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SATURDAY, 2 MAY 2026
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Bangladesh Business & Economy
Bangladesh repurposes $1.13 billion in WB & AIIB loans — the energy & food crisis is being priced in
In a decision that tells you more than any press release, the Finance Ministry on April 27 quietly redirected $1.135 billion from existing World Bank and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank projects toward emergency energy and food imports. That is not a borrowing increase — it is a triage: funds already committed to development are now being diverted to keep fuel, gas, and fertiliser flowing as Middle East prices remain elevated. $785 million comes from 12 World Bank projects; $350 million from one AIIB project. Bangladesh activated the WB's Rapid Response Option on April 5, which allows up to 10% of ongoing funds to be redirected. Economists caution that hard-term borrowing now makes up a growing share of budget support — at interest rates of SOFR + 0.50% to 1.45%, these are not concessional loans. The underlying message: the Hormuz closure is no longer a global headline. It is now a line item in Bangladesh's budget.
April remittance on track for another record — $2.58 billion in 25 days
Bangladesh received $2.578 billion in the first 25 days of April 2026, averaging $103 million per day — up 14.5% year-on-year for the same period. Total FY26 remittance (July–April 25) has reached $28.79 billion, up nearly 20% over last year. The March all-time monthly record of $3.755 billion now looks like a new floor. The risk economists flag: over 60% of workers are in the Gulf — the very region where the war is being fought. Diversification into Europe is now a policy priority; a government seminar this week targeted sending one million skilled workers to Europe by 2031.
Soybean oil up again — Tk 199/litre as import costs bite
The government raised the retail price of bottled soybean oil by 2%, from Tk 195 to Tk 199 per litre, citing rising international prices for the heavily import-dependent commodity. This is the second edible oil adjustment in two months and adds to food inflation pressure that had already eased to 8.24% in March after peaking at 9.30% in February. With the Middle East conflict keeping freight costs elevated, non-food inflation actually rose slightly to 9.09% even as the headline number eased.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.80 ৳
Mid-market rate · May 2
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~16.92 ৳
▲ Mid-market · May 2
DSEX (Last Close, 30 Apr)
5,286 pts
▼ −30.49 pts · −0.57%
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪২,৪৯৫ ৳
▲ +Tk 2,158 · Updated 30 Apr
Inflation Rate (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Eased from 9.13% in Feb · Food 8.24%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
~36%
▲ 25-year high of total credit
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: ↓ revised · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (May 1) | ~$110/bbl ▲ Iran deal uncertainty; down from $114+ intraday high |
| WTI Crude (May 1) | ~$101/bbl ▲ Iran peace proposal via Pakistan; WTI fell ~2% on the news |
| Strait of Hormuz | Effectively closed · US naval blockade continues; Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei vows Tehran will retain control of the strait |
| Iran War Status | Iran sent peace proposal through Pakistani mediators; Trump faces 60-day War Powers deadline · Ceasefire holds but no deal signed; Trump vows blockade continues |
| US–China Tariff | US tariffs on China ~45%; BD manufacturers watching for order diversion opportunity into RMG |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% Deal intact · ART signed Feb 12; MP demands parliamentary review |
| Wall St (May 1 close) | S&P 500 +0.29% → 7,230 (record) · Nasdaq +0.89% → 25,114 (record) · Dow −0.31% → 49,499 · Apple +3% boosted tech |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% Held at Apr 29 meeting · Powell era ends mid-May; markets pricing no cuts in 2026 |
| US CPI (Mar '26) | 3.3% annual · Core CPI 2.6% · Energy up 10.9% driving headline; April data due May 12 |
| Bitcoin | ~$78,178 +$1,861 from yesterday · Down ~$18,000 YoY; ETF outflows last week |
| Goldman Sachs | Brent avg forecast $83/bbl for 2026; two-way risk — Hormuz closure upside vs. weaker demand downside |
| IEA Warning | Global oil demand set to decline in 2026 for first time since COVID — conflict wiping out all demand growth |
| India–BD Relation | India supplying diesel via pipeline; BD seeks to diversify crude sources amid Hormuz closure |
| Saudi Arabia | Key crude supplier to BD; BD loading Murban cargo from Aramco for May arrival via Red Sea alt-route |
| RMG Export YTD | FY26 remittance up ~20% YoY; RMG ~$40–42B/year; tariff diversion from China being watched closely |
| Middle East Situation | US naval blockade on Iranian ports in force; Iran supreme leader rules out giving up nuclear/missile capability; peace talks via Pakistan ongoing |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
The AI model race moved so fast this year that the model you chose three months ago may already be outdated. As of May 2026, OpenAI shipped GPT-5.5 in April, Anthropic has released four major Claude updates since January, and Google's Gemini 3.1 now integrates natively inside Docs, Sheets and Gmail. The practical signal for Dhaka's professionals: stop picking one tool and being loyal to it. The firms getting value right now are using Claude for quality writing, Gemini for Google Workspace tasks, and GPT-5.5 for complex multi-step document work — mixing them by task. More importantly, Microsoft Agent 365 launched May 1, 2026, bringing autonomous multi-step AI workflows inside Excel, Word and PowerPoint. If your team uses Microsoft 365, that is the most immediate upgrade available this week — no new app required.
DataNorth AI · blog.mean.ceo · May 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Bangladesh just quietly redirected over a billion dollars of existing loans to pay for fuel. Not new borrowing — existing development money, pulled from roads and schools and hospitals, rerouted to energy imports. That is the war reaching us without a single bomb. Wall Street closed at a record last night. Nasdaq hit 25,000 for the first time. Apple beat earnings. And somewhere in our Finance Ministry, someone is calculating how many months of diesel we can afford before the next shipment. The Strait of Hormuz is not on the front page here. But it is in the budget. May arrives with the same unresolved tension: record remittances propping up reserves while every import costs more. We are holding, but not moving forward.
— Founder · Saturday morning · Dhaka