ORAWEK
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SUNDAY, 10 MAY 2026
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Bangladesh Business & Economy
Bangladesh is in an "energy trap" — $12 billion in fuel imports annually, and the renewable transition is stalled
Business leaders and energy experts delivered a blunt diagnosis this week: Bangladesh has moved past a crisis into a structural "energy trap." The country spends ~$12 billion annually on fuel imports — and with global prices elevated by the Hormuz disruption, that bill is projected to rise by a further $4.8 billion, equivalent to 1.1% of GDP. The Bangladesh Chamber of Industries warned of a daily electricity shortfall of 1,500–2,000 MW, with 71 of 143 power plants either idle or underperforming. The structural failure is a decade of delay on renewables: Bangladesh needs 760 MW of new renewable capacity annually to hit its 2030 targets, but only 358 MW was in the pipeline as of February. Renewables account for just 2.3% of power generation against a global average of 33.8%. IEEFA has warned that additional LNG subsidies for April–June could exceed $1.07 billion — at a time when the IMF is pressing Dhaka to cut subsidies, not expand them.
US trade envoy visits Dhaka — ART implementation talks, BD garment sector seeks tariff clarity
A US Trade Representative delegation led by Assistant USTR Brendan Lynch visited Dhaka on May 5–7 — the first US trade envoy visit since the BNP government took office in February. Talks focused on implementing the US–Bangladesh Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART). Under the deal, Bangladesh has committed to import significant US agricultural volumes including 700,000 tonnes of wheat annually for five years, plus soybeans and cotton. Bangladesh's garment exporters used the visit to press for clarity on how the promised near-zero reciprocal tariff will apply to apparel made with American cotton inputs. The current BD–US tariff stands at 19%, down from the threatened 37%, but terms remain contested. Commerce Minister Muktadir said the agreement must generate "win-win" outcomes; a legal challenge to the deal's constitutional validity is simultaneously before the High Court.
IMF blocks Bangladesh's $1.3 billion tranche — reform failures cited, new programme proposed
The IMF declined to disburse the next $1.3 billion tranche of Bangladesh's $5.5 billion loan programme at the April IMF–World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, citing four failures: weak revenue collection, poor banking sector discipline, slow subsidy reduction, and no market-based exchange rate. The IMF's Asia-Pacific Director Krishna Srinivasan said publicly: "With a new government holding a significant majority, this is the right time to undertake ambitious reforms — we will wait to see how they respond." Bangladesh still has $1.86 billion uncollected before the programme expires in January 2027. The IMF has proposed negotiating a new programme with stricter conditions. The government rejected media reports of a "suspension," calling them "completely false" — but acknowledged key issues remain unresolved, with further talks planned within 15–20 days of the Spring Meetings.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.70 ৳
BB interbank close · Fri 8 May · Market closed Sun
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~18.06 ৳
Xe mid-market · 10 May 8 AM
DSEX (last close, 7 May)
5,234.10 pts
▼ −14.27 pts · −0.27% · Last update 7 May, 2:30 PM
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪৪,৭১১ ৳
▲ +Tk 2,216 · Effective 7 May 2026
Inflation Rate (Feb '26, BBS)
9.13%
▲ 10-month high · IMF FY26 est: 8.9%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
~36%
▲ ~25-year high of total credit
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (8 May) | ~$101/bbl ▲ Down ~7% on week as Trump confirmed ceasefire held despite US–Iran clashes; floor above $100 holds |
| WTI Crude (8 May) | ~$94.7/bbl ▲ US gasoline stocks down 12 consecutive weeks; distillate fuel stocks down 9 weeks |
| Strait of Hormuz | Effectively closed · ~10th week · ~14M bpd disrupted · ~20,000 seafarers stranded on ~2,000 vessels — IMO calls it unprecedented |
| Iran War / Ceasefire | Ceasefire technically in place; US struck Iranian military targets after Hormuz attacks. Iran sent updated peace proposal via Pakistan. Trump: "not satisfied." Awaiting counter-response this week |
| IEA Warning | War disrupting ~14M bpd · Post-conflict recovery will be slow: infrastructure damage, insurer reluctance, mine-clearing required |
| Goldman Sachs | Global oil stocks ~101 days of demand; could fall to 98 days by end-May · Sharpest product shortage risks: South Asia, India, Thailand, Taiwan |
| Wall St (8 May close) | S&P 500 +0.84% → 7,398 (record) · Dow +0.02% → 49,609 · Nasdaq +1.71% → 26,247 · AI infrastructure stocks led all week |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% · Held Apr 29 (3rd consecutive hold, 4 dissents — first since 1992) · New Chair Kevin Warsh takes over May 15 |
| Bitcoin (8 May) | ~$80,350 Dipped below $80K briefly on US–Iran strikes; recovered to close above |
| US CPI & Jobs | April payrolls +115K (vs ~60K expected) · Unemployment 4.3% · Markets pricing zero Fed changes rest of 2026 · Rate hike risk persists if energy inflation stays elevated |
| US–China Trade | US tariffs on China ~45%; BD RMG exporters watching for order diversion · Garment investment into BD tracking higher this quarter |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% base rate held · ART implementation talks completed May 5–7 in Dhaka · Legal challenge to ART before High Court |
| India–BD Relation | India supplying diesel via pipeline · BD seeking $3B additional ADB support for energy cost overruns · West Bengal state elections closely watched in Dhaka |
| Asian Markets (9 May) | Japan Nikkei at new records for the week (+~5.7%) on AI earnings and ceasefire optimism · Monday open expected to track Wall St record close |
| Israel–Lebanon | Israel agreed to negotiate with Lebanon · Fragile parallel front to Iran ceasefire — no deal yet |
| Saudi Arabia / RMG | Iraq offering Hormuz-transit buyers steep crude discounts · BD garment exports tracking strong YTD growth on China tariff diversion |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
OpenAI's ChatGPT for Excel and Google Sheets became generally available on May 5 for all plan levels including free. You type plain-language instructions in a sidebar inside your spreadsheet — "build a 3-year cash flow model," "find the error in this VLOOKUP," "summarise this 40-tab sales file" — and the AI edits your cells directly, without copy-pasting. It runs on GPT-5.5 and is available globally. For Dhaka professionals who work in finance, operations, and consulting and spend hours in spreadsheets, this is the most immediately practical AI release of 2026. The gap between people who use this fluently and those who do not will be visible to managers within weeks. Install it from the Excel ribbon under Add-ins → search "ChatGPT."
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Sunday morning in Dhaka, and the week opens with three things that don't fit together neatly. The remittance numbers are extraordinary — $30 billion in ten months. The energy numbers are alarming — $12 billion going out annually on fuel, and barely 2% of power coming from renewables. And now the IMF has walked away from the table, telling a brand-new government with a large majority: the time for reform is now. These three things are connected. The dollars coming in from workers abroad are financing an energy system that is structurally fragile. If oil stays above $100 for another year, those inflows will not be enough. What happens in the next two months — the FY27 budget, the IMF negotiations, the energy commission's report — will define more of Bangladesh's economic trajectory than anything in the past five years.
— Founder · Sunday morning · Dhaka