '26 |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
Use This Now
Google’s NotebookLM (now on Gemini 3) supports a 1 million token context window — upload 50 PDFs, reports, or policy docs and query them all at once. For Dhaka professionals dealing with regulatory filings, BB circulars, or earnings reports, this is a free, practical research tool worth trying today: notebooklm.google.com
google labs · march 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
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Every morning this week I’ve woken up to a fuel crisis getting worse and an oil price getting slightly better. The gap between what the government says and what people feel at the pump is enormous. That gap is where trust goes to die — and where smart professionals should be paying attention.
— Founder · Thursday morning · Dhaka
ORAWKE · DIGEST
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ · The Morning Brief · The Aura of Waking.