ORAWEK
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TUESDAY, 28 APRIL 2026
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Bangladesh Business & Economy
Finance Minister tells journalists: "We must democratise the economy, not just the politics"
At a pre-budget meeting with economic journalists on Saturday, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury delivered the sharpest public language yet on structural reform. He blamed "patronage politics" directly for the economy's current state — saying it had concentrated wealth in the hands of oligarchs who turned the economy into a tool of political manipulation. His commitments: deregulation of major financial sectors, a new investment-led growth model, and budget spending starting from the deprived rather than the connected. He also confirmed the government is working toward a trillion-dollar economy by 2034. The Bangladesh Bank Governor — also present — denied reports the central bank had recently printed Tk 200 billion, calling the reports "not true at all." This is the clearest signal yet of what the next budget's direction will be. The question every professional in Dhaka is asking: will the rhetoric translate to the budget on the table, or is this another pre-budget performance?
External financing for Bangladesh shrinking as war shocks pile up
Budget-support funding from foreign financiers has effectively dried up, with only $750 million confirmed as the fiscal year nears its end — far below target. The IMF tranche ($1.3B) remains delayed. Brent crude crossed $108 on Monday. The Finance Minister himself warned that the Middle East crisis could cut South Asian growth by up to 1 percentage point. Bangladesh's forex reserves, at $33.19B at December end, are being tested from multiple directions simultaneously. This is the fiscal reality that the new budget must confront.
Iran offers Hormuz reopening — but postpones nuclear talks to a later stage
In a significant development on Monday, Iran sent a new proposal — via Pakistani mediators — to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, while pushing nuclear negotiations to a separate, future process. The White House was assessing the proposal as of Monday evening. Markets responded cautiously: S&P and Nasdaq both hit record highs (+0.12%, +0.20%), while oil stayed elevated with Brent at $108. For Bangladesh, this is the most consequential single development of the week — a reopened Hormuz within days would transform the energy and inflation outlook immediately.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.63 ৳
XE.com mid-market · Apr 28, 02:53 UTC
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
17.96 ৳
XE.com mid-market · Apr 28, 03:44 UTC
DSEX (Apr 27, 2:30 PM)
5,300 pts
▼ −15.61 pts · −0.294% · Pulled back from Mon gain
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪৬,৯২৭ ৳
Unchanged · Effective Apr 23 · BAJUS
Inflation Rate (Feb '26, BBS)
9.13%
▲ 10-month high · IMF FY26 forecast: 9.2%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
36%
▲ 9 NBFIs in liquidation; Aviva admin appointed
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (Apr 27 close) | $108.23/bbl ▲ +2.9% · Iran proposal news trimmed gains late · Goldman raised Q4 target to $90 avg (was $80) |
| WTI Crude (Apr 27 close) | $96.37/bbl ▲ +2% · "Market tightening every day" — ING commodities desk |
| Strait of Hormuz UPDATE | Iran proposed reopening Hormuz to US (via Pakistan) on Mon · nuclear talks to be separate · White House assessing · traffic near zero Monday · outcome expected this week |
| Iran War Status | New Iran proposal under US review · ceasefire extended indefinitely · Israel's defence minister awaiting US green light · IRGC seized 2 ships Sunday · war now 2 months old |
| BD Energy / Fuel | Saudi crude cargo due Chattogram May 2–3 · diesel stock critical ~10 days · Hormuz proposal, if accepted, could normalise supply by mid-May |
| Wall St (Apr 27 close) | S&P 7,173.91 (+0.12%, record) · Nasdaq 24,887.10 (+0.20%, record) · Dow 49,167.79 (−0.13%) · Nvidia +4%, Micron +5.6% · Apple −1.3% |
| This Week: Earnings + Fed | Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft report Wed · Apple Thu · Fed decision Wed · BoJ Tue · ECB Thu · 84% of S&P 500 reporters beat estimates so far · AI capex disclosure is the key watch |
| US Fed Rate | 4.25–4.50% · 100% probability of hold (CME) · Powell press conference Wed · criminal investigation into Powell closed by DoJ on Fri |
| Goldman Sachs (Apr 27) | Raised Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $90/bbl (from $80) · estimates 14.5M barrels/day of Persian Gulf production losses · "extreme inventory draws not sustainable" |
| Microsoft–OpenAI NEW | Microsoft announced end of its exclusive partnership with OpenAI on Monday · both companies retain relationship but exclusivity ends · signals AI ecosystem diversification |
| US–China Trade | US tariffs on China ~45% · China's NDRC ordered Meta to unwind its $2B acquisition of Manus (Singapore AI startup with Chinese roots) |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% · Trade deal intact · BD committed $3.5B/yr US agri + $15B energy over 15 yrs |
| India–BD Relation | Energy cooperation ongoing · India supplying diesel via pipeline · Pakistan PM in Saudi Arabia pushing new US-Iran talks |
| IEA Warning | IEA chief: "biggest energy security threat in history" · global oil demand set to decline in 2026 for first time since COVID · Hormuz proposal changes everything if real |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
Microsoft announced yesterday that its exclusive partnership with OpenAI is ending. This is not a breakup — both companies continue working together — but exclusivity is gone. The practical signal for Dhaka professionals: the era of one AI partner per platform is over. Microsoft can now integrate competing models (Anthropic's Claude, Google's Gemini) freely into its products. For anyone using Microsoft 365, Copilot, Azure, or Teams — the AI inside those tools may diversify. Separately, tonight's Big Tech earnings (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft reporting Wednesday Dhaka time) will reveal whether hundreds of billions in AI infrastructure spending is converting to actual enterprise revenue. If it is, AI tools get cheaper and better, faster. If it isn't, the hype cycle deflates. This is the most important AI verdict of the year. The answer arrives by Thursday morning.
TheStreet · CNBC · Yahoo Finance · April 27, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
The Finance Minister used the word "oligarchs" at a pre-budget meeting with journalists on Saturday. That is a word you don't usually hear from finance ministers about their own economy. He is right — and the people in that room know it. The question is whether the budget that follows will actually reflect it, or whether the word functions as a pressure release valve: say the thing publicly, then move on. Meanwhile Iran sent a Hormuz proposal on Monday. If it holds, oil could fall $15 in a week. If it fails, Bangladesh's May cargo is already at risk. I am watching both things on the same Tuesday morning — a pre-budget signal that may or may not mean what it says, and a geopolitical signal that may or may not hold. This is what running a business in Dhaka feels like right now. Very high stakes. Very low certainty.
— Founder · Tuesday morning · Dhaka