ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
THURSDAY, 7 MAY 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Last issue before weekend
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
This week in Bangladesh economy — May 4–7
Mon: ERL crude ship arrived · GDP slowed to 3.03% in Q2 ·
Tue: IMF blocks $1.3B tranche · PM named TIME 100 ·
Wed: USTR in Dhaka — zero tariff still unactivated · ADB commits $1.4B ·
Thu: ACU payment $1.51B — reserves to dip · DSEX 4-day losing streak · Iran deal hopes shift everything globally
Bangladesh pays $1.51B ACU import bill — reserves to dip below $35B today
Bangladesh Bank on May 6 confirmed the country has settled $1.51 billion in import bills under the Asian Clearing Union (ACU) — the bimonthly payment mechanism that clears regional trade dues with India, Iran, Sri Lanka and six other member states. Gross reserves stood at $35.33 billion at close of May 6; under the IMF BPM6 standard, they were at $30.67 billion. The ACU payment will cause both numbers to fall in the coming days, as settlement lag typically takes 2–3 business days to reflect. The previous ACU bill (Jan–Feb) was $1.36 billion, so this cycle's payment is higher — consistent with the higher crude import costs from the Hormuz crisis and alternative-route freight premiums. The timing is notable: Bangladesh is simultaneously receiving $1 billion in ADB budget support and awaiting the release of the delayed IMF tranche. Reserves are holding, but the margin is being tested from both sides at once.
DSEX loses Tk 6,300 crore in market cap over three days — four-session losing streak
The Dhaka Stock Exchange closed Wednesday at 5,248 points, extending its losing streak to a fourth consecutive session. Market capitalisation fell by approximately Tk 6,300 crore over three trading sessions. The DS30 blue-chip index dropped 8 points to 2,009. The NBFI (non-bank financial institution) sector was hit hardest — Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance and International Leasing all fell 8.69%. The CSE saw a 37% jump in turnover even as prices declined. EBL Securities noted broad-based selling pressure, absence of fresh catalysts, and investor caution over the IMF tranche delay, fuel crisis uncertainty and austerity measure fears. The DSEX has now fallen ~90 points in a week from its recent high of ~5,337.
Bangladesh seeks crude refining deal with India — Hormuz crisis forcing energy diplomacy
With Eastern Refinery running on alternative-route crude and Fujairah now a war-zone port, Bangladesh is in active talks with India to explore a crude refining arrangement — sending raw crude to Indian refineries and receiving refined products in return. This is a significant structural shift: Bangladesh has historically imported finished petroleum, not crude for domestic refining. The talks reflect the depth of the Hormuz supply shock and the government's acknowledgment that a single refinery and a single alt-route is not a durable solution for a country that imports 95% of its fuel.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.59 ৳
Xe mid-market · May 7, 8 AM (03:33 UTC)
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~17.96 ৳
Live · May 7, 8 AM (01:00 UTC)
DSEX (Last Close, 6 May)
5,248.37 pts
▼ −18.86 pts · −0.36% · 4th consecutive loss
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪২,৪৯৫ ৳
Last updated Apr 30 · BAJUS
Inflation Rate (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Eased from 9.13% · Food: 8.24%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Gross Forex (May 6, BB)
$35.33B
▼ ACU $1.51B payment — reserves to dip
IMF BPM6 (May 6)
$30.67B
▼ Pre-ACU adjustment · Will fall in 2–3 days
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Iran–US Deal (BREAKING) | Axios: US and Iran near preliminary agreement — framework for nuclear talks · Iranian FM: Tehran "evaluating" US 14-point proposal · Trump: deal "not certain" but "great progress" · Wall St surged; Brent crashed 8%+ on peace hopes |
| Brent Crude (May 6 close) | ~$101/bbl ▼ −8.1% on day — biggest single-day drop since March · Trading range May 6: $96.77–$110.84 · Down from $114.44 peak on May 4 · Early May 7: ~$100 |
