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WEDNESDAY, 29 APRIL 2026
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Bangladesh Business & Economy
Bangladesh Bank sounds the alarm: inflation rising again — money printing is the reason
Bangladesh Bank released its Q3 FY26 quarterly economic report yesterday, showing average inflation climbed to 8.8% in January–March, up from 8.3% the previous quarter — driven by Eid-related food demand and persistent energy costs. Food inflation jumped 1.2 percentage points to 8.6%; protein prices alone accounted for 44.6% of the food inflation increase. The timing is politically and economically awkward. Economists and business leaders have separately raised grave concern over the government's recent practice of borrowing directly from Bangladesh Bank — effectively printing money — to meet its spending deficit. Reserve money growth has surged to 13.35% year-on-year in February, more than double the 6.16% recorded a year earlier, with roughly Tk 200 billion (USD 1.65B) injected into the economy. The Bangladesh Bank Governor last Saturday denied any such printing had occurred. The central bank's own quarterly report, published 24 hours later, tells a different story about the inflationary trajectory. Dhaka professionals need to watch this closely: if reserve money continues to expand while Hormuz remains closed and fuel prices are elevated, the March easing to 8.71% may prove brief.
Trump rejects Iran's Hormuz proposal — oil hits $111, WTI crosses $100
On Tuesday, multiple sources confirmed President Trump told his advisors he was dissatisfied with Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which would have required the US to lift its naval blockade. Secretary of State Rubio called the offer inadequate — "that's not opening the straits; those are international waterways." Brent crude surged nearly 3% to close at $111.26/bbl; WTI crossed $100 for the first time this cycle, closing at $99.93/bbl. Chip and tech stocks fell on a Wall Street Journal report questioning OpenAI's financial metrics — Nasdaq dropped 0.9%, S&P 500 fell 0.5%. This is the worst combined signal in two weeks: the diplomatic door has reopened and closed again in 48 hours.
Today is Jerome Powell's last Federal Reserve press conference
The Fed's two-day meeting concludes today with a rate decision at 2 PM ET (midnight Dhaka time). Rate is expected to hold at 4.25–4.50% — 100% probability per CME FedWatch. But the real watch is Powell's press conference: it is his final one as Fed Chair. His term ends May 15; Kevin Warsh is nominated as his successor. What Powell says about oil-driven inflation, the outlook for cuts, and the economy's resilience will set market tone for May. Bangladesh's borrowing costs, export competitiveness, and capital flows all move with Fed signalling.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.725 ৳
XE.com mid-market · Apr 28, 21:22 UTC
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
17.98 ৳
XE.com mid-market · Apr 28, 23:52 UTC
DSEX (Apr 28, 2:30 PM)
5,308 pts
▲ +8.32 pts · +0.157% · Quiet recovery
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪৪,৭১১ ৳
▼ −Tk 2,216 · 58th revision · Eff. Apr 28
Inflation Rate (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Eased from 9.13% (Feb) · Q3 avg: 8.8% (BB report)
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
36%
▲ 9 NBFIs in liquidation · Aviva admin active
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (Apr 28 close) SURGE | $111.26/bbl ▲ +2.9% · Trump rejected Iran proposal · highest close in 3 weeks · JPMorgan warns $150 if Hormuz stays closed to mid-May |
| WTI Crude (Apr 28 close) | $99.93/bbl ▲ +3.1% · First time above $100 this cycle · 7th consecutive session gain |
| Strait of Hormuz | Iran's offer rejected by Trump · "not opening the straits" — Rubio · traffic near zero · Iraq tanker passed Mon but no follow-through · OPEC+ May quota hike called "academic" by analysts |
| Iran War Status | Ceasefire holding but talks collapsed again · Trump gave Iran new deadline: reopen Hormuz or "face hell" · 9th week of war · IRGC mines in strait; Gulf officials: months to repair even if war ends today |
| Wall St (Apr 28 close) | S&P 500 7,138 (−0.5%) · Nasdaq 24,663 (−0.9%) · Dow 49,136 (−0.06%) · Chip stocks led losses on WSJ report questioning OpenAI metrics · Coca-Cola +6% beat |
| Fed — Today's Decision TODAY | Rate hold expected 4.25–4.50% · Decision 2 PM ET (midnight Dhaka) · Powell's FINAL press conference as Fed Chair · term ends May 15 · Kevin Warsh nominated as successor |
| Big Tech Earnings Tonight | Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft all report after market close today (Wed) · Apple reports Thu · AI capex disclosure is the key signal for global tech investment cycle |
| OpenAI / AI Slowdown Risk | WSJ report: OpenAI missed internal financial metrics · chip stocks sold off Tue · Qualcomm −2%, Nvidia −1.5% · market now cautious ahead of Big Tech AI capex disclosures tonight |
| US–China Trade | China's NDRC ordered Meta to unwind $2B Manus acquisition · tariffs at ~45% on China · BD manufacturers watching RMG order diversion opportunity |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% · Trade deal intact · BD committed $3.5B/yr US agri + $15B energy over 15 yrs |
| OPEC+ (May quota) | Agreed +206,000 bpd for May — called "academic" while Hormuz closed · represents <2% of disrupted supply · next OPEC+ meeting May 3 |
| Goldman Sachs | Q4 2026 Brent target: $90 avg · warns of "extreme inventory draws" at 11–12M bpd pace · $150+ possible if Hormuz stays shut to mid-May (JPMorgan) |
| Saudi Arabia / BD Energy | Saudi crude cargo en route · Chattogram arrival May 2–3 · Saudi rerouting exports via Yanbu (Red Sea) to bypass Hormuz · critical for BD diesel supply |
| India–BD / Regional | Energy cooperation ongoing · Pakistan hosting new round of diplomatic outreach on Hormuz · Japan, S. Korea pressing for international solution |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
A Wall Street Journal report published Tuesday said OpenAI recently missed several internal financial metrics. Chip stocks immediately fell. This is worth noting carefully: the market's AI enthusiasm has rested on the assumption that enterprise adoption is accelerating. If OpenAI — the defining company of the current AI cycle — is struggling to convert investment into revenue, the entire AI capex thesis gets harder to defend. For Dhaka professionals, the practical question is simple: if Big Tech reports weaker-than-expected AI revenue tonight, expect AI tools to get cheaper and more competitive faster — companies will fight harder for adoption. If they beat expectations, the investment cycle accelerates and tools improve faster. Either outcome is useful. What is not useful is building your workflow around AI hype rather than actual deployment. Tonight's earnings are the reality check. The answer arrives by Thursday morning, Dhaka time.
Wall Street Journal · Yahoo Finance · CNBC · April 28, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
On Saturday the Bangladesh Bank Governor said publicly that no money was printed. On Tuesday the central bank published a quarterly report showing reserve money grew at 13.35% — more than double the previous year. Both things happened in the same week. One of them is not true, or the Governor's definition of "printing money" is different from every economist's definition. This is the kind of institutional credibility gap that compounds over time. Markets notice when the central bank's communications and its own data point in opposite directions. And beyond the credibility question, the underlying problem is real: the government is spending more than it collects, it cannot get the IMF tranche, external budget financing has dried up, and fuel costs are at record highs. Meanwhile Trump rejected the Hormuz proposal last night and oil crossed $100. Jerome Powell gives his final press conference today. There is a lot happening on a Wednesday morning in Dhaka.
— Founder · Wednesday morning · Dhaka