ORAWEK
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MONDAY, 4 MAY 2026
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Bangladesh Business & Economy
Eastern Refinery's crude rescue ship arrives this week — 75 days without a drop from the Gulf
Bangladesh's only state-owned refinery, Eastern Refinery Limited (ERL), has been shut since April 13 — the longest crude stoppage since the refinery opened. The last shipment arrived February 18. Two originally scheduled cargoes from Saudi Arabia and the UAE were cancelled when the US-Israel war closed the Strait of Hormuz. After 75 days of zero crude imports, the government secured 100,000 tonnes of Murban crude loaded from Fujairah, UAE — bypassing the Persian Gulf entirely via the Red Sea. The vessel 'MT Ninemia' departed Yanbu, Saudi Arabia on April 21 and is expected to anchor at Chattogram outer anchorage on May 5 or 6. Two additional 100,000-tonne cargoes are lined up for later in May. Officials confirm there is no immediate fuel shortage — the government pre-purchased 600,000 tonnes of refined diesel, octane and furnace oil in April at elevated spot prices. The bill for keeping the lights on just got bigger. The ERL's restart, once crude arrives, is the clearest signal yet that Bangladesh is building a workaround to the Hormuz blockade — one cargo at a time.
Bangladesh GDP slows to 3.03% in Q2 FY26 — industrial sector at its weakest in years
New BBS data (released April 6) shows GDP growth slowed to 3.03% in October–December 2025, the second quarter of FY26 — down from 3.53% a year earlier. The industrial sector, which expanded 6.82% in Q1, collapsed to just 1.27% growth in Q2. Services also slowed. Agriculture held up at 3.68%. Q1 was brighter at 4.96%, but the Q2 number raises questions about whether the BNP government's investment story can revive the momentum. Energy disruptions from the Iran war and still-elevated borrowing costs are the structural anchors pulling growth lower.
Visa–Asia Foundation MoU signals push for digital finance inclusion in Bangladesh
Visa has signed a memorandum of understanding with The Asia Foundation to advance digital financial inclusion across Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan. The partnership will focus on economic empowerment and digital innovation. With Bangladesh's mobile financial services (MFS) sector already the most active in the region — bKash processes more transactions daily than most banks — the question is no longer whether digital finance works here. It is who gets left out of it.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.82 ৳
xe.com · May 4, 8 AM
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~17.97 ৳
Mid-market · May 3, 2:30 PM
DSEX (Last Close, 3 May)
5,265.39 pts
▼ −21.48 pts · −0.41% · DSE
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪২,৪৯৫ ৳
Last updated Apr 30 · BAJUS
Inflation Rate (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Eased from 9.13% · Food: 8.24%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
~36%
▲ 25-year high · 5 banks under BB watch
GDP Growth FY26
3.03%
▼ Q2 FY26 (Oct–Dec '25) · BBS provisional
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (May 3) | ~$108/bbl ▼ Eased on Iran peace proposal; weekly close below $110 after wild swings · Up ~60% since war began Feb 28 |
| WTI Crude (May 3) | ~$101/bbl ▼ Iran reviewing US response to 14-point proposal · WTI fell toward $101 on optimism |
| Strait of Hormuz | Effectively closed · OPEC+ agreed symbolic June output increase after UAE exit · Goldman: exports at 4% of pre-war normal |
| Iran War Status | Iran reviewing US response to its 14-point peace proposal · Ceasefire holds but Hormuz remains shut · Trump: naval blockade continues · War Powers 60-day clock — US argues ceasefire "terminated" hostilities |
| Wall St (May 1 close) | S&P 500 +0.29% → 7,230 (record) · Nasdaq +0.89% → 25,114 (record) · Dow −0.31% → 49,499 · Best month for S&P & Nasdaq since 2020 · Apple +3% on earnings beat |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% · Held at Apr 29 FOMC — likely Powell's final meeting · New Fed chair expected mid-May |
| US CPI (Mar '26) | 3.3% annual · Core 2.6% · Energy +10.9% driving headline · April data due May 12 |
| Bitcoin (May 1) | ~$78,178 Steady · ETF outflows last week · Still ~$18K below year-ago |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% · ART deal signed Feb 9 · Parliament review demanded · Malaysia declared equivalent deal null and void · BD has not followed |
| US–China Trade | US tariffs on China ~45% · BD RMG tracking US-China order diversion opportunity |
| Goldman Sachs | Brent avg $83/bbl forecast 2026 · Global oil demand may fall in 2026 for first time since COVID |
| Asian Markets (May 1) | Nikkei 225 +0.38% → 59,513 · Markets open Monday tracking Wall St records & Iran deal cautious optimism |
| BD Crude Shipment | 100,000T Murban crude (MT Ninemia) → due Chattogram May 5–6 via Red Sea alt-route from Yanbu · Two more 100K-tonne cargoes due later in May |
| India–BD | Diesel imports via India pipeline continuing; BD FM in Delhi this week for bilateral talks |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
Anthropic just connected Claude to Blender, Adobe, SketchUp and Splice — creative software used by designers, architects and music producers worldwide. The practical shift: AI is no longer a separate tab you switch to. It is now embedded inside the tools that produce actual deliverables. For Dhaka's creative professionals — agencies, architects, fashion designers, video producers — this matters because it means the bottleneck is no longer "learning AI." It is whether your team's workflow software gets an AI connector before a competitor's does. The broader signal from the week of April 26–May 2: AI tools are becoming AI workers inside existing software. OpenAI repositioned Sora into the GPT ecosystem rather than as a standalone product. Adobe deepened automation across its suite. The shift is from "generate content" to "complete workflows." If your firm is still using AI only as a writing assistant, you are one product cycle behind.
Anthropic.com · Boston Institute of Analytics · May 1, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Eastern Refinery stopped refining on April 13. The ship to restart it left Saudi Arabia on April 21. It arrives — if all goes well — on May 5. That is 22 days from shutdown to restart, covering roughly 2,400 km of alternative sea route because the normal one is a war zone. Somewhere in that number is the actual cost of the Hormuz crisis for Bangladesh: not a headline, not a press release. Just a ship taking the long way home to keep our petrol pumps running. Monday mornings should feel like a fresh start. This one feels like a stock-taking of how much we depend on things we do not control.
— Founder · Monday morning · Dhaka