| WTI Crude (May 6 close) | ~$93/bbl ▼ −9%+ · Trump paused "Project Freedom" citing deal progress · US emptying strategic reserves to cap prices |
| Strait of Hormuz | 23,000 seafarers still stranded · Two US-escorted ships successfully transited · If deal signed, Hormuz reopening expected in weeks, not days · Goldman: full shipping normalisation takes weeks |
| Wall St (May 6 close — RECORDS) | S&P 500 +1.46% → 7,365 (record) · Nasdaq +2.02% → 25,839 (record) · Dow +612 pts → 49,911 · AMD +18% · Disney +6.6% on Q2 beat · Micron +11% · Corning +17% (Nvidia optical deal) · Russell 2000 +1.75% · Best day since Feb |
| AMD · Disney · Corning | AMD Q1: Revenue $10.3B (+38%) · Disney Q2: EPS $1.57 beat; revenue $25.17B · Corning +17%: Nvidia partnership for AI optical fibre · Micron surpassed $700B market cap · Arm +8% after-hours on beat |
| US FOMC Result (May 7) | Decision today — market pricing 100% hold at 3.50–3.75% · Likely Powell's final FOMC as chair · New chair Kevin Warsh favours lower rates over time · No cut expected in 2026 |
| US CPI / Jobs (Upcoming) | April CPI due May 12 · NFP (non-farm payrolls) due May 8 · ADP April jobs: +109,000 — below expectations; labour market softening |
| Bitcoin (May 6) | ~$79,500 · Tracking equity recovery · Gold futures $4,530/oz (−1.1% on Iran deal hopes) |
| Asian Markets (May 7 open) | Opening sharply higher · Kospi +6.45% yesterday → 7,385 (record); Samsung +14%, crossed $1T market cap · Asia tracking Wall St records + oil price crash + Iran deal optimism |
| Spirit Airlines | In bankruptcy liquidation — forced to shut down by Iran-war jet fuel spike · Last flights Friday · 8,000 jobs lost · US aviation absorbing another low-cost collapse |
| BD–US Tariff | USTR delegation final day in Dhaka (May 5–7) · Zero tariff for US-cotton RMG still unactivated · Commerce Minister meeting today · NFP and ADB reports next week |
| Goldman Sachs | Iran deal: Brent could fall to $75–80 if Hormuz reopens and inventories rebuild · Downside scenario: demand destruction already in pipeline; correction likely regardless of war outcome |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
Week's Signal
This week confirmed something important about AI's direction. Nvidia partnered with Corning to build dedicated optical-fibre AI infrastructure in the US. AMD reported 38% revenue growth driven entirely by AI data centre chips. Disney's new CEO used AI to cut content costs and streaming improved margins by 50% YoY. The common thread: AI is now a manufacturing and infrastructure story, not just software. For Dhaka's professionals, the practical translation is this — every company in your supply chain that supplies to the US, Europe or East Asia is now building AI into procurement, design, or quality control. Bangladesh's RMG sector will face buyers in 2027 who expect AI-assisted compliance documentation, factory sustainability reporting, and production forecasting as table stakes — not innovations. The time to start is not when buyers ask. It's now, when starting costs you nothing but time.
CNBC · TheStreet · AMD / Disney / Corning Q2 Reports · May 5–6, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
The week started with a ship arriving with crude. It ends with a potential peace deal that could make that ship's alt-route unnecessary. Brent fell 8% in a day on a rumour. The stock market hit a record. Oil analysts who spent last Tuesday warning of $140 crude are now modelling $75. The thing about energy crises is that they can end faster than they begin — one agreement, one paragraph, one Axios story. But the structural damage stays: Bangladesh borrowed over $1.13 billion in redirected development funds to cover energy costs. The ACU bill just came in at $1.51 billion. We are paying for the crisis even as the crisis potentially ends. Friday before the weekend. Next week, April CPI arrives May 12. The IMF question does not go away. The USTR left Dhaka without activating the zero tariff. The numbers that matter are still outstanding.
— Founder · Thursday morning · Last issue this week · Dhaka